Blizzard of 93

I know what you mean, but dew points through the most of PA were near 10 to 15 most of the day, but snow is underway is many places to the south & west of Harrisburg already. It will be our turn soon. The radar is looking good.

Hopefully this is indeed our “ICON” ! If we get .4 or .5 QPF in the LSV, we would get to warning criteria snow with ratios!

Thanks MAG. The precip in the Tennessee area looks juiced up & is heading north east. The precip from IL to OH is also up to their respective northern borders. I agree that if we stay in the precip shield as the low shifts toward the coast, then we could be looking at more snow than modeled. I think we have the chance to get a little more QPF than currently modeled & we could do better than 15-1 ratios with this cold air in place.

What are your thoughts on potential snow amounts at this time for both your area & also the LSV ?

Welcome aboard!

Yes, I was just out for a walk with my kids & it has that snow look out there!

That’s funny, I was just thinking the same thing. He hasn’t been posting in the other thread either. I’m sure we will hear from him soon with some snow on the way tonight, plus the possibility of more next weekend.

MDT is still ahead through today in terms of seasonal snowfall thanks to the November storm & the .1 of slop the other day. The snow total through yesterday sat at 8.9 inches & the seasonal average to date is 8.3 inches. The storm tonight is arriving just in time to keep MDT ahead for the seasonal snow total ! I would like to at least score 3.1 inches at MDT to get to the 12 inch total so far this season. Then maybe next weekend we can get a storm that puts us well ahead of the snow game if the Euro is anywhere close to being right !

The 12z NAM really increased precip totals along from Route 30 area to the south into MD & VA. The overall northern edge of the precip did not change much, with a sharp cut off to the north of Harrisburg & Lancaster. Do you guys think the overall precip shield will be able to move another 30 to 50 miles further north to get the Harrisburg area into those .5 or better precip totals ?

As we anxiously anticipate tonight’s snow, the Euro yesterday & overnight showed a major snow storm for next weekend ! The new pattern is upon us !

Good map! Here’s to a last minute 50 mile bump north to get the rest of the LSV into the better numbers!

I think they will add another small layer of counties by tomorrow.

Yes, most models keep the LSV & south central Mountains of CTP in the game with 2-4 inches of snow this weekend. We should be in a good location to max out on good ratios. Here is the 18z Kuchera ratio GFS today.

There is still good agreement right now between the most recent Euro, EPS & GEFS for a light to moderate event for most of us south of I- 80 this weekend. The LSV & has the better chance for the moderate 3-5 inch snow event.

It’s game time ! Who’s going to start our thread for this weekend event ? The 0z Euro, EPS & GEFS all agree that CTP will be getting snow this weekend! It looks like a long duration light to moderate snow event at this time.

Yes, Joe Bastardi has recently brought that up. He says that the old saying is that when there are thunderstorms in winter that often times it snows within 10 days.

Great trends today especially for the LSV for snow this weekend ! We are very much in the game according to the Euro, EPS, GFS & GEFS at 12z & 18z today!

Yes indeed! Hopefully the good trends will continue tomorrow. The GFS map below is Kuchera ratio, which is a positive snow factor with this cold air in place. The Canadian that I have does not provide Kuchera ratios.

Currently a sleet & freezing rain mix now in Marysville. The car tops have a light glaze on them now.

I think a few days before the Blizzard of 2016 Canderson said MDT wouldn’t get more than 6 inches of snow.... Long way to go for this one & the rest of winter. If this one misses, the Euro weeklies again tonight look fantastic for the rest of this month through the middle of February.

GFS FV-3 for the win next weekend!

Yes, that’s true! ( I see what you did there & that was nicely done good sir...) I also hope that we can have at least a week or 2 in January for a few bouts of wintry weather as well ! This place should be getting busy soon!

The Euro monthly forecasts for February & March were just released yesterday. They are posted now in the Mid Atlantic thread if you want to take a look. They look like what you would expect if @pasnownut or I were able to draw the perfect pattern for cold & stormy winter weather! This should be fun. Get your shovels ready!

The SOI today had another day with a good negative number of -18.60. This makes 3 straight days of double digit negative values. This is a good indicator of a pattern change in about 10 days or so. The MJO forecast today continues to correct to the the good winter phases of 8 & 1. The weather models should only continue to show good looks showing up for later this week & especially the following week. Our winter weather ship is heading in the right direction!

Yes, I saw those posts. The turn around from a couple of days ago to today has been remarkable. Those posters & pro Mets that were calling for a pattern change by mid January might end up being correct after all if the positive trends end up delivering. The MJO is heading for phase 7 & 8. The SOI has been tanking the last few days. The strat effects should only help as well over the next few weeks. We should be in for a fun winter ride!