Blizzard of 93

Here is the 12z EPS low track clusters for the Tuesday storm. If this is right... the low will track well to our south and exit off of the DelMarVa.. I agree with CTP that anyone from the I-81 corridor on north & west is still in the game for more snow & sleet vs. freezing rain.

I agree, but the long range NAM... please...

There is absolutely no way the NAM is better than the Euro.... ever!

I don’t trust the 6 hour NAM....let alone the 84 hour....Remember the Wednesday 18z run that gave us 6 to 8 inches of snow that was beginning within a few hours? Most of the LSV ended up with 2 or 3 inches. The Euro is not quite what is used to be...but it is still the best around....by a long shot.

Here is that part of the CTP discussion: “Expect a tight gradient between the heavier snow amounts and areas with no snow, but some uncertainty exists in where this gradient will set-up. This could mean the difference between little to nothing or several inches of snow for areas between the I-80 and I-81 corridors, so we will keep an eye on model updates and the pattern in the gradient.“

Great post...this is very close, especially for the Harrisburg area.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 307 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 PAZ017-018-024>026-033>036-056>059-063-140815- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210214T1300Z/ Clearfield-Northern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Somerset- Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland- Including the cities of DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle 307 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Light freezing drizzle with patchy light snow and sleet. Ice accumulations of a light glaze, and snow and sleet accumulations of less than an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Bridges and elevated road surfaces will be most likely to have ice accretions.

Long range NAM....is like....never mind!

I especially like this part of Bob’s post. “Any run that shows the knife edge within a reasonable distance is a net positive. Who knows what we'll be looking at in a few short days. Real cold is nearby. Lots of precip is overhead. I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet.” This situation is too close to call until the storm is on our doorstep in terms of precip type.

Good post in the Mid Atlantic thread by the great @Bob Chill on the pattern this week: It's a long ways away and future changes will keep coming. Any run that shows the knife edge within a reasonable distance is a net positive. Who knows what we'll be looking at in a few short days. Real cold is nearby. Lots of precip is overhead. I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet. We've trended the wrong way a lot last few weeks. Now that it's ugly instead in the mid range, maybe... just maybe the trend works the other way. After what we've all experienced since mid/late Jan, I'm def not spiking any footballs before the short range starts agreeing... and even then....

Here are the 4 am Tuesday 925, 850 & 700 mb temps. Plenty of very cold air not too far away to tap into with the storm track staying to our south & east.

Here is a snapshot of 4am Tuesday with surface, 925, 850 & 700mb temps for 4am as well. This is very close to a better front end thump of snow for the Harrisburg and I-81 areas and north west from there. A small shift will make all of the difference. Here is the surface precip type map for 4am and the surface temps.

The 12z Euro did tick slightly southeast with the snow line compared to the 6z run for Tuesday. For example, at 6z Harrisburg had 1.4 inches of snow by the end of Tuesday and now at 12z, it had 2.2 of snow. It seems subtle, but still time to pull the 6 inches of snow from State College & Selinsgrove down to the Harrisburg area with the track depicted.

Here is the 12z Euro snow, sleet & freezing rain through Tuesday. Still 2 days to go to see where this trends. I still think from near I-81 on west could be in play for more snow & sleet. With the low track and all of the cold air available very nearby, this needs watched closely.

Here are the next few frames of the Euro. Precipitation type fight in CTP on Tuesday. A 50 to 75 mile swing either direction will make a major difference this storm.

One final thing from CTP for now... LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An active weather pattern will continue into the long-term, as Pennsylvania remains in the vicinity of baroclinic zone between an anomalous upper-level trough over the Plains states and a ridge off of the East Coast. Latest model guidance suggests that another period of light snow (possibly a light mix across the southeast) is in store for Monday, associated with jet streak over the St Lawrence Valley and associated fgen forcing over PA. The bigger concern comes Monday night into early Tuesday, however, with a wave of low pressure lifting out of the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture-laden system will ride northward along the spine of the Appalachians before transferring energy to the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Tues, and it should bring a swath of significant snow to some portion of central PA, with a wintry mix once again possible across the south. This system will exit the area later Tues, followed by a brief period of fair and seasonable weather for Wednesday as upper level ridging builds into the region. By late week, medium range guidance is indicating another significant area of low pressure will track northward from the Gulf Coast towards PA. Given that this storm is still 7 days away, it`s still a little early to pin down the exact track of the low and resulting ptypes.

More from CTP this morning SYNOPSIS... Quiet conditions expected into Saturday morning spotty light mixed precipitation is possible late Saturday through Saturday night. A pair of winter storms could bring significant snow and ice Monday- Tuesday and Thursday- Friday. Temperatures are forecast to remain below average into the second half of February.

I’m trusting the pros at CTP!

I’ll also ride this HWO train from CTP. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 449 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 PAZ024>028-033>036-050>053-056>059-063>066-141000- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 449 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Patchy light snow and sleet accumulation and possible spotty ice glaze is possible Saturday afternoon or evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A pair of winter storms could bring significant snow and ice Monday into Tuesday and Thursday into Friday.

I’m riding in the CTP point & click train. This is the current forecast for Harrisburg International Airport (MDT) for this week. Monday Night A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then snow and sleet. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Snow and sleet likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Wednesday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Snow. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Hopefully we are measuring snow & sleet and not ice accumulation!

I riding the Euro train that I posted above...not the Chattanooga one!

Hopefully things trend towards more snow or even sleet...anything but ice! @MAG5035 yesterday thought we had a chance to get more sleet & snow vs. freezing rain except for the southern tier. We still have 2 days to go before we see where the lines set up.

The 0z Euro still provides a moderate snowstorm for CTP & northern MD for Thursday with a storm that tracks to our south. This snow map is just for the Thursday period.

Here are the 6z Euro snow & ice map for Tuesday, It will not take much to move the ice or snow line in either direction with 2 days to go.