Blizzard of 93

The 12z GFS agrees with you.

Thanks MAG ! I think that we will be actively tracking a winter storm threat between New Year’s & the end of the first week of the new year.

The 12z GEFS supports the Canadian with a winter storm chance around the 30th.

The 12z Canadian has a 1-2 punch of snow for us with the first round hitting next Sunday & then the second round arriving on the 30th lasting into New Year’s Eve. If only we could go ahead & lock this in !

There is decent agreement between the EPS, GEFS & Canadian ensembles on the overall pattern for the first week of January.

The best that I could do in terms of finding snow at 12z is the Canadian on New Year’s Eve & the GFS on January 5th.

I like most of your posts. I’m not just looking for positive posts. I think that you always bring good information & I think you are entertaining. For example, I liked the bowling ball post. As long as posters back up their information with something, then sure, they should go ahead & post all their negative “we’re doomed” thoughts. I just don’t like when one of our good posters puts up a quality post, & then someone comes on here & says “meh” or “probably not” or “I have a bad feeling” while adding Nothing of any value whatsoever to the conversation. Again @Bubbler86, this is not you, but just just in general. We have a guy on here that despite a winter storm warning for 6-12 inches, will come on here & say “I bet MDT is lucky to get an inch”, based on nothing but trying to stir people up. That kind of stuff gets tiring & can push good posters away.

I think that some of us did a good job over the last week calling out some of the “meh” posters. Hopefully they keep it to a minimum this year unless they can post things to back up their negative or “we’re doomed” comments. I’m not ever going to let them stop me from posting quality information or having a good discussion with you or some of the better posters in here.

The 0z EPS & 0z GEFS continue to develop a good look during the first few days of January.

I liked that storm as well. It was a fun storm to track on this forum. I know that we can occasionally get snow into early April, but the March of 18 storm helped me to set a new boundary for when heavy snow is still possible. Before this storm, my “cut off” for heavy snow in my mind was closer to March 15th. Hopefully we get a big storm around March 28th one year so I can push my boundary out more!

1. ) March 1993 - 24 inches of snow, crazy sustained wind with gusts & heavy drifting. The impacts up & down the east coast were historic. This storm is what made me fall in love with the weather. I can’t imagine what this forum would be like if we ever had a storm approach that magnitude. 2.) January 2016 - 30 inches of snow that shattered the all time record at MDT by 6 inches. I know that records are made to be broken, but I don’t know if we will beat that in my lifetime. 3.) February 2003 - The President’s Day storm was spectacular because of its duration & frigid temperatures during the first half of that storm. That Sunday morning light to moderate snow began with temps near 10 degrees if I recall correctly. The low was still back in the southern Plains, but precip stretched the whole way to the east coast. It snowed all day Sunday, & then the coastal portion of the storm took over. We had heavy snow until almost noon on Monday & ended up with 24 inches.

I also like being near the boundary in the middle of winter. We would have some hits & misses, but at least would be in the game every storm. It would sure beat a cold & dry pattern where we would chase clippers & deal with suppressing storms to the south.

Yes, they have many good posters in the Mid-Atlantic forum. I have learned a ton from the main posters down there over the years. I think that we have several knowledgeable posters here in our forum. I think that whenever one of us provides a quality post, it promotes good discussion. I would absolutely love to see more quality posts here, but if no one gets things started, it stays kind of quiet. @pasnownut , I see some of your posts down in the Mid Atlantic forum & I wonder to myself, “ why doesn’t he post that kind of good stuff in the Central PA forum?” My point is, even if it seems quiet in here, if you or any of us, provide a good quality post, usually it will get a good conversation started. The last few days have been awesome in here. I didn’t have time to post due to work & holiday festivities, but it was a great read whenever I had the chance to check in here.

Yes, I also lurk there every day. The main posters there like @psuhoffman , @Bob Chill & several others have a ton of knowledge & good posting style that make it informative, easy to read, & they are entertaining. I don’t post there often, but I look forward to reading their posts everyday.

Yes, I remember opening presents with my parents maybe around 8 or 9am & the rain changed to thumping heavy snow! I was in my mid-20’s at the time, but it was absolutely magical, like something right out of the Christmas songs. I had rented a truck the day before so that I could take us from Harrisburg to Mechanicsburg to my grandparents house for Christmas dinner. That was one heck of a ride in the driving snow, even with a 4x4 truck!

No one anywhere is saying mid to late January until the next snow chance...

Looking over the 12z EPS, there are also signs of a system approaching from the south around the 30th that could have some winter weather potential.

Yes, there is a little hope on the 12z Euro that our break in the action pattern will have some winter weather. Normals really go down as we head into late December, & of course we need it to be just cold enough to snow. Sometimes we can luck into minor snow events even in a not good looking pattern. Here is the 12z Euro for late 12/26 into 12/27.

Arrived home to a solid coating of snow in Marysville. It felt like winter today with on & off flurries & snow showers.

I’m going to go to sleep tonight dreaming of this classic Miller A that you described !

Yes, I couldn’t agree more with this. We have lost several good posters over the years. There used to be some red tag guys, especially from around the State College & Altoona areas, that no longer post here. I know that the NYC & Philly threads have had the same problem. Many of their good posters have created their own weather forums or left for other boards. Last year Bob Chill stopped posting for a long time because he was frustrated with all of the whining in the Mid Atlantic forum. So yes, we must persevere through the bad times, while we look forward to better winter weather days that lie ahead.

Yes & I just saw your posts tonight in the Mid Atlantic thread.... there are a few of us that are nowhere close to the ledge. The winter game is just getting started !

The MJO looks like it will emerge next week from the COD & head into phase 6 but then quickly go into phase 7 at a low amplitude. Phases 7,8,1 & 2 are the good phases for cold & snow in the heart of winter in the northeast. In the meantime, with the MJO in the COD & operating at low amplitude, this should let other pattern drivers take over if they have any strength.

Yes, 100% agree that we need a banter thread. The baseless comments that add no value to the thread should go to banter. Also, it couldn’t hurt to have a place where we could have a little fun & go a little off topic every now & then.

Yes, this place is awesome during the week before a great snowstorm!