Blizzard of 93

The 12z EPS today was a great run with multiple winter storm chances over the next 2 weeks. The first chance is the early next week storm. The EPS still has the mean low track to the Ohio Valley with a transfer to the Mid Atlantic coast. Here is the 3 day EPS snow map, which is very nice for that window.

The 6z Para GFS also looks good for the possible event early next week. It does not cut the low into the lakes.

The 0z EPS still looks good for the early next week winter storm chance. The mean still has the general idea of a low track to the Ohio Valley and then transferring off of the coast. There is still over a week to go until the event, so there is lots of time for changes for the Op runs to lock in over the next few days.

The 18z GEFS looks similar to the EPS for the early next week threat.

The 12z EPS offered a wide range of solutions from big hits to events similar to the Op run, to whiffs to everything in between. Here is the 12z EPS for the 3 day window around this storm chance early next week. I like where we are sitting at this time.

At this point, I would be good with the Euro or Canadian runs today with a weaker system that does not cut. I would take a nice all snow 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 inch all snow event.

One final map for now, which is the 0z EPS overall 15 day snow map. This is a great snow signal for our region. It is great to see the 6 inch snow line extend to the South of I-95 for the first time in a long time! This is all mostly for next week, with the early week threat and then another chance later in the week.

Here is the 0z EPS snow map for just the 3 days near the time period of this early next week winter storm chance. This is a nice snow signal for over one week out. I like that on this map, CTP is right in the middle with some room to spare on all sides for inevitable adjustments.

The 0z EPS still looked really good for the winter storm chance for early next week. The general low track cluster goes to the Ohio Valley and then transfers to the mid Atlantic coast. Here are snapshots of one of the 6 hr precip panels early in the storm and then another map with the low clusters later in the storm on Monday night.

The 18z GFS again brought CTP snow for the possible storm early next week. Hopefully we start to lock in on this threat potential over the next couple of days.

The GFS & Euro both have good agreement today with the position of the low for 9 days out. The GFS has the transferred low off of the Virginia coast while deepening as it heads north. Here is the 12z GFS for comparison.

The storm is far from over at the end of the 12z Euro run at 240 hours. The storm is transferring at a great spot for us near the coast of North Carolina. I wish that we could see the next couple of frames!

It’s been 1 month since our top 5 December winter storm that still has everyone in our region above normal in the snow department through today’s date. Most of our great winters have slow periods. Some people in other threads have mentioned the great winter of 09-10. That season we also had a great December storm that delivered a similar amount of snow in the Harrisburg area that this year’s storm brought. Then, there was NOTHING in the snow department all of January. Thankfully we were then treated to one of the greatest weeks of winter weather of all time with our 2 February blizzards. After that, we just missed the great storm later in February that retrograded in off of the coast that crushed NJ into upstate New York and New England. We got a few inches of snow from that storm, but it could have been much more with a slightly more west track. March of that year brought Nothing in terms of snow to CTP. My point is that even our great memorable Winters can have long periods of down time. This year, if we get another good winter storm late this month, another good one in February or March, plus a few small events mixed in, we would remember this winter as a great one and forget about the 5 weeks of down time. I think that we have much to look forward to in the next few weeks!

The EPS & CMC ensembles are still loudly signaling for snow opportunities during the last week of January. The 6 inch snow line again gets to the LSV on both!

Yes, delayed but hopefully not denied! Very strong signal indeed for the last week of the month on the EPS. The snow map at 12z pushed the 6 inch snow line down near I-95. This is the best snow map by far since before the December major event.

The 12z EPS today had the best snow signal run since before the December major event. The 6 inch snow line on the 12z EPS made it to the Harrisburg area today for the first time in a long time. The 2 main snow chance windows are late next week & then the early to mid part of the following week.

12z Euro & 18z GFS both say that we get a few inches of snow by late next week!

The 0z EPS continues to show a strong snow signal with a couple of specific threat windows showing beginning late next week through the end of week 2.

The 6z GFS for the end of next week possible event has snow for us and keeps the low to our south.

The 18z GEFS is also showing a good snow signal. Most of this falls in week 2. All of the blocking should pay off hopefully beginning with the storm threat at the end of next week. We should have our chances!

The 12z Canadian also had some snow for us by next Friday!

Yes indeed! I would sign up for the 12z Euro for this storm next Thursday.

I like that 1/27 look on the GFS, but we should have a couple of snow chances before that one.

Yes, I cleared out my attachments on here a couple of days ago in anticipation of things get very busy with this upcoming pattern! The GEFS, CMC ensemble, & EPS are all sending a great signal in the snow department. Most of the snow falls in week 2.

The -NAO continues to look impressive for most of the rest of the month. The EPO is heading negative which will help with delivering the cold air. The -PNA should bring more storm chances across that should be forced to our south because of the blocking. I just want some moisture laden storms in prime climo from mid January onward. I’ll take our chances with more cold air in the pattern thanks to the -EPO and the -NAO blocking keeping it in place. This upcoming pattern could finally produce some solid winter storm chances the last 2 weeks of the month.