Blizzard of 93

It’s hard to believe that with this radar & the cold air coming back in tonight that something would not work out to deliver snow to us this weekend. Maybe we will get a last second miracle ?

Joe Bastardi & Bernie Rayno are not writing the storm off & think there is a chance this still comes back north for Saturday. I think we will know by the 12z runs tomorrow am. All of the pieces should be onshore & in a better area for the models to handle. We have 3 chances in the next 5 days to get MDT 2 more inches of snow to reach the 40 inch mark for the season !

Yes, I just looked it up & here it is :

Crazy swing south by all the models overnight. Usually we see shifts within 3 days of 50 miles or so per run, but the NAM for example shifted a couple hundred miles south in 1 run ! Still 48 hours to go, let’s see what today brings.

For those of us with short term memory issues...here is how well the GFS did with our snowstorm 2 days ago. Please see this map below from 12z 4/1, Less than 24 hours before the event, it had the jackpot along the PA- MD line, & fringed areas near I-80. We all know how that turned out, with next to nothing near the MD border, to 5-6 inches near I-80 when all was said & done. The NAM & Euro will lead the way again with our Saturday storm.

Nice start to the 0z runs with the NAM!

Most models trended north today & now put most of CTP in the game for good snow on Saturday! Hopefully we settle into the sweet spot for this one over the next day or so. The last few storms, the good old Euro & NAM combo has been a good indicator of where the best snow will go, & I like where those 2 models went today for CTP. CPC seems to like the further north trend!

The EPS shifted north with the Saturday snow storm. The EPS mean snow map through the Saturday event has the 6 inch snow line up to the PA turnpike, with even more to the south. The EPS Control run through the Saturday event has the 6 inch snow line running along I-81 in PA through the LSV, with even more to the South. I think at least the LSV will get into the good snow stuff with this event, & possibly most of CTP.

The GFS & Euro, along with the ensembles all trended north with the Snow storm potential for Saturday. Last night at 0z, the Euro had the 2 inch snow line near Baltimore, but now the 2 inch snow line is near Harrisburg. The GEFS also just went north & has the .5 inch of precip Line near Harrisburg, when earlier today it was south of the MD -PA line. Yesterday’s storm really trended north within 72 hours & the jackpot area ended up near I-80, when a few days before it looked like they would be fringed. Oh, & then there is next week’s storm...

It was great to score 3.9 inches of snow at MDT to bring the seasonal total to date up to 38 inches. This is crazy considering that they started March at 18 inches. The 18z GFS & GEFS say that we have the chance to make a run at more snow. They both give us chances on Saturday & again on Sunday night into Monday. Onward to a 40+ inch snow season !

About 3.5 inches here in Marysville, but it’s tough to get an exact measurement due to compaction, & surface temps 33 to 34.

That’s great MAG, Congrats! I have about 3 inches as of now in Marysville. I’m happy that it still is snowing at your place, so that means I still have a few more hours to go here ! Do you have any thoughts on our snow chances later this week ?

Here is one final look at the 3k NAM for this event with the 6z run.

I got up a little while ago around 4am & there was heavy snow in Marysville. All surfaces , including the roads, are snow covered & we look to be working on 2 inches of snow at this hour. MDT at 4 am was Snowing with 1 mile visibility & was down to 34. The radar looks good all the way back to eastern Ohio, so we should have a few more hours to go.

The 0z 3k NAM still looks good. The radar to our west looks great & is heading right towards CTP.

The 18z NAM 3k looks good for tomorrow.

The GFS & Euro crush us next weekend! You need to subtract about 4 inches from these amounts below because of the storm tomorrow morning. It is a week away, but the pattern supports it. The ensembles have been mixing in solutions like this for days. It’s going to be a fun week of bonus tracking !

The 3k NAM is an Easter treat!

I was just thinking the same thing. MDT started March at 18 inches of snow, & currently is sitting at 34 inches now. If Harrisburg gets 4 inches tomorrow & then gets only 2 more inches with the potential next weekend storm, a 40 + inch season will go down as one of the best end game winters for this area.

CTP has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4 inches , with locally up to 5 inches for parts of the LSV. Here is their current “Most Likely” map.

Happy Easter ! Here is the 3k NAM this morning to put a little “hop” in everyone’s step !

Here are the 0z NAMs The 3k has a Dauphin county bullseye!

The models this afternoon continue to look good for Monday am snow.

The 12z NAMs say that the I -80 crew might get included along with the LSV for our Early Monday April snow event ! Maybe an overall CTP special ?!?

Things are still looking for some snow for late Sunday night & early Monday am.