Well...we are the south...
What I hate is that we are finally heading in the right direction as we approach March--I'd much rather have winter in winter than to go from a false spring back to winter. Anyway--if it can produce another winter event in March I'd gladly take that, too.
The overnight runs offered little hope for a return to winter in the SE. There's still some time, I suppose, but you can sense the window closing quickly.
If I understand the prognostications correctly, the pattern won't be ideal for SE/East coast until the second week of Feb and beyond, so I wouldn't get too amped about the Feb 2-3 event.
I welcome the one to two week break from continual model watching. If things go well in February great, if not, then it's been a fabulous winter anyway.
Someone said a few weeks ago that this winter would feature a storm that we would not see coming until 4-5 days out. This fits the bill, more or less. Hats off to whoever said that, if this in fact pans out.
Well... the 6Z NAVGEM has a similar solution at 120, showing a swath of modest precip over the Carolinas as the trough axis approaches. Interesting.
EDIT: more precip at 126 across central/eastern NC as the coastal low forms near the OBX.