Blizzard of 93

The 6z Euro held the same decent look as 0z for the front end snow for the LSV and south central PA before the mixing takes place.

Here is part of the CTP forecast discussion this morning : “Low pressure will lift out of the Mississippi Valley and gradually weaken as it moves up the Ohio River Valley. Model consensus is to advect the leading edge of a relatively large area of light to moderate wintry precip northeast across the state this afternoon and early tonight. Sub-Zero C wet bulb temps will occur through a deep enough layer this afternoon through early tonight to support a few to several hour period of snow and accums generally around 1.5-2 inches followed by a several hour period of sleet in most places late tonight and early Tuesday. This will be a widespread, moderate impact weather evening with a layering of a few inches of snow, topped by a thin layer of sleet and freezing rain.”

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 329 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 PAZ010>012-017>019-027-028-045-049-050-056-057-059-066-252300- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0005.210126T0500Z-210126T1800Z/ Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Mifflin-Juniata-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder- Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Lancaster- Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, and Lancaster 329 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to two inches, followed by ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the tuesday morning commute.

The 0z Euro, Control run & EPS each improved over the last few runs for the snow potential with the front end of the storm Monday night into Tuesday am.

The 18z EPS also improved for the front end snow tomorrow night for the Susquehanna Valley west of the river.

The 18z Euro juiced up the front end snow for the early week event for the Susquehanna Valley especially west of the river. Still plenty of time tonight & tomorrow to continue to improve it.

CTP updated the forecast and this is what it has now for Harrisburg. Monday Night Snow before 1am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. Low around 31. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow and freezing rain likely, possibly mixed with sleet before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 38. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Here is the latest map from CTP for this early week event.

This is not fully decided yet. There are still over 24 hours to go before the event begins and we are still in the game. It won’t take much to get the early week event back to a 3 inch plus snow event for many of us.

Don’t worry everyone...if the 2 events fizzle out this week, the models have begun to focus on another Miller B type of event next Sunday or Monday. This blocking pattern has to payoff at some point right!?!? Here is the 12z Euro for the potential event next Early next week.

I was going to dust off the SREF and post it a little earlier! Maybe this old school model will pull out the win for this storm? Hopefully the short range models will lock back in to the juicer WAA front end look that they had showed previously over the last few days. We still have over 24 hours until the event begins, so there is time for another adjustment.

The best part of both of the 12z NAM runs is that the best snow totals are from the southern tier of PA and to the south in MD. Still over 36 hours to go for a small bump north to get most of us back in the good snow thump by game time.

The 12z HRRR which extends out to 48 hours has some front end snow for us Monday night.

Hopefully the 12z runs juice back up the Monday night & Tuesday event so we can get a decent front end snow thump before we mix.

The 6z GFS & GEFS are still giving the southern third of PA snow with the Thursday event. Plenty of time for a further north trend & hopefully the Euro gets on board today as well.

Here is the 2 event snow total Kuchera ratio 0z GFS snow map for both storms combined this week.

The 0z GFS run gets decent snow into the southern third of PA for the Thursday event. Just as @Itstrainingtime has mentioned, this is right where we want it to be at this range. Plenty of time for a slight north trend to get us in the jackpot zone closer to game time.

That was a great 18z GFS run. The end of the run looks very cold as you mentioned. Multiple winter storm chances and even 1 more threat moving into the central states at the end of the run that would hit us the following day or 2.

Here are the 0z NAM 3k & 12k snow maps. The 3k still has precip going at the end of the 60 hour run which is a mix for most of us at that point.

The 0z NAMs get a decent front end thump of snow into CTP Monday night and then transition to a wintry mix by Tuesday morning. Here is the front end snow thump as it moves into the LSV Monday evening on the 3k & 12k 0z NAM.

I like the look of the long range 3k NAM at the end of its 60 hour run. Lots more precip to go after the run ends.

Yes, there is a long way to go, especially with the late week system. I agree with your point that I would rather be looking for a north trend with 5 days to go in a set up like this. As for the early week storm, we will need to watch the short range model trends over the next couple of days. I think many of us will see 3 to 6 inches of snow by the time this first event ends by Tuesday night. I also hope for a little mix at the end to put a nice glaze or crust on top of the snow!

The ensembles still favor all of CTP to get 3 to 4 inches of snow with the early week event. From here out out, the short range models should be best to narrow the goalposts further with amounts, precip mixing, etc.

A little sleet & freezing rain on top helps the snow to stay around longer!

The 2 potential events this week on the 6z GFS have combined snow total maps that are too good to not post! Here are the 10-1 ratio & Kuchera ratio snow maps.