Blizzard of 93

Yes, Same here in Marysville. We are wasting no time with virga !

Yes, the 12z GFS & Canadian both ticked south & east with better snow totals. For Harrisburg, the GFS & Canadian give about 2 more inches of snow over the amounts that their previous runs showed.

That’s a great point! That’s what the November storm did in the Harrisburg area with 1-2 inch per hour rates for just about 6 hours. We got 8.8 inches from that thump.

CTP is doubling down on the 5-6 snow range from the turnpike on north with this map issued at 10:35.

Harrisburg is still in the 3-6 on that map

My handbook says to just hug this map !

Something that I thought of for the sake of lurkers to this forum or folks dropping by from other regions, is that we need to clarify what area that we are referencing when commenting. Not everyone on here lives in Lancaster, York or Franklin County. Some of the comments need to reflect what area you are referencing or post a map to clarify. I lurked for years on here before I joined & it was tough to get a grasp of things until you learned where everyone is from. The better posters made it easy, but you had to sift through several posts to get quality info sometimes. Many places from the turnpike on north will do well today & our I- 80 crew should get crushed. Just some thoughts on storm day to try to make this place better!

Nice !!! I almost spit out my coffee!

I’m riding the CTP train on this one for my realism & optimism!

Not a flake has fallen yet. no one has won or lost yet!

Thanks ! Yes, weekend storms are the best. We can track all day & watch the weather unfold & not need to travel!

Hey @pasnownut ! I need some help in here talking people off of the ledge this morning!

The blizzard of 93 ( & no of course I’m not thinking we are getting a blizzard...just recalling a storm....) & many, many, many ... storms have started with surface temps near or slightly above freezing. please see @MAG5035 post from overnight with the upper air map

Obviously, However, my point is look what happened in December, it was was Congrats NC ! Sometimes Artic air invades & you are left hoping for an over performing clipper!

Since we are name dropping in here, the great met Joe D’Aleo had an excellent post this morning. He said that Artic high pressure tobthe north & west of storms should never be underestimated. He discussed how he thinks cold air will hang in longer, & mentioned old school methods of forecasting before models existed.

At this point, we just need to see how things play out. A ton of moisture is heading our way & we should be cold enough for snow to start. Heavy precip can overcome marginal surface temps with no problem. I expect snow to stick immediately to untreated surfaces. No one in November thought we were getting 8 inches of snow because of time of year, ground temps, sun angle & other ideas that ended up being wrong.

Many times when we have a very cold arctic high in place, the storm gets squashed way to the south. Sometimes, you need to roll the dice & hope you win.

Every one needs to cheer up in here! When was the last time that all of CTP was under a Winter Storm Warning? All of us will see some snow today. Try to enjoy whatever we get !

There is plenty of frigid air not too far away in southern Canada & northern New England that can feed in to the storm.

Maybe CTP is just buying the NAM ?

This wall of heavy precip is heading our way. The initial precip is way out ahead of the low. This can dump heavy snow on us before any mixing impacts from the final low track need to be handled. Once the actual low approaches PA, the damage in terms of snow would already be done. Hopefully then after that, we just have a few hours of mixed precip at the end to lock in our snowpack.

Here is the latest from CTP as of 1034pm They are Not backing down!

Thanks for commenting in this thread & please come back soon ! CTP & Mt. Holly both think that the Harrisburg to Allentown corridor get 5-10 inches of snow.

CTP & JB have both referenced the November storm for the the possibility of heavy snow for the front end thump tomorrow. For that November storm in the Harrisburg area, the heavy snow started around 10 am & then lasted until around 4 pm when it then changed over to sleet. The 8.8 inches of snow that MDT recorded basically took place 6 hours. Hopefully tomorrow we do that again!

CTP at 9:56 pm is NOT backing down for the Harrisburg area with the Winter Storm Warning which they just updated. National Weather Service State College PA 956 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 PAZ033>036-056>059-063-191200- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/ Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland- Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle 956 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with the lowest amounts south of the turnpike. Ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Snow will develop Saturday afternoon and could become heavy at times by evening. The snow will change to mixed precipitation Saturday night, then taper off by dawn Sunday.