Blizzard of 93

Yes, I forgot that I was lurking here. Then I decided to post about the GEFS for Central PA. I quickly deleted the post here & went to the right forum! Sorry everyone, great group here!

The 12z GEFS still likes the Wednesday storm. Every ensemble member still brings at least a few inches of snow to CTP by the end of Wednesday.

It was never a toaster oven. The MJO & SOI should produce a cold & stormy first half of March.

The 12z NAM for tomorrow’s light event brings mixed precip to most of us. The snow map shows 1-2 inches for most of us, but it doesn’t look like this will be an all snow event.

@psuhoffman & @C.A.P.E. The SOI daily contribution number today was -24 . That makes it 6 days in a row this week that the SOI has been a double digit negative number, including 3 days that were over -20 or better, & 2 other days that were -19. Most models are showing the MJO taking a slow track through phase 8 & the Euro is taking it into phase 1 later this month. Most of the time there is about a 1 week or so lag until the effects of the SOI & MJO impact our pattern in North America. Do you guys think that the EPS & GEFS will respond to these impacts over the next few days & show a better pattern for late February & early March ?

So, winter is still going on ...I’m shocked.... Good agreement today with the GFS & Euro, as well as their ensembles for our Wednesday storm. The CAD improved & so did the path of the low. As @bubbler86 said, if the low transfers to the coast, we could really be in business. As it stands now, I would sign up for the 12z Euro ! We also still have the chance at an inch or two of snow Sunday night into Monday. Lots of tracking ahead of us this weekend!

The GFS, GEFS, Euro & EPS today all said that by Wednesday we have a few inches of snow. The last few times that the MA forum has cancelled winter, we seemed to get snow the following week. Just a few days ago there was great optimism. I think the models will respond soon to the MJO & SOI. Plus, we still have 6 weeks to go to score more snow. There is still lots of time !

Great post MAG. Yes, Most of CTP has done ok with snow so far this season. MDT is currently running about 4 inches above normal snow through today’s date. We have a good chance to reach climo snow here. We only need 7 or 8 inches of snow to get there by the end of this season at MDT. The Philly to Boston corridor has really struggled with snow this season to date. I think the models will be adjusting over the next few days. The MJO just reached phase 8 today, & should be heading to phase 1 by next week according to the Euro. Also, the SOI has been very negative over the last 4 days with readings of -19,-23,-25 & -19. Usually there is about a 1 week or so of lag time until the impacts of the MJO & SOI take effect. Usually this combination leads to a very good winter pattern for the east. Hopefully we can have a good 2 to 4 week run of winter weather later this month through March.

The 0z Canadian was further north than the GFS. It brings a couple of inches of snow to the LSV on Saturday.

Ok, back to the weather for a minute... @daxx the 18z GEFS agreed with you. It shows the LSV getting a couple of inches from the Saturday storm & then a couple of more inches from the Sunday night into Monday storm. The GFS & Euro Ops today only needed a 50 to 75 mile bump north to get the LSV into the good snow this weekend. Here is the 18z GEFS through the end of the first possible storm on Saturday.

Yes, we need to first figure out the possible 2 events this weekend. There is the chance of back to back events this weekend for many of us. The MJO is heading to the phase 8 & 1. The SOI is crashing. Today it hit -23 Yesterday it was -19. This coming week should be fun, & the rest of the month into early March could be a great period of winter weather !

The 12z Euro agreed with the GFS for the chance at 3 winter storms by next Wednesday!

Yes, 3 snow chances by next Wednesday according to the 12z GFS. Sign me up !

Yes & the heavy precip on the radar has been sleet here.

I agree with @Flatheadsickness There was no dry slot in the Harrisburg area! Look at the hourly Obs for MDT.

Yes, I think we will at least get to average seasonal snow total. MDT is currently about 4 inches above normal snow through today’s date.

Yes, this weekend & next week look very interesting indeed ! The pattern the next couple of weeks is loaded with potential for multiple winter storm chances ! We are going to be extremely busy here!

I have freezing rain & sleet with some random snow flakes still mixed in here in Marysville. I had just under 2 inches of snow from round one yesterday & about 3 inches from round two. Maybe I can pad the total slightly if I get some good sleet rates. Overall, CTP’s forecast seemed to verify in the Harrisburg area. I think our southern tier crew might have even over performed. I am happy that I got to see snow on 3 straight calendar days this week !

Here are the latest runs of the HRRR & RAP short range models. Both show a solid 3-4 more inches of snow for most of CTP.

The heavier precip is filling in & moving toward the LSV.

I am really not sure what you guys are looking at now? The Radar looks good & is filling in nicely. Every reporting station from I-80 to the south is reporting some type of precip. It is supposed to snow in the Harrisburg area until at least 6 am. I think we get a few more inches of snow before the mixing begins.

The precip is filling in to our south & approaching rapidly from the west. I think we will not have any trouble with a dry slot here in PA.

These short range models are usually the best during an event. Here is the latest HRRR & RAP

Here is the updated Winter Storm warning for the Harrisburg area & the remainder of CTP outside of the far southern tier of counties. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 843 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 PAZ017>019-026>028-036-056-057-059-063-121600- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190212T2300Z/ Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland- Including the cities of DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, and Carlisle 843 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow then mixed precipitation. Additional snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Clearfield, Northern Centre, Southern Centre, Mifflin and Juniata Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. The snow will transition to sleet during the predawn hours of Tuesday, before changing to mainly freezing rain during the late morning and afternoon hours Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will become dangerous due to the combination of precipitation types. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

You must live next to a super heated wind tunnel ! The snow is sticking to everything here & coming down at a good rate. MDT at 9pm had snow with .75 mile visibility.