Blizzard of 93

The storm is far from over at the end of the 12z Euro run at 240 hours. The storm is transferring at a great spot for us near the coast of North Carolina. I wish that we could see the next couple of frames!

It’s been 1 month since our top 5 December winter storm that still has everyone in our region above normal in the snow department through today’s date. Most of our great winters have slow periods. Some people in other threads have mentioned the great winter of 09-10. That season we also had a great December storm that delivered a similar amount of snow in the Harrisburg area that this year’s storm brought. Then, there was NOTHING in the snow department all of January. Thankfully we were then treated to one of the greatest weeks of winter weather of all time with our 2 February blizzards. After that, we just missed the great storm later in February that retrograded in off of the coast that crushed NJ into upstate New York and New England. We got a few inches of snow from that storm, but it could have been much more with a slightly more west track. March of that year brought Nothing in terms of snow to CTP. My point is that even our great memorable Winters can have long periods of down time. This year, if we get another good winter storm late this month, another good one in February or March, plus a few small events mixed in, we would remember this winter as a great one and forget about the 5 weeks of down time. I think that we have much to look forward to in the next few weeks!

The EPS & CMC ensembles are still loudly signaling for snow opportunities during the last week of January. The 6 inch snow line again gets to the LSV on both!

Yes, delayed but hopefully not denied! Very strong signal indeed for the last week of the month on the EPS. The snow map at 12z pushed the 6 inch snow line down near I-95. This is the best snow map by far since before the December major event.

The 12z EPS today had the best snow signal run since before the December major event. The 6 inch snow line on the 12z EPS made it to the Harrisburg area today for the first time in a long time. The 2 main snow chance windows are late next week & then the early to mid part of the following week.

12z Euro & 18z GFS both say that we get a few inches of snow by late next week!

The 0z EPS continues to show a strong snow signal with a couple of specific threat windows showing beginning late next week through the end of week 2.

The 6z GFS for the end of next week possible event has snow for us and keeps the low to our south.

The 18z GEFS is also showing a good snow signal. Most of this falls in week 2. All of the blocking should pay off hopefully beginning with the storm threat at the end of next week. We should have our chances!

The 12z Canadian also had some snow for us by next Friday!

Yes indeed! I would sign up for the 12z Euro for this storm next Thursday.

I like that 1/27 look on the GFS, but we should have a couple of snow chances before that one.

Yes, I cleared out my attachments on here a couple of days ago in anticipation of things get very busy with this upcoming pattern! The GEFS, CMC ensemble, & EPS are all sending a great signal in the snow department. Most of the snow falls in week 2.

The -NAO continues to look impressive for most of the rest of the month. The EPO is heading negative which will help with delivering the cold air. The -PNA should bring more storm chances across that should be forced to our south because of the blocking. I just want some moisture laden storms in prime climo from mid January onward. I’ll take our chances with more cold air in the pattern thanks to the -EPO and the -NAO blocking keeping it in place. This upcoming pattern could finally produce some solid winter storm chances the last 2 weeks of the month.

The 0z Canadian has a winter storm for us next Wednesday. One of these threats with this good pattern needs to become something that we can track into the short term...

The 12z GFS has a good storm signal for early next week. There is a lot more potential with a slightly closer to the coast track if the storm deepens like thIs on the way up the coast.

Here are the latest EPS & GEFS from today. Most of this snow falls in week 2. They are trending in the right direction as an indicator of increasing winter storm potential.

Harrisburg is still 4 inches of snow above average through today’s date for the season. We already scored a major event in December. Many of us got at least a solid snow shower to coating of snow on Christmas Day! Last Sunday many had a coating of snow/sleet while some places further north & west in CTP had a few inches of snow. My point is that this Winter has been pretty good to this point. We should get more cold into the pattern next weekend. The -NAO should persist through the end of the month. The pattern looks to get more active next week. We should have a few more winter storm chances this month.

I’m good with tracking 3 to 6 inch snow chance events. The majority of our storms fall into this range. We had a KU type of event in December, which is rare. Hopefully we will get to track another major storm this season. If not, hopefully we get some light to moderate events to track soon in this pattern.

Maybe this will be the next storm chance to track? Only 9 days away! The pattern from next week to early February should produce chances to score.

Hopefully the good trends from 0z continue today!

Here is the 0z Euro.

The 0z Euro & Canadian did bring a good snowstorm to CTP next Tuesday as @MAG5035 mentioned. Here is the 0z Canadian.

@MAG5035 What do you think of our chances for the coastal potential early next week?

Ok, how about the Kuchera ratio map just for fun...!