Blizzard of 93

Yes indeed! I’m running out of adjectives to describe the greatness!

In DT we trust !

This is also very bold for at least the CTP portion of this map! @sauss06 and I are in 18-24 on this map!

The 18z GEFS looks to be holding steady!

Yes, usually they are very conservative, so this is bold for them 2 days out!

Ok, 1 last post for now... Snow is mixing in now in Marysville!

Have a great day of posting guys... I will be back this evening! Please keep the good posts & maps coming for when I can check in once in a while. I can’t wait to see snowflakes today too!

That is super aggressive for CTP from 2 days out!

6z Euro says all systems go!

CTP is worried about breaking the internet! They are feeling it in their discussion update this morning! “Small waggles in the storm track on this or that model are mainly distracting at this point. The preponderance of guidance from man and machine is that we will be in the bullseye for the highest snow amounts over all the eastern U.S. for this storm. The changes overall to the Wednesday-night 24 hours are very very small. But, as one forecaster said, we may end up breaking the internet when we publish the first storm-total SF forecast for the impending storm very shortly. The contours will go up to 20". The lowest numbers are in the NW. After collaboration with WPC and the neighboring offices, we have settled on a Winter Storm Watch for most of the CWA. We have left the NW 6-7 counties out for the time being, though their totals do look like a good 4-6". Nothing to sneeze at, surely. The majority of the snow will fall between 18Z Wed and 06Z Thurs, but we used the rough 8" contour for the watch as a starting point as the snow will probably be longer than that simple 12hr period. There may be additions to the watch later today.”

The highest wind should be over Eastern areas. The Euro shows gusts from 20 to 30 mph at the height of the storm Wednesday night for eastern CTP counties. Higher gusts are possible towards Philly suburbs & Lehigh Valley on east from there:

Here are the latest EPS & GEFS ensembles which continue to target CTP with heavy snow.

Here is the 0z Euro for today’s appetizer.

Here is the 0z Euro snow map for just this event, not including anything today!

The 0z Euro did bring the Euro up over Delaware before heading east to the south NJ coast. Our true central to 1-81 & Rt 15 crew would get crushed with this track, while Lancaster would have the chance of temporary mixing with the Euro track. Once the final track is nailed down over the next day or 2, then we can see where the deform band sets up and look at thermals got any mixing issues or snow to liquid ratios.

Yes, we just need to move the 0z Euro low track about 25 miles further east to limit the chance of any mixing for @pasnownut

I would sign up for this 6z GFS as well.

CTP agrees that elevation should help tomorrow, but most places in southern PA should get 1 to 2 inches of snow. “Model soundings indicate precipitation will start as rain over the Lower Susq Valley. However, wet-bulbing of the low levels and increased deep-layer uvvel will likely lead to a quick changeover to wet snow, that could be briefly moderate in intensity from I-81 southward during the 14Z-18Z time frame. A blend of latest model guidance supports a light accumulation of wet snow across primarily the southern tier of the forecast area. With temperatures above freezing in many spots, expect accumulations to be highly elevation dependent. In general, expect 1-2 inches across the southern tier of the state and just a coating further north. However, the higher elevations of southern Pa, such as South Mountain, could see close to 3 inches. Since temps will be in the 31-35F range for the duration of the snow, most treated roads in the valleys should stay wet. Most susceptible roads to a light slushy covering will be those traversing the tops and north sides of ridges where insolation through the thick cloud cover will be minimal. The back edge of the snow should be exiting the central mountains by 15Z and the southeast corner of the forecast area by around 19Z, as surface low pushes east of the Delmarva.”

Here is the 0z Canadian super zoomed in for CTP. The 10 to 1 map is impressive, but the Kuchera map should be illegal!

Here is a closer look at the GFS. It has a more offshore track than the other models, but that would limit mixing for our southeast crew. About 3 inches of this falls tomorrow morning in the Harrisburg area. Here are the 10 to 1 and Kuchera ratio maps.

Most models seem to be on board for at least 1 to 3 inches of snow tomorrow in southern PA. The 0z GFS is on board with 1 to 3 inches of snow tomorrow.

Harrisburg is already down to 35 degrees and the radar looks juiced in Kentucky & Tennessee. The NAM might be on the right track.

That makes sense. They are doing a good job getting the word out about the major storm. It’s good that they are not down playing tomorrow if we get a couple inches of snow in the morning.

My. Holly just hoisted Winter Storm Watches for most of their region! CTP probably will be considering to post a Watch as well. However, southern PA has the Advisory posted for tomorrow morning. We have the possibility of the elusive super rare Advisory and Watch at the same time!

For tomorrow, the 0z NAMs and HRRR are looking good for southern PA snow.