Poimen
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Everything posted by Poimen
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Last one for the night, the GGEM. Just about every model has between 10-14" in the northern Triad.
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The ICON:
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FV3 has lowered it's qpf some...but still pretty beefy. I'm guessing this is close 1.5" in the Triad, which is in line with other guidance, except the GFS.
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You know it's a good night when the worst model runs only give you 10".
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Without soundings it's hard to know what's going on. Maybe it's an issue with the program indicating sleet when it's actually a snow sounding? I mean it was showing sleet on the maps even over the mountains and we know that's not the case. It still has 8-11" in our neck of the woods.
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But then again...according to the PW site, the RGEM is a sleet storm for the mountains, too. Perhaps that answers my original question?
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Should the RGEM concern us? It's basically a sleet storm for even the Triad. I seem to recall that it has performed well in the past.
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It's supposed to be.
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Not to be out done is the 12K NAM:
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I noticed the SREF QPF mean at GSO was 2" at 21Z.
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It's at www.weathernerds.org (I just discovered it this week myself). It's a great free site.
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The NAMs brought the goods tonight. Gotta love the way the qpf is trending at this time. Here's the 3K Kuchera:
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18Z GFS below. I'm out until 0Z. My orphaned family is begging for my attention. lol. See y'all later.
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They looked about the same from what I could tell on the NCEP maps.
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FV3 is going to be just like previous runs Here's the total qpf from the 18Z run. Nearing 2" in the Triad this time:
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I just figured out that you can zoom in even closer on these www.weathernerds.org maps. Here's a super close-up of the counties in and around the Triad from the 3k NAM:
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Close up of 3k NAM Kuchera:
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It's a beaut, Clark!
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FV 3 Hours 42, 48, 54, 60:
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GFS Kuchera:
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12Z Canadian Kuchera output:
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This is a classic case of the CAD winning out--it helps us NC peeps achieve more snow/frozen precip, but also puts a dent in the overall qpf totals. I'll gladly take that trade, however.
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The FV3 is still relatively beefy with the qpf amounts, but tempered a bit perhaps from previous runs.
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I just click on the map in the zoomed-in mode on Pivotal. I'm able to click close to my location in eastern Forsyth. I will say that areas south of 85 in the Triad look to have more sleet than north of 85. It's close. Either way, should be a good storm for all of us int he area.
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Models are coming around to the idea of moistening the column earlier, resulting in higher snow totals. Soundings from the NAM were terrific for Forsyth county. We're squarely in line for a 12"-15" in storm here.
