Blizzard of 93

The 0z Canadian & 0z ICON both like the CTP snow chance for Monday.

Here is the 87 hour 18z Euro. It looks like the better rates that arrive at 90 hours help with the snow area enhancement.

The 18z EPS brings the good precip shield in to CTP before 12z Monday. This should help snow chances by bringing in moderate precip overnight & while cold air is still in place. The earlier that the snow can begin overnight will help our chances at improving accumulations. I also think that the track of the developing low to our south & east will help to keep the cold enough air for snow locked in place across most of CTP.

The 18z Euro only goes out to 90 hours, but it looks like everyone near the MD line on north will at least start out as snow on this run.

I’m happy this is not a case of GFS vs. the world. Usually the GFS loses 9 times out of 10 when it is all alone. It is good to see the Euro, EPS, Canadian & even the lowly ICON are all on board. Here is the 18z GFS.

The 12z Euro, EPS & Canadian all give a good amount of snow to most of CTP, with the best amounts from near I-81 & to the north & west.

Yes, the 18z ICON was a good snowstorm for most of CTP on Monday.

CTP, in their morning forecast discussion, is ramping up their thoughts on the Monday storm potential. “.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... All model guidance supports a high confidence forecast of fair and chilly weather for the upcoming weekend, as a large area of high pressure builds over eastern Canada. Model spread and forecast uncertainty ramp up early next week. 00Z Thu operational EC and latest runs of the NBM have converged toward a cold/potentially more snowy solution for late Sunday night/Monday (compared to the 12Z Wed runs of NAEFS and ECENS which supported a good chance of light mixed rain/snow across region). Phasing and amplification of initially flat southern and northern stream upper short waves helps to develop a sfc low near the DelMarva Coast with the nose of a potent southeasterly LLJ feeding a good amount of moisture into an area of mdtly strong ascent over the CWA via coupled jet streak circulations. Late March sun angle and temps well above freezing in most locations throughout the Susq Valley should limit any winter weather impacts there. However, higher terrain and lower thicknesses could lead to more significant impacts from a few to several inches of wet snow with temps ranging through the 30s.”

The 0z Euro Op & Control run are also on board for a good snowfall on Monday. The Other models at 0z we’re not as enthusiastic, but they have shown this storm on & off over the last few days. It is good to see the Euro & EPS onboard at this stage.

Good morning everyone, I hope all is well with you & your families & friends. The 0z Euro crushes CTP with snow on Monday. We are now less than 5 days away. Cold air will be in place beginning on Saturday. The storm looks to take the rare track this year to our south & east.

Hey @pasnownut , check out the 18z EPS control run for Monday. You could ride your snowmobile in northern Lancaster county if this verified.

The 18z EPS had another solid run for the CTP snow chance on Monday.

The 12z EPS is really trying to bring us some snow on Monday. This is the best 5 day look on the EPS in a long time. This would be our second best winter storm of the season if this were to verify. Only 5 days to go...

The 0z Euro, GFS & Canadian are all trying to snow on us this Monday. The Canadian was definitely the most enthusiastic.

The fantasy blizzard on the 12z GFS for March 31st & April 1st was too good not to post. I think most of us would settle for a small fraction of this snow if we were to get one more storm. If the .00000001 % chance that this storm were to verify by some miracle, it would be one of the greatest surprise winter comebacks of all time!

The GFS, GEFS & EPS are trying to get it to snow on Monday. They have showed this potential now for a couple of days. Let’s see how this trends the next few days. The MJO will finally be in our favor. We are beyond overdue to luck into some snow...

The MJO on the Euro & GEFS is still forecasted to go solidly into phase 2 & phase 3 next week, which are the coldest phases in the East in March. Also, the 12z EPS finally has the AO heading toward neutral by the last week of the month. It also has the NAO going slightly negative for the last week of the month. The telleconnections might give us a chance at some winter weather before we fully close the winter shades this season.

Then the next 3 days the highs won’t get out of the 40’s according to CTP.

In these trying times, there is one constant...the Happy Hour GFS ! It seems like this place could use some snow maps to provide a little diversion from all of the news. Here is what the 18z Happy Hour GFS showed for next Tuesday.

At this point, it is funny. We only have a few weeks to go in which snow is remotely possible in this region. I’m going to enjoy tracking to the bitter end. Maybe we will get lucky just once ?

The models & CTP backed off of the Thursday front end chance today. CTP, up until this morning, had rain or snow chances for zones in the LSV for Wednesday night & Thursday am. Up until last night, there were several models that, for a few days, showed the opportunity. Once again, it doesn’t appear to be working out. I still haven’t given up on snow chances by the end of the month. The MJO across all models is moving into phase 1,2 & then 3. Sure, it is very late in the game, but at least the MJO might finally cooperate.

Congrats! In this winter, any sighting of snow is a win. I saw 0.0 snowflakes last night. It was just too warm yesterday in the LSV at the surface. We just were not cold enough despite the colder air available up above & the low dew point. Maybe this Thursday we will have the chance at some front end snow ?

Are you getting the chance to use that snow board tonight?

@Bubbler86 & @Cashtown_Coop look to be the winners for a chance at a light to moderate coating of snow tonight according to the 12z NAMs.

The 0z Euro is on board with the Thursday snow chance.