Blizzard of 93

CTP is on board with our Tuesday snow chance. This is from their discussion today: Into the mid and long range period, there remains plenty of model spread and forecast uncertainty. However, a very busy pattern looks in store, with broad consensus that some phasing of northern and southern stream energy over the state late Tuesday or early Wednesday will support a gradually strengthening area of low pressure with the potential for a light to moderate snowfall/mixed precip event.

The 0z & 6z model runs continued the positive trend for some CTP snow on Tuesday. The LSV, especially those areas near I-81, now look to be in play for the chance at a couple of inches of snow by late Tuesday. Here is the 6z GFS.

@pasnownut & @MAG5035 What are your thoughts on the Saturday pm to Sunday am winter storm potential?

The 18z EPS looks good for the overnight Sunday potential.

The 18z Euro improved the chance of some snow for us overnight Saturday into Sunday am.

Happy New Year everyone! We have the chance at a couple of winter weather events this week. The first chance is Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will depend on if a secondary low develops, & if so, the location will determine if we can get a little snow out of it. Here is the 12z Canadian & Euro.

I thought that with the year ending, today would be a good time to post this chart that CTP has on their website that shows the Harrisburg snow totals since 1980. Looking back on the last 40 years is a good reminder that some of our memorable snow years were surrounded by bad snow seasons. The best example of that is the epic seasons of 93-94 & 95-96 had the terrible winter of 94-95 sandwiched in the middle. I can’t imagine the sad state of this place During the run of bad winters of 05-06 to 08-09 or the pitiful period snow between 96-97 to 01-02. This chart is a good reminder that for many years, snow lovers suffer while waiting for a good or great or even average winter season in our area. Harrisburg has been on a very good run recently, with 5 out of the last 6 years exceeding the 30.9 inch average seasonal snow total.

The middle of next week still has potential to provide us with a snow storm. The 0z models had the Euro showing a cutter, the Canadian was close with an inland runner, & the GFS said “what storm?”. There is still lots of time to determine our chances for PA Farm Show week.

I can’t wait until it snows next week so we have something to discuss other than weeds.

Yes, the 0z Euro, 0z Canadian & 6z GFS all like the idea of a winter storm around the 7th of January.

The old PA Farm Show snow rule could be in effect this year. This is the best looking GEFS run that I have seen in some time. Of course, take snow maps at long range with a grain of salt, but for the purpose of spotting trends, they help to tell the possible story. Most of the snow on this 6z GEFS map falls during the Farm Show week! It looks like the possibility of a few events. There are some nice hits among the individual ensemble members.

Yes, that was a nice track on the Euro. It looks like the period just after this storm that you mentioned will turn favorable for winter storm chances. The GEFS is quite cold & active with chances beginning just after next weekend through the following week. When is the PA farm show this year ? Maybe for once that will help to bring us some snow ?!

There should be a colder period developing next weekend. The question will then be if it will lock in or move out after the following week. The MJO & EPO will have a lot to say about how the pattern will evolve. If the MJO can take a longer loop through phase 7 & 8 as some models indicated yesterday, then that could help the pattern turn more favorable for winter weather in the east. The EPS yesterday showed the EPO heading toward & staying near neutral territory over the next couple of weeks. The SOI also has been very negative against it’s base state for the last 4 days with values near -20. Hopefully we will be back to Winter storm tracking as we head into the the New Year.

Merry Christmas everyone ! The 0z GFS had a gift for us which would get delivered on January 5th in the form of a coastal storm.

The 12z GFS agrees with you.

Thanks MAG ! I think that we will be actively tracking a winter storm threat between New Year’s & the end of the first week of the new year.

The 12z GEFS supports the Canadian with a winter storm chance around the 30th.

The 12z Canadian has a 1-2 punch of snow for us with the first round hitting next Sunday & then the second round arriving on the 30th lasting into New Year’s Eve. If only we could go ahead & lock this in !

There is decent agreement between the EPS, GEFS & Canadian ensembles on the overall pattern for the first week of January.

The best that I could do in terms of finding snow at 12z is the Canadian on New Year’s Eve & the GFS on January 5th.

I like most of your posts. I’m not just looking for positive posts. I think that you always bring good information & I think you are entertaining. For example, I liked the bowling ball post. As long as posters back up their information with something, then sure, they should go ahead & post all their negative “we’re doomed” thoughts. I just don’t like when one of our good posters puts up a quality post, & then someone comes on here & says “meh” or “probably not” or “I have a bad feeling” while adding Nothing of any value whatsoever to the conversation. Again @Bubbler86, this is not you, but just just in general. We have a guy on here that despite a winter storm warning for 6-12 inches, will come on here & say “I bet MDT is lucky to get an inch”, based on nothing but trying to stir people up. That kind of stuff gets tiring & can push good posters away.

I think that some of us did a good job over the last week calling out some of the “meh” posters. Hopefully they keep it to a minimum this year unless they can post things to back up their negative or “we’re doomed” comments. I’m not ever going to let them stop me from posting quality information or having a good discussion with you or some of the better posters in here.

The 0z EPS & 0z GEFS continue to develop a good look during the first few days of January.

I liked that storm as well. It was a fun storm to track on this forum. I know that we can occasionally get snow into early April, but the March of 18 storm helped me to set a new boundary for when heavy snow is still possible. Before this storm, my “cut off” for heavy snow in my mind was closer to March 15th. Hopefully we get a big storm around March 28th one year so I can push my boundary out more!

1. ) March 1993 - 24 inches of snow, crazy sustained wind with gusts & heavy drifting. The impacts up & down the east coast were historic. This storm is what made me fall in love with the weather. I can’t imagine what this forum would be like if we ever had a storm approach that magnitude. 2.) January 2016 - 30 inches of snow that shattered the all time record at MDT by 6 inches. I know that records are made to be broken, but I don’t know if we will beat that in my lifetime. 3.) February 2003 - The President’s Day storm was spectacular because of its duration & frigid temperatures during the first half of that storm. That Sunday morning light to moderate snow began with temps near 10 degrees if I recall correctly. The low was still back in the southern Plains, but precip stretched the whole way to the east coast. It snowed all day Sunday, & then the coastal portion of the storm took over. We had heavy snow until almost noon on Monday & ended up with 24 inches.