Blizzard of 93

I’m frustrated too, especially with how good things looked on most models just a few days ago! It’s not over yet, there is a ton of Arctic air not too far to our west. It’s all about where the boundary sets up tomorrow into Tuesday. If this fails on Tuesday, then we have another chance on Thursday, & maybe early next week according to last night’s Euro. All of CTP is WELL ABOVE normal snow for the season through today’s date. MDT is less than 3 inches away from exceeding climo average snow for the season. We still have a realistic 6 more weeks to score more snow.

Here is the 18z EPS low track clusters. Beautiful track with the low staying to our south & east with High pressure to the north & west... I think this should be at the least a front end thump of snow followed by a prolonged period of sleet/freezing rain for my backyard just outside of Harrisburg. We are in prime climo now... this should work.

Yes, This!!! The second wave that was supposed to hit us with another round of snow on Friday actually ended up SOUTH of DC! Even today, this minor event a few days ago had several models bringing 1 to 3 inches of snow from I-81 on to the northwest. As of now, no significant precip made it north of Baltimore and it looks to remain very weak & be almost a non factor outside of freezing mist. To your point, we have 2 days to go to watch this relatively weak low that is forecast to stay to our south weaken even further. Perhaps it will pass a little further to the southeast to get more of us, especially near I-81, into more snow/sleet vs. freezing rain. We are not too much of a shift away from improving the outcome of this storm.

Freezing Mist currently in Marysville. My Car is already currently encrusted in a light glaze of ice. I’m sure this would be nasty on untreated roads.

@MAG5035 Please let us know your thoughts for Tuesday.

Maybe we will get a Hurricane too on Tuesday?

Yes, for our back yards at the moment ...but to CTP’s point, you don’t need to go too far to get into good snow. The 6 inch snow line is currently around State College & Selinsgrove on the Euro and other models recently.

I meant in general on the Tropical Tidbits site, it only ever shows rain or snow. It is not programmed to show ICE in general. This set up screams Ice potential!

@MAG5035 , @MillvilleWx , @AllWeather Please let us know your thoughts on the precip type battle that is setting up for Tuesday. With this track & all of the cold air close by, do you think that the I-81 corridor on west would have a chance to get more snow/sleet vs. freezing rain?

The ICON does not show Ice....look at temps.

Exactly...I couldn’t believe how the models bumped totals Wednesday afternoon and evening as the storm was beginning, only to see much less verify by the next morning. Also, yes, all of the major ensembles earlier this week we’re producing large amounts of snow day after day, run after run. Things have deteriorated the last couple of days, but we still have to get to game time on Tuesday & Thursday to see what will verify. 60 hours is an eternity in this pattern with so much on the table. There is much to still be decided.

Here is the 12z EPS low track clusters for the Tuesday storm. If this is right... the low will track well to our south and exit off of the DelMarVa.. I agree with CTP that anyone from the I-81 corridor on north & west is still in the game for more snow & sleet vs. freezing rain.

I agree, but the long range NAM... please...

There is absolutely no way the NAM is better than the Euro.... ever!

I don’t trust the 6 hour NAM....let alone the 84 hour....Remember the Wednesday 18z run that gave us 6 to 8 inches of snow that was beginning within a few hours? Most of the LSV ended up with 2 or 3 inches. The Euro is not quite what is used to be...but it is still the best around....by a long shot.

Here is that part of the CTP discussion: “Expect a tight gradient between the heavier snow amounts and areas with no snow, but some uncertainty exists in where this gradient will set-up. This could mean the difference between little to nothing or several inches of snow for areas between the I-80 and I-81 corridors, so we will keep an eye on model updates and the pattern in the gradient.“

Great post...this is very close, especially for the Harrisburg area.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 307 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 PAZ017-018-024>026-033>036-056>059-063-140815- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210214T1300Z/ Clearfield-Northern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Somerset- Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland- Including the cities of DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle 307 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Light freezing drizzle with patchy light snow and sleet. Ice accumulations of a light glaze, and snow and sleet accumulations of less than an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Bridges and elevated road surfaces will be most likely to have ice accretions.

Long range NAM....is like....never mind!

I especially like this part of Bob’s post. “Any run that shows the knife edge within a reasonable distance is a net positive. Who knows what we'll be looking at in a few short days. Real cold is nearby. Lots of precip is overhead. I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet.” This situation is too close to call until the storm is on our doorstep in terms of precip type.

Good post in the Mid Atlantic thread by the great @Bob Chill on the pattern this week: It's a long ways away and future changes will keep coming. Any run that shows the knife edge within a reasonable distance is a net positive. Who knows what we'll be looking at in a few short days. Real cold is nearby. Lots of precip is overhead. I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet. We've trended the wrong way a lot last few weeks. Now that it's ugly instead in the mid range, maybe... just maybe the trend works the other way. After what we've all experienced since mid/late Jan, I'm def not spiking any footballs before the short range starts agreeing... and even then....

Here are the 4 am Tuesday 925, 850 & 700 mb temps. Plenty of very cold air not too far away to tap into with the storm track staying to our south & east.

Here is a snapshot of 4am Tuesday with surface, 925, 850 & 700mb temps for 4am as well. This is very close to a better front end thump of snow for the Harrisburg and I-81 areas and north west from there. A small shift will make all of the difference. Here is the surface precip type map for 4am and the surface temps.

The 12z Euro did tick slightly southeast with the snow line compared to the 6z run for Tuesday. For example, at 6z Harrisburg had 1.4 inches of snow by the end of Tuesday and now at 12z, it had 2.2 of snow. It seems subtle, but still time to pull the 6 inches of snow from State College & Selinsgrove down to the Harrisburg area with the track depicted.

Here is the 12z Euro snow, sleet & freezing rain through Tuesday. Still 2 days to go to see where this trends. I still think from near I-81 on west could be in play for more snow & sleet. With the low track and all of the cold air available very nearby, this needs watched closely.