Blizzard of 93

10 to 1 & Kuchera ratio maps. Breathtaking!

7 am Thursday. The low moves east from the southern NJ coast and the deform band is still pounding away at CTP.

4 am Thursday. The low is off the coast of Cape May, NJ. The deform band is crushing CTP!

1 am Thursday. No words needed.

10 pm Wednesday. Heavy snow continues.

Here is 7 pm Wednesday night. Snow is intensifying from south to north!

Here is the beginning of storm as steady snow is overspreading all of CTP.

I’ll post some frame by frame maps soon for all to enjoy!

My heart did stop!!! Mary Mother of God!!!!

Euro time....!

Oh Canada!

February of 03 President’s Day storm was another north trender for CTP. I think they were calling for 6 to 10 but then Harrisburg ended up around 20 inches total.

Come on man, we need you fired up!

Meanwhile back to tomorrow... an early look at the 12z HRRR shows agreement with the NAM.

I couldn’t wait for the good maps to update, but here is the 12z Canadian! CTP crushed!

I thought Tamaqua was the new precip magnet?

Usually confluence is over modeled and slowly backs off closer to the event.

With the low tucked in to the DelMarVa like the GFS shows, I think the precip shield would push heavier snow further north & west in PA.

The Lancaster crew will love the 12z GFS but the I-99 crew will not!

Here are the 12z NAMs for tomorrow. They have indeed juiced back up!

Let’s do this! I am fired up!

It sounds like an Advisory may be incoming for tomorrow for the LSV. CTP has a fantastic discussion on tomorrow’s appetizer event. They really brought their “A” game for this write up! “A decent short wave trough over the lower MS valley around midnight will zip northeast and not really tilt negative, rather ride on the SWrly flow aloft. The influx of moisture will deepen a sfc low over the Deep South, scooting it mainly east, crossing the East Coast around Norfolk Monday afternoon. The dynamics do impress with a good shield of warm-advection precip overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states. The northern extent of the precip looks like it will be around I-80 or just to the north. The temps aloft are favorable for snow for all of the CWA, with good omega/up-motion in the favorable dendritic snow growth zone of -10 to -15C layer aloft. A deep moist layer beneath this DGZ will fatten the dendrites. Lift looks like it will be maximized over the srn tier, esp right along the PA Turnpike on Monday morning. Expect temps to fall into the l-m30s during the first part of tonight before the clouds and snow move in. While there could be a mix of rain and snow along the Mason-Dixon Line and just a few miles north, much of the initial precip should be snow, and a wet/high-water-content snow at that. Some of the hi- res models are projecting a risk of 1"/hr rates in the morning as banded precip should develop on the NW side of the baroclinic leaf. The higher probabilities of the brief heavy snow rates will be along the Turnpike and either side of it by 30-40 miles. The trips here are the sfc temps and fast forward motion of the storm. The storm is only producing precip over the CWA for 6-8 hrs. The temps in the area where the snow is falling should wet-bulb down to near and slightly below freezing and stay there until the snow starts to lighten up. Have tried to paint that into the temp grids. The highest snowfall totals will be in the higher elevations in the first tier of counties. Mt Davis, South Mtn and the Furnace Hills will likely see 1-3" more than the lower elevations around them. We have chosen to raise the snowfall numbers. After collaboration with our neighboring offices, we decided to not issue an advisory at this time, but this looks like a fairly solid advy (2-3") snowfall for much of the srn tier or two of counties, esp due to the timing (morning rush). The next shift may have to do the heavy lifting. The morning rush hour is a worry at this point because of the expected arrival/start time of the snow. This may be an accumulation which occurs mainly on the grass and colder surfaces. But, if the road temps are warmer, the travel impacts may turn out to be less than currently expected.”

Back to the present, the 6z GFS and NAM both have some snow for the LSV with the appetizer event tomorrow.

Looking beyond the pending major storm this week, the 0z Euro is dialing up another winter storm chance next Sunday into Monday. Could you imagine if we had 3 measurable snows in 1 week!?!

Good morning! Great coverage of the Euro on here last night everyone! I needed to get some sleep. It’s going to be an awesome week of tracking! Here is the 0z EPS. Great mean low placement and a tremendous amount of precip.