Blizzard of 93

The 6z GFS & 6z ICON storm still keep the chance of some snow from the coastal on Saturday for us.

So, after looking over the 0z runs tonight, we need to root for the GFS & UKMET. The 0z Canadian & Euro were wide right. The UKMET has the coastal on a similar track as the GFS, but the low is stronger to our south & further deepens to the northeast. I would sign up for the GFS right now.

The 18z EPS also took a step in the right direction. There is a good cluster of lows that take an ideal storm track for the Susquehanna Valley. I’m interested in what the 0z runs have to say tonight.

The 18z GEFS also took a good step in the right direction for the weekend potential. The cluster of low tracks trended closer to the coast & the overall precip increased well inland.

The 18z GFS & 18z ICON both brought the coastal low close enough to the coast to produce some snow in CTP this weekend. There are still 5 days to go. Hopefully 0z runs tonight continue to go in the right direction.

The overnight EPS & GEFS said to not give up yet in this weekend’s snow chance.

The GFS did not phase the 2 streams. It was disjointed & brought out the storm in 2 pieces. One piece on Saturday & one on Sunday, unfortunately both go wide right off of the Coast too far south to be a factor. Let’s see what the Canadian & Euro say.

By the way, I’m just having a little fun with these posts.

We have 2 more months of winter tracking before our warm months hibernation begins.

I think anyone who says the storm is a lock or a bust 6 days out might be nuts.

Why, the weekend chance is far from decided. 6 days to go.

Also, the 18z EPS still has a good storm signal for this weekend at the end of its run at 144 Hours. Let’s see what the 0z runs have to say.

Great post ! Also, did you see the 18z GFS ? That would be a heck of a 2 weeks if that were to come close to verifying.

I’m just rooting for team North America from the 12z runs today that I posted earlier.

You mentioned the JMA & yes it is wide right at 12z for next weekend.

The 12z EPS still has a storm signal along the east coast next weekend.

The Euro is no go for next weekend’s winter storm chance, but the 12z GFS & Canadian say that we are very much in the game for a coastal storm. It will all come down to how nicely the northern stream & southern stream end up working together or against each other. We still have 6 days to try to figure it out.

Thanks man ! I just really enjoy tracking winter storms & this place has a great group ! Hopefully next weekend we are all shoveling, but lots of time to see how things unfold for the better or worse.

The 18z GFS shows a deepening low riding up the east coast next weekend. It strengthens from the 990s in the Carolinas to the 970’s by the time it reaches our latitude & then into the 960’s off of the New England coast. Verbatim, this run, the snow stays near I-81, but it would take only a small adjustment to get even our eastern locales into the good snow. I would take my chances with this run.

The 12z Euro has a deepening coastal storm that develops in the southeast & rides up the coast as it strengthens. To me, the precip shield looks underdone with a storm that deepens from 996 off of the NC coast to 987 near Norfolk then down to 971 off of the NJ coast. I would take my chances with this look for back here in the Susquehanna Valley. We are still 1 week out & the track & strength will of course vary with each model run. I am getting more confident that the models are leaning towards the idea of a coastal storm instead of a cutter or suppressed storm.

Coastal storms usually bring good precip, so we should be good. There is no torch this week, just slightly above average for late January can get it done here.

Exactly, tracking a legit threat is part of the fun of this hobby. We are in the game. If we get a good tracking coastal this time of year, we have a chance here in the interior.

Exactly, this feels like the old times, with the GFS out to sea. Much better than showing a cutter !

It just has to be cold enough, & southern Canada looks plenty cold. A decent coastal will work just fine this time of year.

That’s a nice start to the 12z models today!