The Monday storm still needs to be figured out. Will it be a tiny appetizer or a small plate?
Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning on the Monday event:
“The models are not in total agreement with the northward extent and QPF amounts, even though timing is similar. Neither of the solutions is generally preferred, and the spread is also good info. For now, we have bumped up the PoPs across the S to categorical (>80%) and mentioned 1-2" of snow in the southern half of the area. There are motions by the 00Z European and 06Z GFS representatives to push the heavier precip farther to the north. The 06Z NAM takes the QPF to another level and would make a significant snowfall event if it were to come to fruition. The arguments against the heavier QPF are two-fold: The fast W-E storm speed, and the Wrly/NWrly flow throughout the event which could bring in drier air and cut down both the northward extent of the precip and the QPF amounts.”