Poimen
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Everything posted by Poimen
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SREF mean qpf is about 1.75" for GSO. Snow mean not all that impressive, but I'm thinking we might see a juicy NAM run upcoming in respects to qpf.
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you are correct. I just deleted it and started over.
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yeah...it's a great site. By the way...I goofed on that original post. Those are the wrong images. So I deleted and made a new post with the correct images.
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www.weatherners.org is the site I've been using for these Kuchera maps. Below is the 6Z FV 3 and the 0Z Canadian for comparison sake.
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The FV-3 is another whopper for western NC. The Kuchera map is insane again. Obviously, this model may have a problem with its qpf output, as it seems to be higher than others, though the EC/GGEM aren't far behind.
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It's on the RAH "Winter Weather" age under the probabilities tab.
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According to the NWS probabilities, roughly a 50% possibility of more than one foot in Forsyth.
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If my math is correct, that's roughly 1.5" qpf for NW NC, which is in line with other guidance overnight. Don, thanks for contributing to our forum!
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There is no doubt that ice will be a significant problem in these areas. However, northern Wake could see a good period of snow before transitioning to sleet/freezing rain.
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Forsyth county peeps: The EURO and NAM both drop 10-15" across our county. You can't ask for a better combo at this range in my opinion.
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The 6Z NAM has 10-13" totals in Forsyth county running over into extreme NW Guilford. But only 7" in GSO proper. The NAM is continuing to improve overall. It has upped total qpf to over 1.5" in this area.
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Give this a shot: The Triad is the Winston-Salem; Greensboro; High Point area.
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The Canadian is 2" qpf most of which is snow for the NW Piedmont.
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Verbatim, the NAM is a 6-7" snow for the Triad with about an inch of sleet on top.
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If the NAM can saturate the column by 6Z, it will make a world of difference in the snow totals. It took a good step in that direction tonight.
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And just like that it's a sleet sounding by 10 am.
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12Z sounding for the Triad:
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The NAM reaches full saturation on the sounding in the Triad by 9Z Sunday, a full three hours earlier. Its an all snow sounding.
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The NAM is really aggressive with the virga on Saturday. Seems earlier than before...maybe it will help moisten the column earlier.
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Don't know if it will matter, but at hour 30 the surface low is well north of previous runs in E TX. Edit: it adjusts south in the next frames.
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With the SREF mean at GSO, about half next to nothing. Several were up in the 8-20" range, but the mean was skewed low because of the others.
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My general rule on clown maps is a 50% reduction, which in this case yields a 10-15” event. That seems plausible.
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This is almost comical. Close in:
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GFS Kuchera map is 12-16" in the Triad.
