Blizzard of 93

Here is the 12z GEFS our through 384 hours, which takes us to New Year’s Eve. There are a few ensemble members that would make us happy! We have had many “great” patterns in the past that haven’t brought much snow. We have also had luck in patterns that have not looked great from a couple of weeks out. It doesn’t have to be cold, but just “cold enough” to get snow in December.

Yes, it hurt that the storm last week missed by about 200 miles to our south. If we even got 3-6 inches from that, we would be on a top 10 snow year pace. As it is, we are in a good pace now, even if we get shut out in December. Most of our great years, the snow comes in a 6-8 week period. Heck, 2010 around here was basically 1 great week in February ! The last run of the Euro weeklies set up a great looking pattern by mid January. If that is the case, we would have 2 solid months to score more snow through the middle of March. The next couple of weeks do not look great, but also they do not look like a shut out pattern. We may just need to time something just right.

The 12z NAM likes the idea of a change to snow for some of us tomorrow.

Do you think most of CTP has the chance to change over to snow or just a portion of the area ?

We are in great shape with our seasonal snow total for this date. The 8.8 inches of snow at MDT back on November 15 basically covered the average snow amount through the end of December. This chart shows many places are doing very well with snow at this time.

Yes, CTP mentioned that there is a chance of up to 1- 2 inches of snow by Thursday. The High Res NAM at 12z & 18z is on board !

He is one of the best with east coast storms. He has great knowledge of the history of east coast storms & the weather patterns that produced them over the decades. Sometimes he holds on to ideas for too long, but he does not change his forecast with each run of the models.

Joe Bastardi believes there is still room for this storm to come far enough north to impact our region up through at least NYC. He provided several reasons & east coast storms have proven to be one of his strengths over the years. Also, he had a great post today on The Euro seasonal forecast, which just updated again. It portrays a fantastic pattern right through February. Even if this storm ends up shutting us out, the game has just begun. We should have several winter storm chances this year!

The 0z EPS last night looked great! There are about 20 of the 51 members that bring at least a few inches of snow to the LSV. A few members delivered great hits. The overall mean low position & clusters of low locations off the coast improved also. The mean snow amount also jumped up to 3-4 inches for the LSV. Hopefully 12z keeps things going!

Yes, I like where we sit now as well. The 0z Euro & the old GFS shifted north. Good snow on both models gets to just south of DC. Overall with this general set up, I like where we sit with about 5 days to go. The precip shields on the northwest side of the storm looks way underdone on the Euro & GFS. When considering the origin of the storm, the low position off of the NC/VA coast & the track from the south, there should be a much more pronounced area of precip further north than currently shown. This storm & it’s associated precip look to be well established starting in the south central states. I like especially how the Euro tonight has significant snow into the southern parts of IL, IN, & OH, as well as a good portion of WV. Typically, when we see precip into those areas, it doesn’t take much to get precip into southern PA. I would be more concerned if we were seeing snow only along the coast back to I-95 & hoping that it backed enough north & west to get us in the game. We usually fall short in those situations. This time I am more optimistic with seeing that good precip in the Midwest, heading into Kentucky & WV, & western VA. This should not miss us if the storm moves just a little bit more to the north. In general, I think this set up will not take too much to get at least the LSV into the game. We probably won’t ever get into the bullseye, but I think we could still get a decent event here.

As CTP mentioned in their discussion this morning, the Canadian 0z run last night was ideal for CTP snow. The New GFS upgrade at 6z brought the storm further north & put the LSV back in the game with 3-6 inches of snow. The run crushed MD & VA. We only would need a 50-100 mile shift north on this run to get into the heavy snow. Hopefully 12z treats us well !

Yes, we see this roller coaster with most east coast storms. Many of our better storms over the years have gone through these weather model ups & downs, before ending up delivering the snow. I think this is far from over, especially for those of us south of I -80. The 18z GFS & GEFS were a step in the right direction.

The EPS at 0z improved very much from the 12z run yesterday. The mean snow amount & the low locations of most of the EPS ensemble members improved as well. We are still very much in the game with 6 days still to go !

The 0z Euro joined the party & brought the goods to the LSV. With this low position & track, I think precip would be heavier & even more expansive further back into CTP. I think most of the LSV crew here would be happy with this current outcome!

Yes! It is perfect. It’s like I got to draw the map! The placement of the low off of the Delmarva coast is ideal. If only we could lock this in now!

Yes, I would rather take our chances with this kind of set up instead of dealing with a coastal storm that crushes I-95 but then puts us on the fringes.

I think most of us in CTP could live with this 18z GFS result next weekend! The track is far from settled, but I like where we sit right now. On to the 0z runs tonight !

The 12z EPS took a good step up in snow amounts for next weekend’s snow potential, especially for the LSV. There are several EPS ensemble members that provide great snow hits for CTP, with the best possible jackpot area being the southern half of PA. There are still a cluster of EPS ensemble members showing nothing for our region, & some still have minimal amounts that probably reflect cutter or inland storm tracks. The Ops will continue to shift around the next few days. The potential is certainly there for a memorable Early December snow storm for CTP.

The 6z GFS for next weekend’s potential snow storm looks a lot like the great 2009 December storm that hit a week or so before Christmas! This is the Kuchera ratio snow map from the 6z GFS. This should be a great week of tracking!

The 0z Euro, GFS, & new GFS all looked good for snow for CTP for Next Saturday!

Next week looks very interesting for the possibility of 2 snow events. The first one could bring a low end snow event around Tuesday or Wednesday. There is the chance of a moderate to high end snow event next weekend. The 0z Euro & EPS are becoming more interested in these events with each run!

The Canadian at 12z likes the idea of a light snow event for this Friday! Maybe for once it will be right?!

The GEFS has been ramping up snow amounts in the day 10 to day 15 period. We should also keep an eye on this coming Friday for the chance of a light snow or mix event. The GFS & Euro have been hinting at this the last couple of days.

CTP posted a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain for tomorrow am for most of CTP from roughly the Susquehanna River & west of there.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I’m thankful for the great group that we have here! I’m also thankful for the 8.8 inch snow surplus that we already have in the bank this year!