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The 4 Seasons

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  1. The 4 Seasons
    Flurries but im getting smoked aloft!
  2. The 4 Seasons
    Flurries for the past 45 minutes. 31F
  3. The 4 Seasons
    Last minute adjustment to the map before the snow begins. Shaved the top end of the range down to 6" but still highlighted local amounts up to 8" in far eastern and southeastern CT. Moved the line down about 10 miles and kept the ranges the same for the most part. Think most of CT ends up with around 4" +/-. Lower end of that range is really for far NW CT.
  4. The 4 Seasons
    Yeah 12Z NAM and 3K NAM did look nice for CT. i approve!
  5. The 4 Seasons
    Radar update 30F OVC Ill be posting an updated map on the main thread, our final call this morning
  6. The 4 Seasons
    Not that it should come as any surprise with the RGEM/HRGEM bumping up, but the 18Z GEM did as well...
  7. The 4 Seasons
    Done
  8. The 4 Seasons
    Latest obs and radar... 32F
  9. The 4 Seasons
    how much did TAN get last week
  10. The 4 Seasons
    uh-oh kiss of death for CorEy Think this plays out as a slightly tamer 12/29/12, do like that as an analog. I got a lot ridin on this storm, im the thread starter
  11. The 4 Seasons
    I think we're looking at a solid high end adv/ low end warning event spread across much of CT and SNE. 4-8" for our area i think is the best call right now. We're a little lower than NWS but higher than a lot of people getting spooked and cutting back.
  12. The 4 Seasons
    HRGEM bumped NW as well with a nice bump up in qpf across the area.
  13. The 4 Seasons
    no pun intended
  14. The 4 Seasons
    Our first and hopefully only call for the super bowl storm. If we see a continued trend this evening and tonight we'll adjust accordingly. Expecting 4-6" for most with the higher end of the range in E and SE CT. 2-4" N & W of 84.
  15. The 4 Seasons
    Have a map out soon
  16. The 4 Seasons
    It's weird cuz the 14KM GRAF has like 1/3 of those amounts...12Z did bump up though but 00Z/06Z runs had 2-4 for most of NE, 12Z run actually JPs you with 8-10
  17. The 4 Seasons
    good to see you glass half full
  18. The 4 Seasons
    itll probably be converted to an advisory, were going 2-4 there.
  19. The 4 Seasons
    Last 9 runs of the GFS. Ever so slight tick of improvment qpf-wise anyways...
  20. The 4 Seasons
    theres my 8.5
  21. The 4 Seasons
    12Z GFS looks like noise more or less to me No help..
  22. The 4 Seasons
    Decided to check CIPS for sh**s & giggles... and 12/29/12 storm just happens to be the #1 analog for the 12Z NAM run, thats funny
  23. The 4 Seasons
    ICON isnt THAT bad...still throws >.5 back through most of CT RI and SE MA. Would argue for low end warning amounts still...not as good as it was 6Z and definitely ticked SE a bit. RGEM on the other hand...pretty paltry looks the HRRR is right as Coastal said.
  24. The 4 Seasons
    Interesting how each cycle one model goes one way and one another way. 6Z RGEM looks like the 12Z NAM and vise versa. Frustrating..
  25. The 4 Seasons
    I have that kind of memory as well with snow storms, probably not to that extent but i can remember every single event we got from 2000-present, what the models were doing, the forecasts, its pretty sick. 12/29 was a great system. Over peformed, models beefed up every run leading up to the event. Half daytime storm half during the evening. Most of CT got 5-10 but the best was in the east. I got 8.5"
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