Blizzard of 93

The radar in the Midwest looks good now for round 1 tonight. CTP still has 1-2 inches for most by tomorrow am for round 1.

Yes, but just showing to emphasize the exaggerated extent of the frozen precip. Cut in half & it’s still good...

Here is the combined 2 round total from the 0z EPS.

If even even half of this is a bust, then I think many of us will take it !

The 3k NAM at 6z agrees with your call. Here are the maps for just round 1 & then the combined map for rounds 1 & 2 . Also, just joking here, I feel left out of your forecast ! ... I live right between @canderson& @CarlislePaWx In Marysville, which is about 5 miles north of Harrisburg.

Here is the 0z Euro 10-1 ratio & Kuchera. This is the total snow amount through Wednesday am. About 2 inches of this is from round one tomorrow evening through Monday am. The second & more significant round of snow starts back up by early Monday evening. It continues as snow in the LSV until Tuesday morning after sunrise. Then it mixes over to a long period of sleet & freezing rain that lasts until late Tuesday afternoon. Then it looks like most of us go to plain rain by Tuesday evening. Most of the models are now showing not to be much of a break between round 1 & 2 on Monday afternoon. It is another very good Euro run for CTP!

The MJO progresses into phase 8 & 1 more quickly on the Euro MJO forecast today. The SOI also should be crashing over the next few days. The models should respond with moving the trough more to the east by next week. Then the tour through MJO phase 8-1-2 should carry us to a great last month or so of winter !

Please tell us more... I don’t have access to the 18z or 6z Euro.

Thanks. I think those of us back towards the I-81 corridor will have at least a few inches of snow, then a long round of sleet & freezing rain on Tuesday. Hopefully the ice will preserve our snow.

Thanks! I’m getting more excited for this storm with each run of the models. The short range Meso models should begin to take the lead. I think we have a chance to do well with snow & ice with this event. I’m also fired up for the longer range. The EPS & GEFS have really been upping the ante the last few runs as well.

The 18z NAM trended colder as well from the last couple of runs for All of CTP.

The models at 12z have a pretty good consensus for our early week snow. The UKMET continues to insist on this bringing larger snow totals. The rest of the 12z guidance seems to be in the same 4 to 8 inch snow range For CTP.

Yes, I know what you mean. We would be constantly shoveling all of our digital snow!

The 6z GEFS shows the goal post narrowing that I mentioned. The large hits & whiffs are gone. Almost all of the ensemble members show 3-5 inches of snow for most of us by the end of Tuesday.

I get your point about snow maps, especially from longer range. The ensembles should be looked at for a range of possibilities. They do however have more value within a few days of an event.

I think the models are just in the stage of narrowing the goalposts. Most of us north of the MD line have not budged with snow amounts for the last couple of days. The CTP forecast discussion this morning seemed confident in a few inches of snow for most of us. They are also worried about a prolonged period of mixing with ice, & think many of us may struggle to get above freezing for most of the day on Tuesday.

We still have the 0z UKMET on our side. We have lots of room for error with this map, but hopefully we stay in the bullseye!

The full EPS 15 day run also produced the best 15 day EPS snow map that I have seen yet this season. It has been consistently upping the snow totals for the last few days for our region.

The 0z Euro still looks good for CTP snow early this week. We appear to be on the right side of the boundary for a front end thump of snow. This should be followed by mixing & then go over to rain towards the end of the event. Here is the 0z Euro & 0z EPS, which seem to agree with each other.

The MJO is moving into phase 8 & 1 over the next couple of weeks. The SOI will be going negative as well. The models will respond & the best period of winter will be from mid February to mid March.

Most models today support the idea of good front end snow for CTP early this week. The Euro at 12z looked good. Tonight the NAM & Canadian also support the Euro. Still lots of details to work out over the next couple of days.

The 18z GFS &18z GEFS say that we should get our snow shovels ready beginning next Tuesday. The 18z GEFS is the full 16 day run. That looks like multiple snow threats.

The 0z UKMET is the new favorite model for CTP snow early next week!

The 0z run of the Euro still has front end snow for the early week storm.

The more people that post, the more people will respond. If folks complain no one is posting, maybe they should post something? Just a thought to make this place better !