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Blizzard of 93

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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93

  1. Blizzard of 93
    The differences between CTP & Mt. Holly are a little interesting along the border of the forecast offices.
  2. Blizzard of 93
    For tonight’s Christmas Eve Eve event, The 12z NAM ‘s brought better precip down to the I-81 corridor of the LSV & were also are slightly colder than recent runs.
  3. Blizzard of 93
    The latest GEFS run today continues to look good for snow chances for CTP. Most of the snow on this run arrives between New Year’s Eve & the first week of January.
  4. Blizzard of 93
    Thanks for getting this started! Here is some good news to start this thread. The 12z GFS gives us 2 snow storms. The first one arrives for New Year’s Eve & drops 3-4 inches of snow for CTP. The second one arrives on January 2nd & puts down another 2 or 3 inches of snow. This would be a great way to ring in the New Year!
  5. Blizzard of 93
    We need to change the momentum in here. The thread title still says “ Fall “ , but we are now in winter ! Maybe that will get things going in here & get @pasnownut to start getting more excited when I post snow maps overnight ?
  6. Blizzard of 93
    The period from New Year’s weekend to the first week of January look to be very active with a few winter storm chances. The general theme looks to be cold air pushing the boundary south of PA, with Lows then riding up the coast that deliver the snow to CTP. The Euro & GFS Ops & the ensembles are saying that we will be very busy here next week! All that I want for Christmas is for this Euro Control run to verily!
  7. Blizzard of 93
    The 0z NAM does like the idea of a little early Christmas Eve snow !
  8. Blizzard of 93
    The Euro weeklies look amazing beginning in early January! Game on !!!
  9. Blizzard of 93
    Even if we miss out on a little Christmas snow, the GEFS & EPS are looking promising in the day 10-15 window as we end 2018 & begin the new year. Snow amounts Have been increasing on the last few runs of each.
  10. Blizzard of 93
    Yes indeed ! The Euro has now shown this for a few model runs in a row, with the bullseye shifting north & south. I think most of would take this & run !
  11. Blizzard of 93
    We have a chance at some Christmas snow & everyone is here talking about Piedmont !
  12. Blizzard of 93
    The 0z Euro continued to like the idea of Christmas snow. It actually brought the second wave in slightly stronger & delivered the best amounts just to the south of CTP. Previous Euro runs had placed the bullseye near I-80. We still have plenty of time to go to work out the details, but I think this has a chance to bring a minor event to CTP for Christmas!
  13. Blizzard of 93
    The ensembles today continued to show improvement with the pattern change towards the end of December into early January. Snow amounts improved at 12z today for the day 10 to day 15 range over what they were showing the last several days.
  14. Blizzard of 93
    CTP in their discussion today mentioned the possibility of our Christmas snow. They referenced the current difference between the Euro & GFS. The Euro at 12z showed 2 chances of snow around Christmas. The first possibility is for some very light snow on Christmas Eve day from a weak wave. The second possibility is on Christmas night into early on the 26th from a wave that looks to be slightly stronger. Hopefully more models join the Euro & deliver us some Christmas snow!
  15. Blizzard of 93
    Ok, 1 more thing... The new Euro weeklies issued this evening are starting the better pattern by early January. The run from week 3 to the end of the 6 week run looks amazing ! This could be a great winter if the advertised Euro pattern verifies !
  16. Blizzard of 93
    Ok, moving forward, the warm up is not going to last much longer than the end of this week. The MJO is moving into phase 5 for the last week of the month, which is cold in El-Nino December’s. There is a chance of a light snow event for Christmas that the 12z Euro showed again today!
  17. Blizzard of 93
    Yes, we are well above average snow for the season to date & below normal temps to date. I’ll post this again :
  18. Blizzard of 93
    100 % agree We were running below normal temps all month until this weekend. We just missed a major snow storm that hit about 200 miles south of us thanks to some amazingly bad timed temporary block that strengthened at the wrong time for us.
  19. Blizzard of 93
    100 % agree !
  20. Blizzard of 93
    This pattern is not as bad as everyone thinks. I think this place will be busy by next weekend!
  21. Blizzard of 93
    The Euro & Canadian at 12z today like the idea of a weak wave around Christmas that could produce a little snow for CTP!
  22. Blizzard of 93
    The 12z NAM says that many of us see some snow flakes this afternoon!?
  23. Blizzard of 93
    The 6z GFS has a little snow for us on Christmas morning! Only 9 more days to track it ...!
  24. Blizzard of 93
    We need to keep our eye on a possible snow event for Christmas Eve & Christmas morning. The models have been recently showing a weak over running type of storm that could produce an advisory level event. If the High pressure area to the north can strengthen slightly to lock in just a little more cold air, without suppressing the storm, we could be in a good spot for a chance at some Christmas snow !
  25. Blizzard of 93
    Here is the 12z GEFS our through 384 hours, which takes us to New Year’s Eve. There are a few ensemble members that would make us happy! We have had many “great” patterns in the past that haven’t brought much snow. We have also had luck in patterns that have not looked great from a couple of weeks out. It doesn’t have to be cold, but just “cold enough” to get snow in December.
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