Blizzard of 93

Where is our friend from Williamsport these days?

Yes, if we get into the wrap around deform band for a little while, we could be in store for a little more snow. We just need to see how it all plays out. Here is that 12z NAM panel & another view of the snow map.

Just for fun, here is that HRRR 12z run snow total map. If only....

I just ripped this gem of an HRRR run from the Mid Atlantic thread that was recently posted there.

The 6z EPS ensemble still keeps the LSV in the in the game for 1 to 2 inches of snow tomorrow.

Dew points are in the low to mid 20’s for most of CTP. Surface Temps will go down even further when precip begins.

There seems to be a consensus at this time with the global ensembles today. The LSV looks to be in the 1 to 2 inch of snow range, with amounts increasing the further north & east that you go in PA.

Good morning @MAG5035 Please let us know your thoughts on this complex storm for CTP.

The Winter Weather Advisory has now been added to include the LSV. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 354 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-302200- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.191201T0600Z-191201T1800Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 354 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain developing late tonight and changing to primarily freezing before daybreak. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Untreated roads and sidewalks could be icy Sunday morning

Here are the latest NAMs for 18z (1pm) Sunday .

Yes, in the afternoon, many of us will warm above freezing. In the early morning through midday, ice will probably cause problems on some roads even in the LSV.

This map is for 21z...late afternoon on Sunday..., i am merely saying that Ice will be a problem at least in the morning hours. Sure, it will warm up in the afternoon. Why downplay the chance of ice ? Countless times over the years ice has held on for hours after originally forecast. Also, it only takes a small amount of ice to cause a massive problem on the roads.

The LSV is notorious for holding on to low level cold air. Please see the short range & meso models. Ice will be a problem Sunday am in the LSV & all of CTP.

Add the latest RGEM to the LSV being included in the frozen frozen precip early Sunday.

Winter Storm Watches & Advisories are flying all over our region for tomorrow night through Monday. I think that we will see the advisories added for at least 1 more layer of counties to the south & even possibly for all of us north of the MD line. Many models have shown front end frozen precip for the MD line & north for several days. The models even have had this area in play for a little snow from the Upper level low & coastal low that develops on Monday. The short range High Res models, along with the Euro should lock in on this over the next 24 hours. The 18z NAMs have most of the LSV starting as an icy mix tomorrow night. Maybe CTP wants to see one or 2 more model cycles before they add the LSV to the Advisory.

The 12z NAM brings in the sleet & freezing rain Overnight Saturday night & lasts through at least midday Sunday. Then Sunday night into Monday we flip back to snow with the interaction of the upper level low & the coastal. Snow amounts will depend on the final track & if anyone in CTP gets under any decent banding.

The last 2 runs of the EPS get most of CTP into a few inches of snow with the passing of the upper level low & the coastal low. It will be interesting to see how these pieces interact & track over the next couple of days. Either way, it looks like Sunday morning will be an icy mess of sleet & freezing rain. Hopefully the front end trends slightly colder so we could mix in a little snow before the flip to ice. Then the waiting game will be underway to see how nicely the upper level low & coastal decide to play.

So, we lost power in Marysville around 830am! The turkey had been roasting for 2 & a half hours when the power went out. I did some quick googling & learned that a turkey can be cooked on the grill. I fired up the gas grill & transferred the turkey from the oven to the grill. Thankfully I didn’t run out of propane. 3 hours later, the turkey was done right on time despite the power problem. It turned out to be good & tasty & was enjoyed by our family. Luckily, the power came back by the time our guests arrived around Noon. This will certainly be a memorable Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I just stepped outside to grab something out of the car trunk & I thought that I was going to have lift off down the street!

The 18z EPS came in a little colder & provided a slight uptick in snow amounts for the weekend storm.

I need some advice concerning this High Wind Advisory for tonight & tomorrow. I am roasting a 20 pound turkey tomorrow morning and I am a little concerned about the possibility of a power outage ruining my family’s Thanksgiving Turkey. Do you guys think that there will be many power outages in the area ? If so, should I consider roasting the turkey this evening & then heating it up tomorrow before I carve it ? I just don’t want an outage tomorrow to mess up the turkey in the middle of the roasting.

There is Wind Advisory tonight & tomorrow! In your honor, I secured my trash cans !

Slight improvement in the snow department on the 6z EPS for our weekend storm.

The 0z Euro & CMC Ensembles both show a few inches of snow from the weekend system, primarily with the front end. The question then becomes how much impact do we see from the interaction between the upper low & coastal low.

CTP had a very well written & very exciting Forecast Discussion this evening. Here is what they said about this weekend’s event: The bigger impact weather visits our region for an approx 48 hour period from Sat afternoon through Monday afternoon. Operational Models and Ensemble Forecast Systems (EFS) then begin to differ (to a relatively minor degree) with the onset of the precip Sat afternoon/evening (as mainly snow/sleet). Then, the spread with precip type widens for Sat night through Sunday night as the GFS/GEFS are about 6-10 hour faster than the EC model suite for the location of the closed, 528-533 dam upper low over the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and Delmarva Coast. Worth noting though is the favorable track of the well-defined mid/upper level feature for a classic one-two, winter storm punch comprised of significant frozen/freezing precipitation within the warm conveyor belt, then a changeover to cold conveyor belt moderate snow with the potential for embedded, mesoscale bands of heavy snow with the low to mid-level deformation area. We have taken the middle ground of the GEFS/EC and Nat`l Blend of Models for precip timing and type for now, and expect that models/EFS will be steadily converging over the next day or two, to give us a much better idea of the target areas and timing of significant icing potential from freezing rain/snow, then heavy snow during the second half of the storm Sunday into Monday. Although high temps Saturday will be above freezing (initially) in the mid 30s (north) to upper 30s and low 40s (south), very dry air and sub- freezing Wet Bulb temps throughout all layers of the atmos will support a 4-8 hour period of light to moderate snow later Sat afternoon and night before warm advection aloft nudges max wet bulb temps aloft to about 1-4C late Sat night/Sunday to bring a wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Heights/thickness crash later Sunday into early Monday as the potent 700-500 mb low slides by near the Mason/Dixon Line.