Blizzard of 93

The 18z Euro has the snow moving in slightly earlier than previous runs and gets steady snow from Harrisburg & York on west in the LSV by 10am Monday. it then delivers 2 to 3 inches of snow to all of CTP.

I would sign up for the 18z RGEM for Monday!

@MAG5035 What do you think of the Monday snow potential?

The 12z Euro likes the idea of some Monday snow for Most of us. It falls in line with the CTP expected snow map from this morning.

Yes, the wind is brutal today.

Congrats! The LSV is now in stats padding mode as most of us are above normal snow for the season. We still have about 5 weeks to score some more. Monday will give us another chance.

We will have cold leading in to the event Sunday night and early Monday, but by the time the heavier precip arrives the surface temps & 850s do get more marginal. Good rates should be able to keep the heavier precip as snow.

The 6z Euro looks good for for the Monday snow chance.

CTP seems to be interested in the Monday snow chance. Very nice write up this morning “The most interesting weather will be Monday, mainly in the morning and early aftn. A fast-moving low just now coming on- shore in the western U.S. will be arriving. Clouds will increase Sunday night, with a dusting of snow possible as an arm of warm advective precip crosses the NW half/two-thirds of the CWA overnight. The sfc trough which crosses the area will bring enough moisture to worry about a wint wx advy for a good portion of the area. The fast forward speed and daylight passage of the main slug of precip will be negatives for higher snow totals. The timing of the precip is about 3-4 hours different between the GFS and NAM at this point. The faster GFS would put down much of the precip very early in the day (some before sunrise in the wrn half). This would make it more likely all snow than a mix or plain rain. The slower NAM keeps the precip snow for a long time, as well, despite precip not arriving in the Lower Susq just an hour or so before Noon. The precip rates may also dictate what the p-type will be. Models all pumping out 0.15-0.4" of liquid equiv of pretty much all snow in just 3-5 hrs as the main wave of precip moves thru in the morning. That means 1"/hr rates are possible. But, the wind will not be all that gusty (S <10MPH and no real gusts) as it passes thru. Have nudged maxes down a deg on Monday looking at the cloud cover and snowfall. Snow amounts may end up 2-4" for lots of places, some higher amounts possible in the NW and lower amounts possible in the south-central mountains. The precip lingering behind the first shove of moisture could turn to rain in the SE, but I could easily see 1-2" there, and higher numbers are poss judging from NAM QPF of 0.4" despite SLRs in the 8-10:1 range. Since this event could negatively impact the Mon AM rush, this will need some close attention. Upright instability during the first/main push of precip on Monday is hardly noticeable if any exists. Some CAPE shows up in the aftn across the NW half of the area when the real trough moves through. So, if there is some heating, there could be some squalls there later in the day. But, additional accums will likely be less than in the morning hours.”

It looks like most models today have the majority of CTP getting 1 to 3 inches of snow on Monday.

MDT recorded a 2 day event snow total of 4.2 inches. I enjoyed round 2 with several hours of light snow last night and this morning. Now, it’s time to track our next snow chance on Monday!

Really? There is still a Winter Weather Advisory up for the LSV..... Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1225 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066-190500- /O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210219T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0016.210218T1725Z-210219T1500Z/ Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams- York-Lancaster- Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 1225 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Periods of light snow and mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with a light glaze of ice in spots. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A lull in precipitation will last from early this afternoon into this evening, accompanied by areas of freezing drizzle. Another round of steadier light snow and mixed precipitation returns tonight, with 1 to 3 inches of additional snow accumulation possible tonight through mid morning Friday.

The 0z GFS is on board for round 2 tonight for an inch or 2 of snow yet to come, The radar is filling in to the south & west.

@MAG5035 What are your thoughts on round 2 tonight into tomorrow?

Yes, the 3k NAM is saying don’t forget about the caboose on the snow train tonight! It has 1 to 2 more inches of snow for most of us by tomorrow early afternoon.

18z Euro agrees that we will have the chance to tack on some more snow tonight!

They are now over climo seasonal average as of today! We still have over a month to score more! Heck, even tonight may tack on some more...

3.5 as of 5pm

The radar is looking good to our south & west for round 2 tonight! Light snow is underway again here in Marysville with not much showing on radar at the moment.

MDT recorded 3.5 inches of snow today so far at the 5pm climate summary. They are now above normal snow for the whole season! Still over a month to go to pad the stats!

Here are better views of the 18z GFS & ICON. Let’s go round 2 tonight ! All aboard! ( that was for @Bubbler86 !)

The flake size has increased with moderate snow now in Marysville. Yes...the road has caved!

Light snow currently in Marysville with a dusting on all surfaces.

The 6z NAMs still get good snow into most of CTP.

The HRDPS has a nice swath of 6 to 8 inches of snow for the LSV.