Blizzard of 93

Here is the HRRR extended 6z run through Thursday night,

The 6z GFS, RGEM & NAM each are juicing up the snow chance for the southern half of PA tonight through Friday afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 433 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 PAZ027-028-056-057-059-063>066-110015- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.210211T0200Z-210211T1300Z/ Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 433 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches, with the greatest amounts near and to the south of the Interstate 81 corridor. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Just to show the potential of this coming week...and just for fun at this point... Here are the Combined total snow Kuchera ratio maps on the 0z GFS & 0z Canadian that show the combined snow amounts for the events Thursday/Friday, the weekend & next Tuesday. Great potential!!! Lots of tracking!

Yes, wave #1 tomorrow night into Thursday morning looked good on most models tonight for a solid Advisory event for the southern half of PA. The next couple of events have also improved on the models tonight. The 0z GFS that I posted last page looked decent for Saturday night. Then it brought the good storm on Tuesday. More good news, the 0z Canadian agreed with the GFS for the Saturday night & Tuesday snowstorm chances for CTP.

CTP put this out tonight...

The 0z GFS then has a few more inches of snow this weekend. Then it has the storm for Tuesday that travels up from the south and off of the Mid Atlantic coast. This snow map is only for the Tuesday event.

The 0z GFS agreed with the RGEM & ICON for CTP snow by Friday afternoon. Again, most of this falls in wave 1 by Thursday for CTP.

The 0z ICON looks decent for wave 1 tomorrow night into Thursday. Here is the map through Friday afternoon. This is 10-1 map, Kuchera likely would add some to these totals.

The 0z RGEM looks good for 3 to 6 inches for the southern half of PA by Friday. Most of this falls with wave 1 tomorrow night into Thursday.

The 0z long extended HRRR looks good for CTP for the first wave tomorrow night into Thursday.

Then, next Tuesday, the 18z GFS has a low running up the coast which delivers Warning level snow to most of CTP. The snow map is Only for the Tuesday event. What a great week of tracking potential storms!

Then the 18z GFS had another mixed event this weekend that has been trending colder on various models.

The 18z GFS brought 4 to 7 inches of snow to the southern third of PA by Friday afternoon at the end of both of the waves.

The 18z GFS Happy Hour run was impressive with all of the snow possibilities over the next week!

Those ensemble maps certainly do not say “nickel & dime” ...!!!

If we don’t jackpot, southern PA would still be in line for a solid 4 to 6 inches of snow. I could live with that this time!

The 0z EPS & 6z GEFS continued to produce impressive amounts over the next 15/16 days. If you don’t jackpot this week, there should be several opportunities on the way to cash in!

Just about every event has this year & historically this type of event will do so. The southern half of PA needs only a 50 to 75 mile bump north to get into the jackpot. Plus, with cold air infusing into the storm, we should get a a little bump with good ratios in PA.

Speaking of the next event Thursday & Friday. Not a bad spot to be in with the inevitable bump north that we should expect. Here are the 6z Euro, GFS & GEFS through Friday afternoon.

Less than 1 inch of snow fell here overnight, but it gave a nice refresher to the snow already on the ground.

I woke up this morning in Marysville to snow falling and all surfaces completely covered.

Here is the 0z GEFS through Friday afternoon. Ensemble maps are only available in 10-1 ratio, but this shows most of CTP south of I-80 is in a great spot at this time.

We are in a great spot... please see the maps I just posted...plus these things almost always bump a little north closer to game time.

Here are the 0z GFS snow maps 10-1 & Kuchera through Friday afternoon.