Blizzard of 93

CTP freshened up the Watch a few hours ago. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 254 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 PAZ027-028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-172315- /O.EXT.KCTP.WS.A.0007.210218T0900Z-210219T1500Z/ Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland- Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Chambersburg, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 254 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late tonight through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible Thursday morning. The risk of a wintry mix Thursday night has been reduced and shifted farther to the southeast toward I-95.

The 0z Euro & EPS held serve overnight.

The 0z GFS still is locked in for a CTP snow bullseye.

I’m starting to get even more intrigued by the potential Monday event. The Euro control run, for the second consecutive run, has this storm developing into a moderate snow event that is still ongoing at the end of the 144 hour run at 18z.

The 21z SREF also bullseyes southern PA.

Yes, long duration event on both NAMs. Here are the Kuchera snow maps.

The NAMs have really good snow totals for the LSV & would be even better without the sleet that mixes in the southern tier.

It looks like a LSV crushing still ongoing at the end of its 48 hour 0z run with mixing in the southern tier at that time. Still several hours to go at the end of the run.

Here are the 850 & 700mb

Taking a closer look at the 18z Euro, we should be plenty cold at the Surface, 850’s & 700’s at the height of the storm at 18z Thursday.

Lol...I’m sure that you are above normal snow for the year up there as well! Don’t worry, you will make up for it in April up there!

Great 18z Euro run. This is turning into another long duration event if it goes down like this! Snow from early Thursday morning that continues at least lightly until Friday afternoon.

Lol... don’t I wish...busy with work !

Absolutely great 18z GFS run... let’s lock this in!

Those afternoon gusts were brutal... @canderson was right!

The 18z GFS has a 18 to 24 hour event from Thursday morning to overnight into early Friday with light snow still ongoing.

We still need to get the snow on the ground... We all win if we get a Warning level snow!

For next Monday, The 12z Euro has a nice Advisory level event for us. The tracking train keeps rolling along this year!

I like your thinking!

Here is the latest Discussion & the Event snow maps from CTP as of this morning for the Thursday into Friday snow chance. ”The 1035 mb high pressure system responsible for fair weather on Wed will move northeastward into New England by Wed night, setting the stage for good cold air damming ahead of the next storm system. A shortwave trough originating in the southwestern US will round the base of a deep, longwave trough and provide broad vertical ascent to develop an East Coast cyclone Thu into early Fri. Models still differ on how the storm will impact central PA, particularly on how far north and west heavy precip will get. A blend of the guidance shows QPF ranging from 0.5 in the northwest to 0.75-1.00 in the southeast. Much of this looks to fall in the form of snow, given the aforementioned cold air damming. A west-east oriented band of fgen forcing showing up in some of the guidance suggests a northward propagating band of moderate to heavy snow is possible shortly after the onset of precip during the day Thu, but it is too early to say with confidence if this will happen. For now, went with a general 10:1 ratio of snow to QPF for most of the area, and a bit lower in the SE where the column is warmer and there is more potential for mixing. This translates to a general 5 to 8 inches inches of snow for a large swath of central PA, 3 to 6 inches in the NW where QPF is limited, and 3 to 6 inches in the SE where temps will be warmer. Most of the snow will fall between late Wed night and late Thu night.”

The 6z GFS & GFS Para continued to look great for the Thursday into Friday storm. The old GFS is mostly snow, except some mixing towards the end of the storm after a very good snow thump. The Para kept just above everyone snow for the duration of the storm. These are 10-1 maps.

The precious, somehow beloved by many, NAMs are coming onboard at 6z. This was a NAMing indeed! Here are the 12k & 3K (run ends at 60 hours) at 6z

Here are the 0z Euro 10-1 & Kuchera snow zoomed in maps for CTP.

The 0z Euro Op run was very nice with mostly snow for just about everyone, even at the height of the storm.

The 0z GFS, Para & GEFS continued to escalate the Thursday into Friday for many of us!