Blizzard of 93

Good morning! The 6z Euro for tomorrow brought a general 1-3 inches of snow to most of CTP. We are getting closer to game time, so the chances are going up for a minor snow event tomorrow.

This is a little better than climo & the amounts have increased a decent a amount over what they showed a few days ago. It is trending the right way!

Yes, both 18z NAMs look interesting for Sunday snow possibilities.

Here, this is better, the full 15 days! This is the best that the EPS has looked since before the December event!

The 12z Euro gets a little snow on Sunday to the Harrisburg area and points north and west in CTP. It still deserves tracking at this point for the potential of a minor event.

This was never our storm today. In my opinion, Ice is miserable and just causes trouble on the roads & sidewalks. However I don’t mind if a little ice gives a coating after a snowstorm! Our time for snow is coming soon!

The 0z Euro run for next Friday into Saturday has the winter storm possibility that @showmethesnow mentioned above. Buckle up, the winter storm chances should be starting to line up later next week and beyond!

Yes indeed! Here is the 6z GFS for the 11th into the 12th.

Happy New Year!!!

@showmethesnow What are your thoughts on the Sunday snow potential?

The 18z GFS & NAM are delivering a few inches of Snow to most of us on Sunday. It will be very interesting to see if we can thread the needle and get a few inches of snow out of this on Sunday.

It only takes a little ice to cause major problems on the roads, especially secondary roads. Stay safe everyone!

Yes, rest up everyone... this place should be very busy over the next few weeks!

The 18z GFS & GEFS showed a lot more interest on the Sunday snow potential for most of CTP. A few degrees and a good track will make all of the difference with this storm. Hopefully it will be just cold enough to cash in on a few inches of snow on Sunday!

CTP is starting to get on board with the wintry mix for New Year’s and even mentioned the possibility of the coastal for Sunday into Monday. “With a 1035 surface high over upstate NY Thursday night, the models continue to trend colder for Friday. Cold air damming sets up with Friday morning low temps in the upper teens north to 30 degrees near the Mason-Dixon line. Held subfreezing air temps later into the day on Friday with snow now forecast. A deep low moves northeast across the Ohio valley toward the Great Lakes Friday, with a shield of overrunning / WAA precip beginning as snow and changing to a wintry mix by midday. The threat of freezing rain could lead to dangerous travel on NYE, but confidence is low at this time. In addition to winter hazards, will continue to keep an eye on flooding concerns with this storm though currently the threat has decreased. Looking at maybe 1-2 inches liquid. Colder air moves in Saturday with chance snow showers over the northwest mountains near the PA border. Both the NAEFS and ECMWF now show a coastal storm developing next Sun-Mon, but it is too early to say if this potential storm would impact central PA.”

The 0z Euro was on board for the follow up system on Sunday into Monday for a minor snow event for CTP. This would be a nice little bonus while we wait for the better pattern to get established.

The pattern from the end of the 15 ensembles posted above was carried forward on the Euro Weeklies run yesterday that went out to early February. The pattern from mid to late January could bring a really good period of winter weather to our region. Once the west based block gets established, it looks to remain in place until early February according to the Euro Weeklies.

The end of the 12z EPS, GEFS & Canadian ensembles today all had a similar look with a great blocking pattern with a more west based -NAO and the trough in the east. Good winter storm tracking days are ahead if this look verifies!

This is a beautiful west based -NAO blocking pattern on the 0z EPS & GEFS. The blocking has been consistently shifting to the west over the last several ensemble runs, but it will take a little time to get there. The week of the 10th of January onward could be loaded with winter storm chances for us if this pattern arrives as advertised.

We also need to keep an eye on the chance of a follow up storm chance next Sunday or Monday. Some models have shown the chance over the last few days, but most have not been developing a storm or have been keeping any storm chance well offshore. The 0z Canadian shows this potential storm chance and the Para-GFS apparently also shows it according to some posters in other regional threads on here. So while we wait for the good -NAO blocking pattern to get into a better position over the next couple of weeks, we might have a wintry event or two to track in the meantime.

The 0z GFS & Canadian agree with the concern of a messy mix event possibility this coming weekend. The Euro also has it, but to a lesser extent. It will depend on the strength of the High to determine how much mixing CTP would get and the duration before changing to rain.

It’s just a matter of time until the blocking pays off for our Winter Storm chances, One the -NAO blocking shifts a little to the west, we should be in business. We just need to stay patient.

Nice! Did they say what the issue was with it?

Had anyone heard if something is wrong with the thermometer at MDT? At 9am they are showing a current temperature of 38 degrees. The next warmest location in PA is Philadelphia at 26 degrees currently. Yesterday, it also seemed like their temperature was way off from what surrounding locations were showing.

Good morning everyone! MDT recorded .3 inches of snow yesterday making it an official White Christmas for Harrisburg!