Blizzard of 93

Also, the 18z EPS still has a good storm signal for this weekend at the end of its run at 144 Hours. Let’s see what the 0z runs have to say.

Great post ! Also, did you see the 18z GFS ? That would be a heck of a 2 weeks if that were to come close to verifying.

I’m just rooting for team North America from the 12z runs today that I posted earlier.

You mentioned the JMA & yes it is wide right at 12z for next weekend.

The 12z EPS still has a storm signal along the east coast next weekend.

The Euro is no go for next weekend’s winter storm chance, but the 12z GFS & Canadian say that we are very much in the game for a coastal storm. It will all come down to how nicely the northern stream & southern stream end up working together or against each other. We still have 6 days to try to figure it out.

Thanks man ! I just really enjoy tracking winter storms & this place has a great group ! Hopefully next weekend we are all shoveling, but lots of time to see how things unfold for the better or worse.

The 18z GFS shows a deepening low riding up the east coast next weekend. It strengthens from the 990s in the Carolinas to the 970’s by the time it reaches our latitude & then into the 960’s off of the New England coast. Verbatim, this run, the snow stays near I-81, but it would take only a small adjustment to get even our eastern locales into the good snow. I would take my chances with this run.

The 12z Euro has a deepening coastal storm that develops in the southeast & rides up the coast as it strengthens. To me, the precip shield looks underdone with a storm that deepens from 996 off of the NC coast to 987 near Norfolk then down to 971 off of the NJ coast. I would take my chances with this look for back here in the Susquehanna Valley. We are still 1 week out & the track & strength will of course vary with each model run. I am getting more confident that the models are leaning towards the idea of a coastal storm instead of a cutter or suppressed storm.

Coastal storms usually bring good precip, so we should be good. There is no torch this week, just slightly above average for late January can get it done here.

Exactly, tracking a legit threat is part of the fun of this hobby. We are in the game. If we get a good tracking coastal this time of year, we have a chance here in the interior.

Exactly, this feels like the old times, with the GFS out to sea. Much better than showing a cutter !

It just has to be cold enough, & southern Canada looks plenty cold. A decent coastal will work just fine this time of year.

That’s a nice start to the 12z models today!

Yes, This is what I’m getting at. Southeast modeled snow usually corrects to the north. Much better than seeing Midwest snow & hoping it corrects south or east, which rarely happens. This time, the possible solutions are different. We haven’t seen looks this year with suppression even being a possibility.

We just need a decent storm track that goes under us to our east while the low is strengthening. We are still in peak climo for winter temps. The I-95 crowd might struggle unless they get a perfect track. Back here in the interior, we stand a better chance with a slightly less than ideal track. I would be fine with a run 3-6 or 4-8 inch type of snowstorm. The chance of a magical 1-2 feet historic snow storm is always remote. I do like the change this time that suppression is on the table. That gives us a wide range of potential, & supports the idea of a storm possibly going under us. We will see what 12z has to say in the game of weather model roulette.

The models are now playing the back & forth game for next weekend. The GFS went from Apps runner to suppressed southern slider. The Euro went from near perfect track major snowstorm yesterday to a suppressed southern slider overnight. All solutions are on the table for a few more days. We have played this game many times over the years. Hopefully this time we end up winning a winter storm this time !

These pictures of snow in the mountains & up in northern PA this morning show that we could have been close to a good storm if the track ended up near some of the earlier in the week modeled ideas. Even with a bad track, it was just cold enough to get some places enough snow to cause problems this morning.

@canderson , should we all secure our trash cans yet again ?

It looks like we are back in business for next weekend ! & just for the record I was born in 1977, so I was 15 when the Blizzard of 93 hit !

We should have plenty to track over the next few weeks. It looks like we might be back in the game by the end of next week. If we keep taking swings, we will eventually hit one. Then maybe we will keep hitting until the end of March ?

Yes, that was a classic! It was 1 Euro run a couple of days before the storm that gave us “only” 10- 15 inches of snow instead of 2 feet plus, & he cancelled the storm! Those NAM runs were epic! I remember saying to people that I’d never seen amounts like that show up on a weather model for my backyard on the day of a storm, & then it verified!

I agree with you, all that we can ask for are chances for snow. I would almost rather have this with chances at moisture laden storms that might or might not give us snow, instead of weeks of extreme cold with dry frigid temps with occasional snow showers & Clippers. The next 2 weeks should present a few opportunities. I like the general concept late next week of 2 storms quickly following each other. If the first system doesn’t produce snow, then at least it can set the boundary for the next storm that could possibly come up the coast 2 days later.

Great discussion in here earlier today about snow totals over the decades. Here is a good chart from CTP that shows the snow totals since 1980 at Harrisburg, along with the average & median at the far right part of the chart.

Well, this weekend’s storm took a turn for the worse over the last day or 2.... But, it looks like we might have another chance Next weekend. One of these chances should work out if we keep getting opportunities.