Blizzard of 93

Great point! As you mentioned earlier, it is going to be a tough call for schools in the LSV, especially if the snow doesn’t move in until 8 or possibly 10 am for eastern areas. An early dismissal would put the busses back on the roads in the middle of the storm in the late morning to early afternoon. It will be interesting to see how this develops. It could be a bad situation for schools & commuters.

My goal for MDT tomorrow is for them to measure 3.9 inches of snow to get the February monthly total to an even 20 inches. Either way, if MDT gets 2 or 3 inches tomorrow, The seasonal total would be near 35 inches. MDT would have a great chance for a 40 inch Winter if March produces the average of 5 to 6 inches.

The models are starting to slightly juice up this storm tomorrow. The Dew points are very low for all of CTP this evening. It will be an interesting 4 to 6 hours to see how much snow we can score. Here are the 18z GFS, Para & RGEM.

The 18z NAMs are looking good for tomorrow. This should help to keep snow in the backyard for the rest of February! Rarely do we keep snow cover for an entire month, so this would be another win for this winter to me.

CTP put out another map showing the timing and impacts.

The 12z Euro is on board for tomorrow.

The 12z GFS Para has a wave Friday night into Saturday that delivers som more CTP snow. Some models have shown this Friday or Saturday possibility on & off the last few days. Maybe we will have 1 more to track before February is done? If not...We still have all of March to go!

The 12z NAM & RGEM are looking good for a nice Advisory snow event tomorrow for most of us.

Good discussion from CTP this morning. “A significant but migratory trough aloft will swing through on Monday. The sfc pattern will feature a deepening low crossing the Upper Great Lakes, pushing a front/trough through later in the day on Monday. While on arm of warm advection/flurries passes overhead tonight, a pre-frontal trough passing thru 10Z-19Z will be the main player. A good 2-4hrs of snow is likely about everywhere during that time frame. The forecasts have been solid on timing and intensity of snow with the trough, arriving before sunrise in the west and between 9-11AM in the east. The GFS continues to be faster with the system, by about 3 hrs. All is very consistent otherwise. There is some enhancement seen in the snowfall rates over the west in the morning with favorable forcing and frontogenesis, and in the east in the afternoon thanks to some instability. HREF supports some 1"+/hr rates in many spots. The QPF is impressive for a fast-moving system, with many places 0.25-0.35" for 12 hrs. The air takes a bit to moisten up overnight, esp NE. The snow will probably turn to, or at least mix with, some rain later in the day thanks to the S/SW wind and breaks after the initial surge of snow/clouds. The maxes will be in the 30s, and perhaps 40F somewhere in the SC mtn valleys. SLRs do change quite a bit thru the event dropping off as we warm on the whole. Lots of drying in the aftn over the S. However, some mixed precip could linger in the far SE. Thinking is that we will eventually need an advy for much of the area for a widespread 2-4". However, SLRs, amounts and p-type are all still in question for the south and fast movement is not helpful when looking for big SF totals. The typical snow shadow down wind of the Laurels could keep them under 2" total, let alone 3". There could even be more snow in the Lower Susq than the S-Central mtns. Thus, after collaboration with the neighboring offices, we will continue to hold off on any advys and allow the dayshift to gather more wisdom and confidence.”

CTP put this map out for tomorrow.

The 18z Euro has the snow moving in slightly earlier than previous runs and gets steady snow from Harrisburg & York on west in the LSV by 10am Monday. it then delivers 2 to 3 inches of snow to all of CTP.

I would sign up for the 18z RGEM for Monday!

@MAG5035 What do you think of the Monday snow potential?

The 12z Euro likes the idea of some Monday snow for Most of us. It falls in line with the CTP expected snow map from this morning.

Yes, the wind is brutal today.

Congrats! The LSV is now in stats padding mode as most of us are above normal snow for the season. We still have about 5 weeks to score some more. Monday will give us another chance.

We will have cold leading in to the event Sunday night and early Monday, but by the time the heavier precip arrives the surface temps & 850s do get more marginal. Good rates should be able to keep the heavier precip as snow.

The 6z Euro looks good for for the Monday snow chance.

CTP seems to be interested in the Monday snow chance. Very nice write up this morning “The most interesting weather will be Monday, mainly in the morning and early aftn. A fast-moving low just now coming on- shore in the western U.S. will be arriving. Clouds will increase Sunday night, with a dusting of snow possible as an arm of warm advective precip crosses the NW half/two-thirds of the CWA overnight. The sfc trough which crosses the area will bring enough moisture to worry about a wint wx advy for a good portion of the area. The fast forward speed and daylight passage of the main slug of precip will be negatives for higher snow totals. The timing of the precip is about 3-4 hours different between the GFS and NAM at this point. The faster GFS would put down much of the precip very early in the day (some before sunrise in the wrn half). This would make it more likely all snow than a mix or plain rain. The slower NAM keeps the precip snow for a long time, as well, despite precip not arriving in the Lower Susq just an hour or so before Noon. The precip rates may also dictate what the p-type will be. Models all pumping out 0.15-0.4" of liquid equiv of pretty much all snow in just 3-5 hrs as the main wave of precip moves thru in the morning. That means 1"/hr rates are possible. But, the wind will not be all that gusty (S <10MPH and no real gusts) as it passes thru. Have nudged maxes down a deg on Monday looking at the cloud cover and snowfall. Snow amounts may end up 2-4" for lots of places, some higher amounts possible in the NW and lower amounts possible in the south-central mountains. The precip lingering behind the first shove of moisture could turn to rain in the SE, but I could easily see 1-2" there, and higher numbers are poss judging from NAM QPF of 0.4" despite SLRs in the 8-10:1 range. Since this event could negatively impact the Mon AM rush, this will need some close attention. Upright instability during the first/main push of precip on Monday is hardly noticeable if any exists. Some CAPE shows up in the aftn across the NW half of the area when the real trough moves through. So, if there is some heating, there could be some squalls there later in the day. But, additional accums will likely be less than in the morning hours.”

It looks like most models today have the majority of CTP getting 1 to 3 inches of snow on Monday.

MDT recorded a 2 day event snow total of 4.2 inches. I enjoyed round 2 with several hours of light snow last night and this morning. Now, it’s time to track our next snow chance on Monday!

Really? There is still a Winter Weather Advisory up for the LSV..... Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1225 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066-190500- /O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210219T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0016.210218T1725Z-210219T1500Z/ Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams- York-Lancaster- Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 1225 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Periods of light snow and mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with a light glaze of ice in spots. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A lull in precipitation will last from early this afternoon into this evening, accompanied by areas of freezing drizzle. Another round of steadier light snow and mixed precipitation returns tonight, with 1 to 3 inches of additional snow accumulation possible tonight through mid morning Friday.

The 0z GFS is on board for round 2 tonight for an inch or 2 of snow yet to come, The radar is filling in to the south & west.

@MAG5035 What are your thoughts on round 2 tonight into tomorrow?

Yes, the 3k NAM is saying don’t forget about the caboose on the snow train tonight! It has 1 to 2 more inches of snow for most of us by tomorrow early afternoon.