Blizzard of 93

No need to apologize... The 12z Euro & EPS said that we should buckle up for a very busy winter storm week next week!

There was a dusting of snow overnight here in Marysville. It looks like another snow shower might make it here within the hour.

The 15 day 0z EPS snow map still looks good for chances beyond the early week threat.

It’s good to see the EPS continue to be on board for the storm chance next week. There are are several ensemble members that target CTP. I would sign up for the 0z Euro Control run.

I would sign up for the 0z Canadian for early next week.

I am gaining confidence for next week because all of the models today showed us getting some snow in the same time period. It is not the case of one random run by one model. Like @pasnownut said, a few more runs and I will be excited. Hopefully we get to the point where the main question is not if we get snow, but how much!

Next week is our best chance since the December blockbuster snow event. We have multiple opportunities. I feel really good that we will score at least once. If all goes well, then we might get hit twice with snow!

The maps above are the 12z EPS through next Friday morning and then the combined amount through the end of the 15 day run. I like where we are sitting now in CTP!

The 12z models today were fantastic today with multiple snow chances next week. There could be the opportunity for the rare “snow on snow” next week. There was good consensus at 12z today among the Euro, GFS & Canadian. Here are their snow maps through next Friday morning.

The 0z EPS agrees with the Op Euro with multiple winter storm threats over the next 10 days to 2 weeks for CTP.

The 0z Euro provided 2 Winter Storm chances for next week. For the early week storm, It wouldn’t take much of a shift to the south with the storm track to give a mostly snow event to our southern tier. As it stands with this run, it would be mostly snow for the northern half of CTP. The southern half of CTP would have a heavy mix changing to snow as the low transfers off of the coast. The next threat is incoming next Thursday night into Friday at the end of the ten day run. It would have been nice to see the next 6 to 12 hours!

The overall 15 day EPS snow map is absolutely the best that we have seen this season since before the December event! Could we get the elusive chance of snow on snow?

The 12z EPS then has another snow window of opportunity later next week into the end the month.

The 12z EPS today was a great run with multiple winter storm chances over the next 2 weeks. The first chance is the early next week storm. The EPS still has the mean low track to the Ohio Valley with a transfer to the Mid Atlantic coast. Here is the 3 day EPS snow map, which is very nice for that window.

The 6z Para GFS also looks good for the possible event early next week. It does not cut the low into the lakes.

The 0z EPS still looks good for the early next week winter storm chance. The mean still has the general idea of a low track to the Ohio Valley and then transferring off of the coast. There is still over a week to go until the event, so there is lots of time for changes for the Op runs to lock in over the next few days.

The 18z GEFS looks similar to the EPS for the early next week threat.

The 12z EPS offered a wide range of solutions from big hits to events similar to the Op run, to whiffs to everything in between. Here is the 12z EPS for the 3 day window around this storm chance early next week. I like where we are sitting at this time.

At this point, I would be good with the Euro or Canadian runs today with a weaker system that does not cut. I would take a nice all snow 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 inch all snow event.

One final map for now, which is the 0z EPS overall 15 day snow map. This is a great snow signal for our region. It is great to see the 6 inch snow line extend to the South of I-95 for the first time in a long time! This is all mostly for next week, with the early week threat and then another chance later in the week.

Here is the 0z EPS snow map for just the 3 days near the time period of this early next week winter storm chance. This is a nice snow signal for over one week out. I like that on this map, CTP is right in the middle with some room to spare on all sides for inevitable adjustments.

The 0z EPS still looked really good for the winter storm chance for early next week. The general low track cluster goes to the Ohio Valley and then transfers to the mid Atlantic coast. Here are snapshots of one of the 6 hr precip panels early in the storm and then another map with the low clusters later in the storm on Monday night.

The 18z GFS again brought CTP snow for the possible storm early next week. Hopefully we start to lock in on this threat potential over the next couple of days.

The GFS & Euro both have good agreement today with the position of the low for 9 days out. The GFS has the transferred low off of the Virginia coast while deepening as it heads north. Here is the 12z GFS for comparison.