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Blizzard of 93

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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93

  1. Blizzard of 93
    Here is the 2 event snow total Kuchera ratio 0z GFS snow map for both storms combined this week.
  2. Blizzard of 93
    The 0z GFS run gets decent snow into the southern third of PA for the Thursday event. Just as @Itstrainingtime has mentioned, this is right where we want it to be at this range. Plenty of time for a slight north trend to get us in the jackpot zone closer to game time.
  3. Blizzard of 93
    That was a great 18z GFS run. The end of the run looks very cold as you mentioned. Multiple winter storm chances and even 1 more threat moving into the central states at the end of the run that would hit us the following day or 2.
  4. Blizzard of 93
    Here are the 0z NAM 3k & 12k snow maps. The 3k still has precip going at the end of the 60 hour run which is a mix for most of us at that point.
  5. Blizzard of 93
    The 0z NAMs get a decent front end thump of snow into CTP Monday night and then transition to a wintry mix by Tuesday morning. Here is the front end snow thump as it moves into the LSV Monday evening on the 3k & 12k 0z NAM.
  6. Blizzard of 93
    I like the look of the long range 3k NAM at the end of its 60 hour run. Lots more precip to go after the run ends.
  7. Blizzard of 93
    Yes, there is a long way to go, especially with the late week system. I agree with your point that I would rather be looking for a north trend with 5 days to go in a set up like this. As for the early week storm, we will need to watch the short range model trends over the next couple of days. I think many of us will see 3 to 6 inches of snow by the time this first event ends by Tuesday night. I also hope for a little mix at the end to put a nice glaze or crust on top of the snow!
  8. Blizzard of 93
    The ensembles still favor all of CTP to get 3 to 4 inches of snow with the early week event. From here out out, the short range models should be best to narrow the goalposts further with amounts, precip mixing, etc.
  9. Blizzard of 93
    A little sleet & freezing rain on top helps the snow to stay around longer!
  10. Blizzard of 93
    The 2 potential events this week on the 6z GFS have combined snow total maps that are too good to not post! Here are the 10-1 ratio & Kuchera ratio snow maps.
  11. Blizzard of 93
    The 6z GFS also has the Thursday coastal storm! It shows the look the CTP snow lovers dream of seeing on a map. Strong High pressure to the north and a strengthening low over the DelMarVa.
  12. Blizzard of 93
    I was getting some sleep in anticipation of the busy weather week ahead. This map was incredible to see when I just woke up! Wow!
  13. Blizzard of 93
    I think that the areas that mix or change over will still be able to squeeze out an event total of 3 inches of snow on the front & back ends of the event.
  14. Blizzard of 93
    It will be interesting to see how the potential later in the week second event tracks. If the storm develops closer to the coast, then we could be looking at back to back snow events.
  15. Blizzard of 93
    I don’t think anyone in CTP is getting 10 inches of snow out of this. I think it will end up as a general 3 to 6 inch CTP wide event.
  16. Blizzard of 93
    The 10 inch line is also less than 30 miles to your north... this could go either way depending on how the final details lock in.
  17. Blizzard of 93
    I would be thrilled with half of these amounts for the greater Harrisburg area!
  18. Blizzard of 93
    The 0z NAM would still tack on a little more snow because the event is still going on at the end of the run.
  19. Blizzard of 93
    The southern edge is south of the MD line...even southern York and Lancaster get a few inches this run according to the long range NAM.
  20. Blizzard of 93
    The 18z Euro & EPS held serve for CTP snow.
  21. Blizzard of 93
    Here is the snow map for the end of the 18z NAM run that shows the beginning of the event.
  22. Blizzard of 93
    I like the look of the front end snow thump on the 18z NAM at the end of the run. Yes, long range NAM, but it should help over the next 24 to 48 hours to see the thermals for the snow & mix zones. I think many in our region have a good chance for 3 to 6 inches of snow, more for those that stay mostly snow & less for the areas that mix.
  23. Blizzard of 93
    CTP already is ramping up their discussion on this early week event and said this in their Hazardous Weather Outlook this morning. “Steady snow will likely spread northeast across the region Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday as low pressure moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley.”
  24. Blizzard of 93
    Things are still looking good on the latest EPS & GEFS for the early week storm chance for most of CTP. The short range models will soon be in range to help us determine the final story on this event.
  25. Blizzard of 93
    Yes, that is a good thing! I am just fired up about the opportunities next week. We are very much in the game, but anything is still possible for the better or worse. I think we have a good chance, but we will know more in the next few days. This place should be very busy this week!
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