Poimen
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Everything posted by Poimen
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The FV3 is insane. It also has significant snows on the backside through late Monday.
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One disturbing thing is that the GFS soundings are consistently showing less than full saturation in the snow growth region early Sunday morning, which coincides with the heaviest precip and coldest portion of the storm through the column. I'm not sure what to make of that, but I'd like to see full saturation up there.
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The 6Z Canadian is a snow beast for the I40-85 corridor from Asheville through the Triad. It looks like it has relatively narrow corridor of mixed frozen precip roughly from north of Charlotte to south of the Triad and then toward the Triangle. It seems that all of the guidance is converging on the arrival of precip in the NC piedmont to the pre-dawn hours Sunday, with the exception of the NAM.
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It's Kuchera, so I've been told.
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FV-3 through 0Z Monday.
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Looking at the FV 3 on the NCEP site and it looks like another big hit for much of central/western NC well into Mon., too.
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Canadian Kuchera:
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No...but it finally got a clue on the cold/snow.
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who would have ever thought that people in this sub forum would be flipping out for having their 24" clown maps downsized to 15"???
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Based on the crude black and white maps, it looks like the Canadian is finally joining the party, too.
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The 850s cool as the precip/lift moves in from the SW. All the models have been showing this. The atmosphere is literally cooling from the top down. Its impressive. I don't know that I've ever seen this modeled before.
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NAM is now running on TT...BTW.
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(5 Dec 2018): Due to dataflow issues from NCEP, data may be delayed for some American models (NAM, GFS, etc.) this evenin
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I took a quick glance at the FV 3 on the NCEP site and it looked cold for the NC Piedmont for the duration of the storm, plus it looked like it had the back side deform band on Monday too.
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RAH shut it down after it dropped more than 1-2" in the Triad.
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GGEM is kinda on its own. The ICON has a similar look to the others, just too warm.
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Reeling in these storms in the south is never an easy deal. We just need to be patient, and refuse to freak out over every small model oscillation. Keep in mind that the overall big-picture has remained remarkably steady on the models for several days. Hopefully we'll be preparing for glory come this time Friday.
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FV 3 Kuchera...not as robust as the GFS but still a good storm (thank you, captain obvious!)
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The 12Z GEFS snow mean looks virtually identical to previous runs to me. 10-15" on the means from I 85 west in NC.
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The UKMET tracks low south along the Gulf coast and then fairly far offshore the SE coast thereafter.
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The FV 3 is handing off to the coastal low at hour 96. It's a hybrid Miller A/B. I bet you there's a low off the SC coast on the next frame.
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The Canadian is phasing the northern stream wave into the southern stream wave early--causing a more northward motion of the surface low and warm air overwhelming the CAD. The GFS has no such phasing so early.
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A close up view of the GFS with Kuchera method:
