Blizzard of 93

CTP is starting to get on board with the wintry mix for New Year’s and even mentioned the possibility of the coastal for Sunday into Monday. “With a 1035 surface high over upstate NY Thursday night, the models continue to trend colder for Friday. Cold air damming sets up with Friday morning low temps in the upper teens north to 30 degrees near the Mason-Dixon line. Held subfreezing air temps later into the day on Friday with snow now forecast. A deep low moves northeast across the Ohio valley toward the Great Lakes Friday, with a shield of overrunning / WAA precip beginning as snow and changing to a wintry mix by midday. The threat of freezing rain could lead to dangerous travel on NYE, but confidence is low at this time. In addition to winter hazards, will continue to keep an eye on flooding concerns with this storm though currently the threat has decreased. Looking at maybe 1-2 inches liquid. Colder air moves in Saturday with chance snow showers over the northwest mountains near the PA border. Both the NAEFS and ECMWF now show a coastal storm developing next Sun-Mon, but it is too early to say if this potential storm would impact central PA.”

The 0z Euro was on board for the follow up system on Sunday into Monday for a minor snow event for CTP. This would be a nice little bonus while we wait for the better pattern to get established.

The pattern from the end of the 15 ensembles posted above was carried forward on the Euro Weeklies run yesterday that went out to early February. The pattern from mid to late January could bring a really good period of winter weather to our region. Once the west based block gets established, it looks to remain in place until early February according to the Euro Weeklies.

The end of the 12z EPS, GEFS & Canadian ensembles today all had a similar look with a great blocking pattern with a more west based -NAO and the trough in the east. Good winter storm tracking days are ahead if this look verifies!

This is a beautiful west based -NAO blocking pattern on the 0z EPS & GEFS. The blocking has been consistently shifting to the west over the last several ensemble runs, but it will take a little time to get there. The week of the 10th of January onward could be loaded with winter storm chances for us if this pattern arrives as advertised.

We also need to keep an eye on the chance of a follow up storm chance next Sunday or Monday. Some models have shown the chance over the last few days, but most have not been developing a storm or have been keeping any storm chance well offshore. The 0z Canadian shows this potential storm chance and the Para-GFS apparently also shows it according to some posters in other regional threads on here. So while we wait for the good -NAO blocking pattern to get into a better position over the next couple of weeks, we might have a wintry event or two to track in the meantime.

The 0z GFS & Canadian agree with the concern of a messy mix event possibility this coming weekend. The Euro also has it, but to a lesser extent. It will depend on the strength of the High to determine how much mixing CTP would get and the duration before changing to rain.

It’s just a matter of time until the blocking pays off for our Winter Storm chances, One the -NAO blocking shifts a little to the west, we should be in business. We just need to stay patient.

Nice! Did they say what the issue was with it?

Had anyone heard if something is wrong with the thermometer at MDT? At 9am they are showing a current temperature of 38 degrees. The next warmest location in PA is Philadelphia at 26 degrees currently. Yesterday, it also seemed like their temperature was way off from what surrounding locations were showing.

Good morning everyone! MDT recorded .3 inches of snow yesterday making it an official White Christmas for Harrisburg!

Steady light snow continues in Marysville! The roads & all surfaces caved! Beautiful way to end Christmas evening!

It’s snowing again now in Marysville! 2 rounds of snow on Christmas Day is a win!

Same here! Official Christmas coating!

Nice!

Legit moderate snow is coming down now in Marysville! It is sticking to all surfaces!

Christmas Flurries have started in Marysville!

The 12z GFS is on board for a period of light snow today for many of us... maybe a solid coating?

This still counts as snow on the ground in Christmas in my book! There are several areas of plowed & shoveled snow in my neighborhood that survived the torch monsoon yesterday! Also, go & check out the Mid Atlantic thread. Many reports now of light snow in MD & northern VA. The radar looks to be blossoming to our south & west. I think we that we have the chance to get some light snow or snow showers in the LSV in the next couple of hours!

The 3k NAM 12z run likes the idea today of developing snow showers over a good part of the Susquehanna Valley. Maybe a Christmas dusting will still be possible to brighten the holiday spirit today?

Merry Christmas everyone! The Euro Weeklies last night keep the -NAO pattern going until late January. We should get snow chances in this pattern. I saw recently that @psuhoffman claimed the period from January 5th to the 15th as the window to watch for winter storm chances for our region. Our time will come if this type of pattern persists for several weeks. We just need to be patient!

@MAG5035 How is the cold front doing in your Area now? What are your thoughts on the prospects of seeing some snow from your area over to the Susquehanna Valley tomorrow?

Thank goodness! We don’t need more rain...

It’s not too far away...western PA & WV are getting good snow later today and Warnings are up for them!

Crazy weather day in store for us this Christmas Eve! I am happy to be waking up on Christmas Eve morning with snow on the ground! Hopefully those 4 hours of sleet that we didn’t enjoy last week will help to fight off the melting from the rain and 1 day warm up today! Maybe we can get a fresh coating of snow for Christmas morning?