Blizzard of 93

Here is a snapshot of 4am Tuesday with surface, 925, 850 & 700mb temps for 4am as well. This is very close to a better front end thump of snow for the Harrisburg and I-81 areas and north west from there. A small shift will make all of the difference. Here is the surface precip type map for 4am and the surface temps.

The 12z Euro did tick slightly southeast with the snow line compared to the 6z run for Tuesday. For example, at 6z Harrisburg had 1.4 inches of snow by the end of Tuesday and now at 12z, it had 2.2 of snow. It seems subtle, but still time to pull the 6 inches of snow from State College & Selinsgrove down to the Harrisburg area with the track depicted.

Here is the 12z Euro snow, sleet & freezing rain through Tuesday. Still 2 days to go to see where this trends. I still think from near I-81 on west could be in play for more snow & sleet. With the low track and all of the cold air available very nearby, this needs watched closely.

Here are the next few frames of the Euro. Precipitation type fight in CTP on Tuesday. A 50 to 75 mile swing either direction will make a major difference this storm.

One final thing from CTP for now... LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An active weather pattern will continue into the long-term, as Pennsylvania remains in the vicinity of baroclinic zone between an anomalous upper-level trough over the Plains states and a ridge off of the East Coast. Latest model guidance suggests that another period of light snow (possibly a light mix across the southeast) is in store for Monday, associated with jet streak over the St Lawrence Valley and associated fgen forcing over PA. The bigger concern comes Monday night into early Tuesday, however, with a wave of low pressure lifting out of the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture-laden system will ride northward along the spine of the Appalachians before transferring energy to the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Tues, and it should bring a swath of significant snow to some portion of central PA, with a wintry mix once again possible across the south. This system will exit the area later Tues, followed by a brief period of fair and seasonable weather for Wednesday as upper level ridging builds into the region. By late week, medium range guidance is indicating another significant area of low pressure will track northward from the Gulf Coast towards PA. Given that this storm is still 7 days away, it`s still a little early to pin down the exact track of the low and resulting ptypes.

More from CTP this morning SYNOPSIS... Quiet conditions expected into Saturday morning spotty light mixed precipitation is possible late Saturday through Saturday night. A pair of winter storms could bring significant snow and ice Monday- Tuesday and Thursday- Friday. Temperatures are forecast to remain below average into the second half of February.

I’m trusting the pros at CTP!

I’ll also ride this HWO train from CTP. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 449 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 PAZ024>028-033>036-050>053-056>059-063>066-141000- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 449 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Patchy light snow and sleet accumulation and possible spotty ice glaze is possible Saturday afternoon or evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A pair of winter storms could bring significant snow and ice Monday into Tuesday and Thursday into Friday.

I’m riding in the CTP point & click train. This is the current forecast for Harrisburg International Airport (MDT) for this week. Monday Night A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then snow and sleet. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Snow and sleet likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Wednesday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Snow. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Hopefully we are measuring snow & sleet and not ice accumulation!

I riding the Euro train that I posted above...not the Chattanooga one!

Hopefully things trend towards more snow or even sleet...anything but ice! @MAG5035 yesterday thought we had a chance to get more sleet & snow vs. freezing rain except for the southern tier. We still have 2 days to go before we see where the lines set up.

The 0z Euro still provides a moderate snowstorm for CTP & northern MD for Thursday with a storm that tracks to our south. This snow map is just for the Thursday period.

Here are the 6z Euro snow & ice map for Tuesday, It will not take much to move the ice or snow line in either direction with 2 days to go.

The 6z Euro said the northwest half of PA will be shoveling on Tuesday while the southeast half will be ice skating.

This could be a memorable week of Winter. Monday/Tuesday front end snow to major ice followed by a potential significant snowstorm on Thursday.... Sign me up!

The 18z Euro for tomorrow came in with a slightly more snowy look for the PA turnpike area on north. Now there is the chance of a solid coating of snow according to this run.

Here is the snow, sleet & freezing rain from the 18z GFS.

The 18z GFS agreed with your preference for a colder solution. It keeps the low below us and tracks it towards the DelMarVa and then off of the coast. There is High pressure to our north and Arctic air waiting to press in from the west. If the low takes this track, and the cold air presses even slightly further south, all of CTP could be looking good for more snow. As it stands now verbatim on this run, the 6 inch snow line gets down to Altoona & Selinsgrove. The 3 inch line gets down to Harrisburg this run. A lot of sleet shows up in the I -81 to I-78 corridor, while the bulk of the freezing rain hits the southern tier. Still a few days to go, but Plenty of time for this to trend for the better or worse, but I like where things are heading at this time.

Tomorrow night into Sunday am has always been a light event, but we might get a light dusting of snow or sleet or a minor glaze of ice, which could still cause trouble on the untreated roads.

The 18z Euro Op came in colder for the Saturday night event and looks similar to the runs a couple of days ago that brought 1 to 3 inches of snow to a good chunk of CTP, with mixing confined to the southern tier.

Here is Tuesday 7am on the 18z GFS.

Yes, very nice snow thump on the 18z GFS! A good portion of CTP stays mostly snow, except for the southern tier, but by that point, a lot of snow is on the ground according to this run. Here is the snow map for the Tuesday storm,

Here is the 12z EPS snow map for the Tuesday storm window. I think we should get at least a decent front end thump of snow. The question will then be if we mix, & if so, for how much of the event.

12z EPS was indeed east of the Op for the Tuesday event & the Thursday possibility. For the Tuesday event, Here are the low track clusters showing the transfer to the coast by a large group of ensemble members. This could put CTP in a great spot for more snow than mix if the coastal takes over at the right location.