Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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CTP is now starting to mention that on Saturday am, the precip could begin as a wintery mix, before changing over to rain by Saturday afternoon. It sounds like our northern crew needs to watch out for snow squalls as the front approaches later today.
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Yes, the northern crew has the best chance, but I wouldn’t rule out some light snow for the LSV as well by Tuesday am. Thanksgiving & Friday am look frigid ! Then, towards the end of the month into the first week of December we have a good chance for more winter storms. The pattern has great potential for snow chances!
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The Euro at 0z is still insisting that we get a few more inches of snow by Friday morning.
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Both 0z NAMs like the idea of a few more inches of snow tonight for most of us.
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MDT at the 5 pm update recorded 8.3 inches of snow today! Great start to the season!
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How are things looking for the second possible second round of snow tonight ?
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Just measured 6 inches in Marysville with steady moderate snow. i just can’t get over how powdery the snow is for this time of year! It is tough to even make a snow ball right now. Awesome storm! Great start to the season!
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5 inches currently in Marysville. Ripping snow with half mile visibility! The Euro lead the way in this one!
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Dew point is 18. We will be fine!
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Thanks man ! It will be great to just get our first winter storm in the books today at such an early date in the season!
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Yes, this is a bonus indeed! I enjoy our group & all of the personalities! CTP bumped up the Warning snow amounts to 3-5 inches in the Harrisburg area & surrounding counties.
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The latest run of the HRRR says good morning:
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The Euro- Kuchera ratio -snow map yet again at 0z looks great for CTP. The last few runs of the HRRR look good as well! This is the latest which only takes us to 6pm Thursday.
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I think the models today & tonight are playing catch up with the Euro. Here is its Kuchera ratio from 12z today.
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I agree, but the trend has been colder on the models from 12z ,& the 3k NAM in particular has made a significant jump up with snow totals for the LSV at 0z Ratios will play a large role, but the trend is there.
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The 3k High Res NAM really upped the ante for the LSV on its 0z run ! In previous runs it was only showing a couple inches in York & Lancaster, but now it shows this :
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The EPS that I posted is just for our current storm with amounts through Friday! Yes, the pattern also looks great heading into early December !
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This radar showing the wall of precip streaming north into our cold air dome with dew points in the teens has me fired up! P.S. we get to do this for 4 more months !
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The EPS ensemble mean at 12z today was flat out impressive. This would normally be a nice map for a 10 day period in mid winter! Here it is for the storm that is on our doorstep! Even if you cut the amounts in half, it would still be a great snow storm for the middle of November.
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The 0z EPS was fantastic again & the 6z NAM also says good morning to CTP! Again, if you cut these numbers in half or more, I think most of us would be very happy with this first event of the season.
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I just looked over the 12z EPS run from earlier today. It was impressive even for mid winter standards. The mean amounts ranged from near 6 inches of snow near Lancaster to around 8 inches near Harrisburg & then over 10 inches back towards State College. Even more outstanding was the fact that ALL of the 51 EPS ensemble members had significant snowfall for all of CTP. Hopefully the 0z Euro & EPS continue to deliver!
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The 0z GFS & Canadian continue to bring the goods for CTP!
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The 0z NAM looks great! The NAM 0z Kuchera ratio map actually ups the ante for snow in the LSV. Here are both the 18z & 0z NAM with both Kuchera & 10-1 maps to compare.
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Today was another great day of model runs for our first CTP wide winter weather event! CTP will probably be hoisting some Winter Storm watches by later tonight or tomorrow morning. ABC-27 out of Harrisburg, which has typically been conservative with snow forecasts over the years, has a very aggressive snow map out, with 3-7 inches of snow for many of us.
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Yes, & the overnight models that I posted All agree at this time !
