Blizzard of 93

Yes, This is what I’m getting at. Southeast modeled snow usually corrects to the north. Much better than seeing Midwest snow & hoping it corrects south or east, which rarely happens. This time, the possible solutions are different. We haven’t seen looks this year with suppression even being a possibility.

We just need a decent storm track that goes under us to our east while the low is strengthening. We are still in peak climo for winter temps. The I-95 crowd might struggle unless they get a perfect track. Back here in the interior, we stand a better chance with a slightly less than ideal track. I would be fine with a run 3-6 or 4-8 inch type of snowstorm. The chance of a magical 1-2 feet historic snow storm is always remote. I do like the change this time that suppression is on the table. That gives us a wide range of potential, & supports the idea of a storm possibly going under us. We will see what 12z has to say in the game of weather model roulette.

The models are now playing the back & forth game for next weekend. The GFS went from Apps runner to suppressed southern slider. The Euro went from near perfect track major snowstorm yesterday to a suppressed southern slider overnight. All solutions are on the table for a few more days. We have played this game many times over the years. Hopefully this time we end up winning a winter storm this time !

These pictures of snow in the mountains & up in northern PA this morning show that we could have been close to a good storm if the track ended up near some of the earlier in the week modeled ideas. Even with a bad track, it was just cold enough to get some places enough snow to cause problems this morning.

@canderson , should we all secure our trash cans yet again ?

It looks like we are back in business for next weekend ! & just for the record I was born in 1977, so I was 15 when the Blizzard of 93 hit !

We should have plenty to track over the next few weeks. It looks like we might be back in the game by the end of next week. If we keep taking swings, we will eventually hit one. Then maybe we will keep hitting until the end of March ?

Yes, that was a classic! It was 1 Euro run a couple of days before the storm that gave us “only” 10- 15 inches of snow instead of 2 feet plus, & he cancelled the storm! Those NAM runs were epic! I remember saying to people that I’d never seen amounts like that show up on a weather model for my backyard on the day of a storm, & then it verified!

I agree with you, all that we can ask for are chances for snow. I would almost rather have this with chances at moisture laden storms that might or might not give us snow, instead of weeks of extreme cold with dry frigid temps with occasional snow showers & Clippers. The next 2 weeks should present a few opportunities. I like the general concept late next week of 2 storms quickly following each other. If the first system doesn’t produce snow, then at least it can set the boundary for the next storm that could possibly come up the coast 2 days later.

Great discussion in here earlier today about snow totals over the decades. Here is a good chart from CTP that shows the snow totals since 1980 at Harrisburg, along with the average & median at the far right part of the chart.

Well, this weekend’s storm took a turn for the worse over the last day or 2.... But, it looks like we might have another chance Next weekend. One of these chances should work out if we keep getting opportunities.

Yes, it’s going to be tough for York & Lancaster to get back in this one. But I think anyone along I -81 give or take a few miles & points west should still pay attention for now. I agree that the bullseye appears to be the mountains, but I would settle here for the scraps of a possible few inches of snow along I -81, just like last nights 0z GFS.

Great forecast discussion by CTP this morning. If you are near I -81 or north & west of that, you are still in the game. Here is CTP’s Discussion: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Focus in the long term remains on the increasing likelihood of a highly elevation dependent snow event impacting the region beginning Friday night and continuing through much of Sat night as a Miller-B type surface scenario accompanies a well defined upper low that will develop across the Mid Miss valley and track east across Southern or Central PA Sat night. The 700 mb center is progged to move east along I-80 in Ohio and PA. After a mainly cloudy and rather mild Friday with temps in the upper 30s to around 40F, the boundary layer is expected to start out warm enough for primarily rain right at the onset in most areas. However, layer cooling associated with increasing uvvel, and evap cooling as the precip falls into the dry LLVl air will help to mix or change the precip over to wet snow across parts of Central and likely most or all of Ncent PA. Height falls and 1000-500 mb thicknesses falling to below 540 DAM will allow the precip to change over to snow, that will fall at a moderate to heavy rate at times late Friday night and Saturday. Of particular interest will be later Saturday morning into Sat afternoon when elevated instability being transported north toward South-central PA and areas of fairly strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis could lead to some 1-2 inch per hour, heavy snowfall rates anywhere northwest of the I-81 corridor. Critical thickness and 850 mb zero wet bulb line will exist somewhere between I-99 and I-81 during the mid to late morning hours Saturday, and this is where the greatest uncertainty is with respect to precip type and intensity. Again, we`re messaging the point that the initially warm boundary layer and periods of strong, dynamic forcing will lead to a very elevation dependent snowfall across Central and Northern PA with notably lower chances for significant snow near and to the SE of I-81. Snow accums by late Sat night could approach 8 inches at elevations over 2000 ft MSL in northern PA with 4-6 inches possible at the same elevations in Central PA. Accums in the valleys (depending on their exact elevation) will vary from 3-5 inches in the north to between 1-3 inches in most of Central PA. The threat for any sleet and/or FZRA is very minimal at this point. Increased pops for Friday night into Sat as a result of the anomalous southeasterly low level jet (over 50 kts at 850 mb) and plume of Atlantic moisture overrunning a dome of cold/stable air east of the Appalachians. This justifies categorical POPs Friday night into Saturday. The latest GEFS mean qpf ranges from 0.6 to 1 inch across the forecast area by Saturday evening.

