Blizzard of 93

I said “potential” ....not “locked in” ....Lol!

@showmethesnow If you get the chance, please let us know your thoughts on this potential blockbuster storm.

The 18z GEFS is starting to come around to the Euro idea for the storm on Monday. There are an increasing amount of ensemble member lows off of the coast and it develops a mean low position just off of the coast of the DelMarVa by early Monday am. The snow map is reflecting the potential of the CTP jackpot!

The 12z EPS was beautiful! The mean low position and track along with the individual ensemble member low clusters were ideal for CTP snow.

Great posts & awesome Euro, EPS & Canadian runs as well. Did you see the CIPS analogs posted on the Mid Atlantic forum as well? The top 10 storm analogs are a greatest hits list for CTP snow. Let’s do this!

The 6z GFS even though it has a different evolution that is further north than the Euro, still delivers a very good result for most of CTP.

The 0z EPS was a great run with just about every ensemble member low north of the 0z Euro Op. Most of the EPS members are tucked near the coast, some are inland and some just off of the DelMarVa. The EPS mean precip & snow map also increased for much of CTP.

ICON gets the 0z runs off to a Great start for CTP! It tucks the low in at the mouth of the Delaware Bay.

I was just mentioning my point in general terms about his posts, not just for this event.

I agree, it is way to early to worry about boundaries when the final track is far from set. Remember, for the December storm, that Binghamton, NY a couple of days before the event looked to be getting fringed with under 10 inches of snow and they ended up with 3 feet! Also, the day before the December storm, CTP had the 18 inch bullseye near Harrisburg & Carlisle with no mention of sleet. Harrisburg ended up with 11 inches. The CTP snow bullseye in reality ended up from I-80 on north where many places ended up with 2 feet! I like where we are sitting at this range.

Great to see you posting! I hope all is well and hopefully we will see you offer your thoughts & comments for the rest of the Winter and beyond.

Lol...This is the same guy that cancelled the blizzard of 2016 a few days before the event because of one off run of the Euro that took us from 2 feet down to 1 foot. He knows his stuff, but he is all over the place and likes to panic early & often!

The 18z EPS has a great look for the early week snow chance. The end of the 144 hour run has a great cluster of lows off of the coast of NC up towards the DelMarVa. The High is anchored over Quebec. There look to be a range from inland runners, coastal huggers to some off of the coast. This look should only improve as the few eastern outliers are reduced as the event nears. I really like where we are sitting for this event. Only 5 days to go until the storm gets underway in our region. Maybe this is the one?!?!

Here is that colorful snow map from the 18z GFS! CTP bullseye! The Euro is right where we want it at this range. Here we go again... maybe this is the one?!?

Maybe this will be the one that delivers this Sunday or Monday? The 0z Euro delivered a crushing snowstorm by early next week. All of the models show a storm. The details of course need sorted out over the next few days. Hopefully this time everything trends in the right direction for snow.

Lol....Did you not read my post??? I said snow to mix... No one thought this was a pure snow event. CTP is on their 5th idea of the day for this minor event!

This event is just getting started. There is more precip developing now in western and central PA. There is also a lot of precip to our south and west that will move through as snow to start and then become a mix by morning. Most models today didn’t even have precip starting in Harrisburg until near midnight.

The 12z Euro and the other 12z models today had a great look for a CTP snowstorm for Sunday into Monday! The ensembles support the chance as well and it’s only 5 or 6 days away. Maybe this will be indeed worth the wait.

Light snow for the last hour or so in Marysville with a light coating so far.

It would be nice if they made a forecast today and stuck with it before changing it 5 times before the event even gets underway.

Thanks, it looks like the radar is filling in to the west & southwest of PA which should get better precip going later on for south central PA.

Do you have a good local radar that you could post when the precip gets close to the LSV?

The last few hourly runs of the HRRR have been steadily boosting our little front end snow tonight in the LSV from near the river on west.

The 18z GFS gave a slight bump to the snow totals tonight over Harrisburg and York on westward in the LSV.

The 0z Euro still had the Miller B snow threat for next Monday for CTP. Only 1 MORE week away....!