Blizzard of 93

We should all just hug the 18z GFS-FV3!

It still has a good front end thump of snow, even with a less than ideal track & timing.

It should not be, especially with the potential next week. The rest of the month could bring a few more snow chances with the way the pattern should progress!

The 0z Euro & 6z GFS continue to bring snow to CTP next week. The Euro tracks a stronger primary to our west & develops a secondary low later than it has in previous runs. The GFS has a better high to our north, but seems to delay the main precip to reach us 1 day later than the Euro. Both present a front end thump of snow, but especially the Euro this run, brings more mixing after the snow to CTP. Lots of time to go. It will all depend on the strength & position of the High, & the timing of the development of the secondary low.

Yes, the Euro has had the next Tuesday & Wednesday storm for a few runs in a row. The 18z GFS & GFS -FV3 today showed a similar solution as the Euro, with a low tracking toward the Ohio Valley then a secondary low developing off of the coast of Virginia. The High pressure to the north & the CAD in place produce a good snow storm on these runs for most of CTP. Some mixing is possible in the LSV, depending on the final track & the High strength & position. The chances are increasing for snow by this time next week !

The 0z Euro displayed a fantastic snow Storm for next Tuesday. It tracks a low towards Ohio, but then develops a secondary low off of the Virginia coast that takes over. There is very good CAD with the initial front end thump of snow, then possible mixing in the LSV, then back to a several hour period of snow as the coastal takes over.

Yes, things should get very interesting beginning early next week. The 12z Euro & GFS FV3 both have snow events for us by next Tuesday.

The 0z Euro put most of CTP on the snow side of the boundary for early next week.

The 12z Euro & GFS-FV3 both like the idea of snow for CTP by next Tuesday. There are track & timing differences, but even with a west track, the Euro put down a good swath of front end snow. The MJO forecasts for today continued to move towards & into phase 8 by the end of next week, which is excellent for us. The last 3 weeks of February should provide us with plenty of winter weather.

Very interesting... has any other model shown this recently? I think many folks, including me, had written off any winter weather here until next weekend at the earliest.

MDT is still Above normal snow for the season at 19.4 inches as of today. The average through today is 15.3 inches. MDT is only about 12 inches below climo seasonal average as of today. I don’t care whether my snow comes in October or April. I enjoy every flake. I think some folks in here would feel better about this winter if the November storm happened a few weeks later in December instead of November. I also think many people on here forget the the LSV only averages around 31 inches of snow per season. We still have 2 months to score snow ! I think another Above climo season is underway! These just some random winter thoughts that are directed at no one in particular, but I just wanted to put it out there for everyone.

The 0z Euro has CTP on the good side of the boundary for snow early next week.

Yes, it’s going to be very busy in here!

Yes, it all depends on where the boundary sets up over the next couple of weeks. The MJO is heading towards phase 8 according to the Euro. Also, we should get more help with the -NAO & good positioning of the 50-50 low could also improve our snow chances here in CTP. There was a poster in the old Accuweather forums from the Lebanon, PA area whose tag line said , “ when I-95 is mixing, I’m cashing in”. I think this is often true. Many folks here in PA rely on the postings of the MA & NYC threads. Many times their weather doesn’t apply exactly to our resulting conditions here in PA. There are several good posters in those forums that I enjoy reading every day for their thoughts on the overall regional pattern.

The 18z GFS way out in the long range just provided PD III ! I realize this will change a million times between now & then, but this sure is fun to consider as a possibility!

Yes, my yard here in Marysville is still fully snow covered as of sunset today.

Here are snow maps from the 12z runs of the GEFS & EPS through the next 15 days. Almost all of the snow falls from day 8 through day 15. The pattern looks active with improved help from the Atlantic side. Once we get through Friday when the cold front clears, the snow game is back on !

Go check the MA thread again & read the good posters. It is far from dire.

No idea where you saw that bad info... Winter is very far from over. I think the best part is yet to arrive!

It looks like MDT only measured 1.1 inches of snow with .10 of precip today. I thought that with the ratios forecast for today that .10 of precip would have produced closer to 2 inches of snow with a 20-1 ratio?

Congrats! You brought this one home for the southern half of PA crew !

Please don’t hold back on the technical stuff & model/pattern analysis. We like to have fun here, but it is good to mix in more good info from time to time. We can also learn from each other along the way !

Yes, that’s about what I got in Marysville. It was a Nice light event. It Snowed for most of the day with temps in the teens. 2 snow events within 3 days this week was very enjoyable!

The 0z Euro trended in the right direction for our Friday snow !

Yes! I will take 1 or 2 inches of snow tomorrow to start February off right ! After we get through a 4 or 5 day warm up, we should be back in the snow business shortly thereafter!