The 0z Euro & 6z GFS put the I-81 corridor out of the game for the weekend snow. They still do like @MAG5035 & @2001kx Still 3 days for shifts to determine the final storm development & track.

The western & northern parts of our counties (Perry for me & Franklin for you) also get crushed by the 0z GFS, along with Western Cumberland County as you mentioned. It is so close to getting the rest of the LSV in the game. This run @Bubbler86 , @sauss06 , @CarlislePaWx & @canderson and l need less than a 25 mile shift to get in the 6 inch plus snow range according to the GFS. In the meantime, the bullseye appears to be @MAG5035 & @2001kx , with honorable mention to @Wmsptwx We still have 3 days to shift the bullseye around & hopefully we all get in a piece of the snow action!

I was just having a little fun ! This one will come down to the wire for us in the LSV. Hopefully it trends right to get us all in the game.

Yes, same here with the EPS for several runs showing 3 inches of snow around the Harrisburg area.

I can’t wait until we extrapolate the end of the NAM run again in a few minutes...

The 12z EPS provided a little uptick in snow amounts for the LSV. Also still some different possibilities with the placement & track of the secondary.

The 18z GFS was a nice improvement for the I-81 & Rt.15 corridors.

Great discussion this morning from CTP. There is still lots of time & many factors to sort out. We are at least in the game. “LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Focus in the medium range continues to be on the increasing probability for another weekend winter storm, though there are some distinct differences with this storm compared to this past Saturday`s event. T the main feature that sticks out is the presence and favorable track of a distinct and fairly deep upper low across Central or Southern PA, this track implies a one-two punch of warm conveyor, then cold conveyor-belt precip. Ptype will be an issue across the SE third to perhaps half of our CWA, while parts of the Central Mtns and most or all of the Northern Mtns should be cold enough for all snow. Furthermore, FGEN banding and briefly heavy snow rates are possible late Friday Night/Sat morning as the mid-upper low center passes and max UVVEL intersects the descending, favorable thermal band for dendritic snow growth. Max wet bulb AOA 925 mb is about 1-2C along and to the SE of Interstate 81/I-78 corridor in Southern PA, while it`s AOB zero further north and west. Sfc temps should range from the L30s across the north, mid 30s in central PA, and Mid to Upper 30s in the SE. This vertical thermal structure and the primary nose of the warm layer aloft (and PWAT above 20mm) staying just below PA will likely result in a wet snowfall across Central PA and portions of southern PA (between and after a few to several hour change to sleet. The resulting anomalous southeasterly low level jet and plume of Atlantic moisture overrunning a dome of cold/stable air east of the Appalachians justifies increasing POPs Saturday to 90-100 percent at this day 3.5 - 4 time range. The latest GEFS mean qpf ranges from 0.6 to 1 inch across the forecast area by Saturday evening. GFS forecast soundings imply mostly snow even as far south as the greater Harrisburg area. Despite the high confidence of significant precipitation, plenty of uncertainty still remains with regard to ptypes across the area based on slightly different sfc and upper low tracks. The primary surface low is progged to weaken over the Ohio Valley Saturday, as secondary low deepens and tracks up the Mid Atlantic coast in classic Miller B fashion. Quicker development of the coastal low would imply low level winds backing from SE to NE, supplying cold air at low levels during the storm on Saturday. This would mean more wintry precip and less rain. Quicker development of the coastal low could also translate to better FGEN forcing/banding on the NW side of the developing low, which would translate to heavier precip and some dynamic cooling. It will be a couple of days before we have these answers. As always, it will be interesting to see how the hi-res guidance handles these features as the event comes in range. Based on the latest ECMWF ensemble 850temps and GEFS plumes, current forecast is for a wet snow NW half of the CWA and a wintry mix across much of the remainder of the forecast area Friday night into Saturday.”

It looks like the 6z GFS did the same thing with the late transfer, which was only good for snow in Northeast PA.

The 0z Euro was a forum divider The Harrisburg & west crew would celebrate while the east & southern tier would be upset. Still lots of time.

@MAG5035 It looks looks like the 0z GFS struggled to close off the secondary low until mostly too late to bring good snow, except to areas in Northeast PA. What are your thoughts on the run ?

The 18z EPS improved slightly over its 12z run. The mean low develops in southern VA & then tracks to the mouth of the Delaware Bay & then exits to the east.