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The 4 Seasons

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Everything posted by The 4 Seasons

  1. The 4 Seasons
    uh-oh kiss of death for CorEy Think this plays out as a slightly tamer 12/29/12, do like that as an analog. I got a lot ridin on this storm, im the thread starter
  2. The 4 Seasons
    I think we're looking at a solid high end adv/ low end warning event spread across much of CT and SNE. 4-8" for our area i think is the best call right now. We're a little lower than NWS but higher than a lot of people getting spooked and cutting back.
  3. The 4 Seasons
    HRGEM bumped NW as well with a nice bump up in qpf across the area.
  4. The 4 Seasons
    no pun intended
  5. The 4 Seasons
    Our first and hopefully only call for the super bowl storm. If we see a continued trend this evening and tonight we'll adjust accordingly. Expecting 4-6" for most with the higher end of the range in E and SE CT. 2-4" N & W of 84.
  6. The 4 Seasons
    Have a map out soon
  7. The 4 Seasons
    It's weird cuz the 14KM GRAF has like 1/3 of those amounts...12Z did bump up though but 00Z/06Z runs had 2-4 for most of NE, 12Z run actually JPs you with 8-10
  8. The 4 Seasons
    good to see you glass half full
  9. The 4 Seasons
    itll probably be converted to an advisory, were going 2-4 there.
  10. The 4 Seasons
    Last 9 runs of the GFS. Ever so slight tick of improvment qpf-wise anyways...
  11. The 4 Seasons
    theres my 8.5
  12. The 4 Seasons
    12Z GFS looks like noise more or less to me No help..
  13. The 4 Seasons
    Decided to check CIPS for sh**s & giggles... and 12/29/12 storm just happens to be the #1 analog for the 12Z NAM run, thats funny
  14. The 4 Seasons
    ICON isnt THAT bad...still throws >.5 back through most of CT RI and SE MA. Would argue for low end warning amounts still...not as good as it was 6Z and definitely ticked SE a bit. RGEM on the other hand...pretty paltry looks the HRRR is right as Coastal said.
  15. The 4 Seasons
    Interesting how each cycle one model goes one way and one another way. 6Z RGEM looks like the 12Z NAM and vise versa. Frustrating..
  16. The 4 Seasons
    I have that kind of memory as well with snow storms, probably not to that extent but i can remember every single event we got from 2000-present, what the models were doing, the forecasts, its pretty sick. 12/29 was a great system. Over peformed, models beefed up every run leading up to the event. Half daytime storm half during the evening. Most of CT got 5-10 but the best was in the east. I got 8.5"
  17. The 4 Seasons
    im down to like 3 LOL. Death valley
  18. The 4 Seasons
    H5 looks SIGNIFICANTLY better at 30/33HR.
  19. The 4 Seasons
    Latest RPM @weathafella Seems to resemble a little better look at reality for what the outcome will be than that last zonked run. 4-8" across much of the state.
  20. The 4 Seasons
    The NAM has been quite bi-polar over the last 8-cycles. Back and forth we go.
  21. The 4 Seasons
    Even with the SE 6Z NAM with very paltry qpf outcome 600-800 avgd F-GEN would put some good banding into CT and E MA, NW of the best fronto. Those qpf amounts dont really match whats going on with mid levels on the NAM. We're waiting for the 12Z cycle to come out then going to put out a map but leaning toward a 4-8 or possibly 6-10 type event for most of CT.
  22. The 4 Seasons
    Its a tick SE but doesnt look like anything major. Hopefully just an off-hour blip. Would like to see some consensus with 12Z runs today.
  23. The 4 Seasons
    HRDPS also NW, no surprise
  24. The 4 Seasons
    Last RPM Run for @weathafella
  25. The 4 Seasons
    6z GEM also came back NW/stronger. Wish the GFS16 didn't go down again but what can ya do
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