Blizzard of 93

Here is the 18z EPS QPF map for the event tomorrow. It’s still good enough for an advisory event for the LSV tomorrow.

I was busy the last few minutes pulling maps from the 18z GFS. The snow opportunities over the next 2 weeks are lining up! It’s quite a long line of chances... The first major chance begins Wednesday night with overrunning snow breaking out over CTP which continues at varying intensities until Friday. The Euro and Canadian today had most of CTP changing over to a long period of mixed precip after several inches of snow. The 18z GFS came in with more of a cold press, so it kept CTP in mostly all snow for the duration of the event. It will all depend on where the boundary sets up to determine if we stay all snow or change to a mix on Thursday into Friday. Here is the 18z GFS for the beginning of the event Wednesday night and then towards the end of the storm on Friday. The snow map is just for this late week event.

The 18z Euro still looks good for an advisory event for the LSV tomorrow.

Just like last week when you said on the day of the storm that the most anyone would get would be 3 to 6.... and then you got over 12!?!!

The 12z Euro still looks good for the LSV to get 3 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow according to this run. I am riding the historically great old school combo of the NAM & Euro for tomorrow.

I just took a look at some current conditions and have a few thoughts on the event tomorrow. Currently around noon, temps are in the low 20s in northwest PA with dew points in the single digits. Currently in Baltimore/DC area, temps are in the mid to high 40s with dew points in the 20s. In the LSV, temps are in the low 40’s with few points in the low 20’s. I think that the storm will ride up along the thermal boundary. The radar is blossoming nicely in the south east back towards Mississippi & Alabama and is already streaming towards the northeast. I think the LSV is in a good spot for a solid 3 to 5 inches, with a few lucky spots (read Cashtown...) getting a chance at 6 inches of snow by the end of tomorrow.

Yes, I loved the map as well! Did Horst put a map out yet by chance for tomorrow?

Lol, look back at the last few pages... this is coming up from the south and could be a moderate event.

Here is the 6z GFS snow map for the late week event time period only. Very nice...!

The 6z GFS had a great run for the Thursday and Friday event this week. It shows a long duration snow to ice to snow event that buries CTP yet again! Here are maps showing the beginning, middle & end of the event on the 6z GFS.

This EPS & GEFS are sending a tremendous snow signal over the next 2 weeks. The storm later this week and the pattern beyond look very interesting for our winter storm chances. Usually I get excited seeing the 6 inch snow line near the LSV on these 2 week ensemble maps, but these amounts are in double digits! It all gets started tomorrow morning!

The 6z Euro held steady for our Super Bowl snow tomorrow morning.

Here is the 0z EPS for Sunday.

Here is the 0z Euro for Sunday. It is on board with 2 inches for the northern Susquehanna Valley and 3 to 5 for the LSV.

The 12z global ensembles are showing a ton of potential for multiple snow chances over the next 2 weeks. Here are the GEFS, Canadian & EPS. This is one of the best signals of the year besides the day or two before our 2 major events so far this season.

The next threat is showing on all of the major models between Thursday & Saturday. Currently they show a snow to mix storm. It will all depend on where the boundary sets up between the pressing Artic air and the ridging to the south. Hopefully we are in the sweet spot for mostly snow, but plenty of time to go!

The 3k NAM has the low nice and tucked in just off of the coast of OCMD. It brings the heavier band of snow into the LSV. This run ups the ante to make this more of a 4 to 7 inch event for most of the Susquehanna Valley.

Yes, but we are getting it back on Sunday & next week!

The 18z Euro looks good for 2 to 4 inches of snow on Sunday for eastern CTP.

18z GFS looked just fine to me with a widespread 3 to 5 inches of snow for many in CTP on Sunday.

Don’t worry, it will change 10 times between now & Sunday morning!

Oh, and we should get a little snow overnight tonight!

The 18z GFS & GEFS continue to head the right way for the Super Bowl Sunday storm.

You mean this awesomeness ... ?!?!? What a run...Let’s buckle up!

For tonight, CTP likes the idea of many of us seeing 1 to 2 inches of snow. Here is part of the CTP discussion: ”The most likely scenario is that it will be all snow (fat, heavy, juicy flakes) with just enough melting to have a little rain mix in at times, mainly across the south. Really can`t see a widespread risk of ice accretions as the snow will be falling at the same time. Will mention some chc for ZR in the wx grids and a tiny amount of ice accum here and there, but confidence is very low that anyone will notice it or be affected by it. Will hold off on any advys at this point, and allow the dayshift one more look at it. The sloppy, wet snow should keep us below 10:1 SLR for sure across the S, but nudging up around 12:1 in the nrn tier. We could get a little more than 2" in spots, mainly N and W of I-81 and on the higher hill tops. Most places will end up with 1-2" by the end of the precip (which is just after 12Z in the eastern zones). While the precip should end before sunrise in many places, the wind shift behind the cold front will turn it colder and cause some upslope/lake effect SHSN in the N.”