Blizzard of 93

The GFS on Tuesday takes the low from North Carolina to off of the coast of the DelMarVa. With all of the High pressure to the north & west that is supplying Arctic air, this should trend to a colder look with at least a very solid front end thump of snow & then mixing for some areas depending on the final track.

My bar for this event for MDT is 3.5 inches to get the seasonal total to 30 inches. This would get them to be within 2 inches of exceeding the climo seasonal average. Everything after this weekend through March would just be stats padding to see how much we can pile on!

The 0z GFS is not backing down for tonight’s event! Here are the 10-1 & Kuchera maps.

Harrisburg MDT measured 2 inches last Sunday.

For Saturday, The 18z Euro & GFS both had 1 to 3 inches of snow. The models have been trending to a more snowy look for Saturday pm in especially from near I-81 on west. These maps are just for the Saturday event.

Flake size already picking up. Car tops are covered.

Very light snow just started in Marysville!

CTP put this out this evening for tonight’s event.

Here’s the 18z Euro for tonight into tomorrow. 10 to 1 & Kuchera

The 18z GFS was really juiced up! Here are the 10 to 1 & Kuchera maps! These are only through tomorrow afternoon.

Great to see you posting here!

Welcome to the party!

Here is the HRRR extended 6z run through Thursday night,

The 6z GFS, RGEM & NAM each are juicing up the snow chance for the southern half of PA tonight through Friday afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 433 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 PAZ027-028-056-057-059-063>066-110015- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.210211T0200Z-210211T1300Z/ Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 433 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches, with the greatest amounts near and to the south of the Interstate 81 corridor. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Just to show the potential of this coming week...and just for fun at this point... Here are the Combined total snow Kuchera ratio maps on the 0z GFS & 0z Canadian that show the combined snow amounts for the events Thursday/Friday, the weekend & next Tuesday. Great potential!!! Lots of tracking!

Yes, wave #1 tomorrow night into Thursday morning looked good on most models tonight for a solid Advisory event for the southern half of PA. The next couple of events have also improved on the models tonight. The 0z GFS that I posted last page looked decent for Saturday night. Then it brought the good storm on Tuesday. More good news, the 0z Canadian agreed with the GFS for the Saturday night & Tuesday snowstorm chances for CTP.

CTP put this out tonight...

The 0z GFS then has a few more inches of snow this weekend. Then it has the storm for Tuesday that travels up from the south and off of the Mid Atlantic coast. This snow map is only for the Tuesday event.

The 0z GFS agreed with the RGEM & ICON for CTP snow by Friday afternoon. Again, most of this falls in wave 1 by Thursday for CTP.

The 0z ICON looks decent for wave 1 tomorrow night into Thursday. Here is the map through Friday afternoon. This is 10-1 map, Kuchera likely would add some to these totals.

The 0z RGEM looks good for 3 to 6 inches for the southern half of PA by Friday. Most of this falls with wave 1 tomorrow night into Thursday.

The 0z long extended HRRR looks good for CTP for the first wave tomorrow night into Thursday.

Then, next Tuesday, the 18z GFS has a low running up the coast which delivers Warning level snow to most of CTP. The snow map is Only for the Tuesday event. What a great week of tracking potential storms!

Then the 18z GFS had another mixed event this weekend that has been trending colder on various models.