Blizzard of 93

The 6z models all show a dusting to 1 inch of snow today for the LSV & a little more up towards I-80 is possible. @Itstrainingtime , it’s time for another “heavy coating” today !

The 0z Euro looks decent for the chance of a heavy coating of snow for most of CTP tomorrow.

@MAG5035 Any snow out your way currently? What are your thoughts for snow possibilities in your area & the Susquehanna Valley?

Radar looks fairly decent in western PA & most stations in the western half of PA are reporting light snow with temps in the low 30s as of 10pm.

The 18z GEFS had a nice uptick in colder solutions for later this week.

Yes, it’s nice to have cold air pressing in this time for a change this year. I agree, sometimes the models underestimate the cold air press. Also, once the cold pushes in, I’m not so sure that it will retreat much for that last storm for Friday am. Usually with this set up, each storm will ride up the boundary a little further south & east than the previous one. It should be an interesting week of tracking.

The 18z GFS continues the trend of getting colder for the boundary storm potentials for late Wednesday into Friday. There is now more mixed precip further south into MD. Some snow even gets into the LSV, except for the far southeast. This period is getting more interesting with each run.

Yes, the Euro did look icy for CTP later this week.

Here is the EPO forecast from the overnight EPS. A negative EPO is one of better way ways to get a cold & stormy pattern into the east.

The 12z GFS was a winter weather dream run. Besides the mixed potentials later next week, it has 2 more winter events over the next 2 weeks. First, it has a minor Clipper type storm next weekend. Then, it showed a major Miller B storm for Valentine’s Eve. It’s Shocking (inset sarcasm font...) to see that as soon as everyone (not in here necessarily) cancelled Winter, we could be looking at an exciting 2 weeks of tracking. Thank you Mr. EPO !

The 12 GFS trended colder & brings a good amount of mixed precip to CTP & snow to northern & western areas of PA later this week with 2 of the boundary storms.

The 12z NAM & RGEM like the idea of a little snow this weekend for parts of the LSV.

The 6z 3k NAM also is bringing 2 rounds of light snow later today & then later tomorrow to southern PA.

I think that we have a chance with the last of the lows running up the boundary Thursday pm into Friday. The 12z Euro put much of PA in the game.

That’s My favorite speech ever! I try to model everything that I do based on his words from that speech!

Please, let’s hope you bring the mojo!

@psuhoffman had a great explanation earlier today in the Mid Atlantic thread. To sum up, nothing came together that needed to in an overall pattern that was not supportive for a coastal storm. I’ve moved on to the boundary chance later next week. Hopefully we are on the right side.

Also, the EPO could potentially be our saving grace. If it’s forecast on the 12z EPS today of heading toward neutral & slightly negative comes to fruition, then that could help our cause in this boundary type of pattern that is starting later next week.

The end of next week has my attention. After our early week warm up, the cold will press & just pushed further south & east by Thursday. Right now, most models have the boundary stalling out near the PA-MD line. Then, a series of storms look to ride up the boundary between Thursday night & Saturday. A few models today gave northern & western PA a good amount of snow, & brought mixed precip to Central PA. We don’t need much of an additional push south & east of the boundary to put most of us on the wintry side. Hopefully we are on the right side for one of these. It will be interesting to see how things unfold over the next few days.

MDT is sitting at around 5 inches of snow this season so far. MDT just needs another 6 to 10 inches of snow this season to avoid a historic disaster. Here is the CTP chart for the snow for the last 40 years at MDT. 7 seasons had 15 inches or less of snow just since 1980. We have lots of time to make up ground, but we will need a really good double digit storm to have a chance of hitting 31 inches at MDT to beat climo average this year.

Well, if nothing else works out before, the 18z GFS delivered a major storm in only 14 days ! One of these has to hit ? Maybe ? Possibly? Hopefully? Dream on? We still have 8 weeks of tracking potential! It’s not over until it’s over...

Yes, I’m not throwing in the towel. We have seen many times, in all seasons, these type of storms travel further north & west than modeled. We don’t need too much of a correction to get at least a minor event from this storm.

The only model right now that gives us a chance for weekend snow is the 6z NAM.

But it didn’t match the 18z EPS...

The 18z EPS also moved a little back west & has a good cluster of low tracks that could deliver some snow this weekend. The final track might not be known on this one until sometime Friday until all of the players are on the field. It wouldn’t take much to bring this back to a decent light to moderate event for many of us just like several models have shown on & off since late last week.