Poimen
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Everything posted by Poimen
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32/18 at Winston currently. Yeah...I think the WWA is a good call for the overnight. Should be some ice out there.
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Don't look now but the 18Z Goofy is cooking up some (possible) fun at day 10.
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Regardless if we get something in the medium range, the big positive in my mind is that we are starting this winter with some robust blocking. I think that’s a good signal for the winter as a whole.
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Block party, anyone?
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Check out Don Sutherland's winter forecast: Highlights include: 2002-03; 2009-10 analogs and 30-40" snowfall for RIC.
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It’s not even Thanksgiving and the cynics are out in full force.
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Yeah the FV3 continues to show a colder pattern for the east in the medium to long range compared to the OP GFS. This from the most recent 0Z run:
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I'm trying to contain my inner weanie... but it seems to me that this is about as good a chance to experience a "wall-to-wall" winter as we could ever reasonably hope for in this part of the world. I'm close to moving all my chips into the pot.
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34 with rain and wind. It’s quite windy in fact. -
You have to love this look as we head towards December:
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With respects to the Thursday system: I'm interested to see if it trends colder the closer we get to game time. Last year, every winter event trended colder in that way (in my neck of the woods at least), and I'd like to see if we get started on a similar path this year, even if it only means an hour or two more of frozen precip.
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As we near mid-November its time to really start paying attention to the longer range pattern. Don’t know if it will hold, but there is some indication that we get to a -AO around the first of December. If so, we could get this winter started on a good note.
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It’s always a week away ;)
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Rejoice and be glad for the clocks have changed and the models now arrive an hour earlier!
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It’s the Euro control run. I was just posting for fun.
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Book it!
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From Judah Cohen: CFS predicting big changes in the #PolarVortex (PV) between now and December with significant disrupting of the PV over time. If (and a really big if!) accurate this would favor a quick start to the winter season with multiple episodes of #cold and #snow.
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From Judah Cohen: CFS predicting big changes in the #PolarVortex (PV) between now and December with significant disrupting of the PV over time. If (and a really big if!) accurate this would favor a quick start to the winter season with multiple episodes of #cold and #snow.
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FWIW:Roger Smith mentioned in the Mid-Atlantic forum that he is favoring a dominate storm track through the TN Valley and lower Mid-Atlantic. He’s another seasonal guy who has demonstrated some skill in the past. We’ll see.
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It's Cohen's forecast via the National Science Foundation. He did say it was preliminary and would issue a final call in early November.
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A very warm winter forecast from NSF today, too, for the vast majority of the US. But that forecast seems heavily dependent on Siberian snow cover.
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What's the latest on the QBO? Are we expecting a -QBO winter and if so in the -10 to -15 range?
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The wind has definitely backed off here the past few minutes. Still gusty in the 30s probably but nothing like it was before.
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This is as good as it gets here. Haven’t seen this much wind since I left the OBX eight years ago.
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Real-Deal TS conditions here. These gusts must be above 50PMH...easily.
