Poimen
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Everything posted by Poimen
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GGEM is tracking close to the previous EURO..a shift for this model. I see a trend here...and it's a good one.
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ICON with a favorable track off the SE coast with snows for the Piedmont.
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The NAM finishes with an impressive 1041 mb HP over IL at hour 84. sub zero 850 temps well into SC and dew points into the teens in northern NC.
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at HR 63 on the NAM, HP over Iowa is 1040 MB. That's the strongest I've seen it modeled.
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FV 3 Kuchera through 0Z Mon.
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18Z FV 3 is a crush job for western NC. Much better track this run, farther from the coast. Clowns should be fun.
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Looking at the GFS, it seems as if the model is indicating dynamical cooling over the NC Piedmont at the onset...note how the 850 temps cool over central NC from west to east overnight Saturday/Sunday morning, forming a pocket of below zero temps cutoff from warmer temps to the north. Just something interesting to me.
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I thought so, too. But it matches with the Kuchera map from Pivotal.
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I'm not sure if this really matches the model, but I believe this is based on the Kuchera method, FWIW:
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Kuchera output on pivotal weather has ~20" around the Triad, FWIW.
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Here comes the backside blizzard!
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Here you go: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
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Dew points from the 84 HR NAM: Mid teens throughout VA and NW NC.
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With the Pineapple Express in tow!
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FWIW: The NAVGEM looks a lot like the EURO. SLP track across the FL Panhandle before making the turn NE and off the Carolina coast. Like the EURO, precip doesn't make it to NC until Sunday morning.
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It's track is faster/farther west than the others..hence the difference.
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12"-15" mean for all of the western Piedmont ain't nothing to sneeze at.
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GFS Kuchera: 21"-36" amounts for the NW Piedmont/Foothills/Mountains. Wow.
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The GFS soundings for the Triad area are pure snow soundings from the onset through mid-day Sunday, with surface temps falling into the upper twenties. By 18Z Sunday, it's a mixed bag sounding...maybe even plain rain, but by then plenty of snow has fallen.
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ICON finally brings down some snow over the Piedmont Sunday morning. It also never really gets the precip into VA (Through the daylight hours Sunday).
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The ICON is coming in really mild for Saturday...no snow to speak of. This with a southerly track, mind you. I'd like to see this model jump on board.
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I'd include the NW/N Piedmont, too.
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At this point, I feel fairly confident in a front-end snow for the favored climo areas of NC Saturday afternoon/night, yielding at least a few inches...beyond that confidence is low.
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Bear in mind that in years past, a reduction of at least 50 percent in the clown maps ends up closer to reality around here. But even with that, there is still a reasonable shot of a widespread 6-12" storm for some on this board (if things remain as they are). Those numbers also seem much more realistic and in line with past events.
