Blizzard of 93

The 12z Canadian low position & track is very good. The low stalls off of the DelMarVa and southern NJ coast. Notice the second precip max over State College back towards Latrobe due to the banding that sets up this run. This back could set up further east or west or maybe just fill in. The bottom line is that we are all still very much in the game.

We are all good, let’s move on! Storm Day!

Here is the latest from CTP updated 10:36 am. For the Harrisburg area, I could live with 13 Expected inches and a High End chance of 20!

Here is the 12z GFS QPF

It will all depend on where the best banding sets up with the CCB tomorrow. Often times heavier precip gets pushed further to the west in this set up as there is usually a second max zone in the banding. I like the position of the low on the GFS

The 12z GFS followed the same theme and has jackpot in eastern PA, BUT, most of the Susquehanna Valley STILL ends up with over 16 inches of snow this run.

All good, good luck to you out there!

Don’t they have a Pittsburgh thread on here? Asking for a friend....

The “shift”, if it is even reality on some models takes the heaviest snow to the east, BUT.... the Susquehanna Valley & points west STILL get near a foot of snow or more. Most of us in here are NOT near Pittsburgh!!!! Here are the 12z RGEM & ICON( only available in 10-1 ratio)

No models except for the trash NAM are showing this....the storm is just starting.

The good snow today is not supposed to be until later this afternoon & evening.

Yes, steady light snow began in Marysville within the last hour! Every flake is sticking instantly!

Exactly! We should be well ahead of the game even if this event under performs a little bit.

That dry slot is over 1 inch of QPF for your county!

Here are the 6z Euro Kuchera & QPF for all of PA

That’s the GFS

Here is the 6z EPS. Steady the last 4 runs!

The 6z Euro still looks great

The 6z GFS was another CTP crusher.

Here is the CTP Warning for the rest of the counties including Lebanon & Lancaster. Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 PAZ042-046-051-053-058-059-066-312200- /O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210202T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.210131T1500Z-210202T1000Z/ Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-Columbia-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Lancaster- Including the cities of Laporte, Williamsport, Danville, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Lancaster 452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches, with the highest amounts north of Harrisburg. A light glaze of ice is likely south of Harrisburg. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Light snow will overspread the region late this morning and continue through tonight. The snow could become heavier on Monday and potentially mix with ice south of Harrisburg. Expect the snow to taper by late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult today through Monday evening.

Good morning!!! it looks like CTP escalated the Winter Storm Warning by bumping snow totals up a few inches. Hopefully this continues to bump up as the storm gets underway, Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 PAZ019-024>028-033>036-045-049-050-052-056-057-063>065-312200- /O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210202T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.210131T1000Z-210202T1000Z/ Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset- Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder- Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-York- Including the cities of State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Sunbury, Shamokin, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York 452 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches, with the highest amounts north and east of Harrisburg. A light glaze of ice is also likely from Harrisburg southward. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Light snow will overspread the region this morning and continue through tonight. The snow could become heavier on Monday and potentially mix with ice from Harrisburg southward. Expect the snow to taper off by late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult today through Monday evening.

Wow!!!

0z Canadian ensembles look great yet again! Remarkable totals for an ensemble run.

The 0z GEFS remained steady with 10 to 14 inches at 10-1 Ratio for most of CTP.

This UKMET 10-1 ratio snow map through Tuesday am. Good run for the LSV.