CCHurricane

Last night’s 00Z NAM from the top rope! A winter of positive busts, could you imagine?

Thanks, checked but didn't see that on the forum page.

Some nice snowfall here in Boston down to Weymouth. Is everyone just completely discounting the 12z NAM and this afternoon/evening threat?

Would be quite the shift just 18 hours out.

00z NAM turning back the clock a few days to show a nice moderate event tomorrow evening, with a Cape Cod jackpot if it can stay cold enough. Likely cut these numbers by 25-50%…but would be a beautiful and COLD weekend.

Here in Boston we are currently tracking for our "coldest" December since 2017. Zoom out a bit further however, and it just goes to show how the broader shift in climate is moving the goalposts as to what is perceived as being "cold". 2000-2010: 6 of 10 years @ 35 degrees or colder 2010-2024: 2 of 14 years @ 35 degrees or colder

All things equal, 12Z EURO also showing southern FL landfall, albeit in a much better location and with a weaker system. Southern FL is mostly Wildlife Area vs. property development further North, yet this thing will be ripping from west to east in terms of forward momentum.

12z GFS not backing down. Landfall as CAT 3 just south of Fort Meyers, with it traversing the Florida peninsula in less than 6 hours.

00z GFS coming in with a beast...splitting the uprights between Western Cuba and Cancun.

awesome stuff, thanks for the confirm! Hopefully a sign of winter to come...

Mount Mansfield Snow Stake reporting 12 inches of snow? That can't be correct...is it? Would be an a record high for this early in the year, dating back to 1954.

Looks like a few +100mph gusts may have caused issues.

St Pete new high gust to 91mph @ 10:15PM. Did we lose the Sarasota Airport station? Looks like updates have ceased. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSRQ&hours=72

Believe there’s some nuance to this data based on this gauge location. Looks to be exposed to a north wind. The three other Tampa Bay gauges all are running many feet BELOW normal, as the ocean has evacuated towards Tampa Bay’s mouth.

Goalposts narrowing between Treasure Island & Longboat Key. Regardless of Milton's exact landfall location, impacts will be devastating, yet on a relative basis a St. Pete Beach landfall would be close to a worst case scenario...

00z Hurricane Models at or just prior to landfall. Not nearly as much weakening as was previously modeled. HAFS-A/B take an E/ENE track from these points of reference. HWRF and HMON continue to put St. Pete (and the mouth of the Tampa Bay waterway) in the bullseye.

A narrowing of spread on the 00Z GEFS. A few members still north of Tampa, with a Venice outcome looking less likely. Goal posts look to be focusing around the Bradenton cluster.

00Z GFS looks a bit quicker in terms of gaining latitude, yet doesn't look to translate to a further north landfall. Another Bradenton Beach landfall. 00Z ICON brought Tampa landfall back into play.

18Z GFS shifted slightly north, bringing a Tampa Bay mouth landfall back in to the picture.

potentially more damaging than the pressure, would be the HAFS-A / HAFS-B / HWRF track, which continue to be on the northern side of the model suite. A Clearwater / Treasure Island vs. Bradenton landfall will make a significant difference those within the Tampa Bay waterways.

Will be interesting to see if Milton follows the same model trends that Helene did. For Helene, I believe the hurricane models consistently showed a further west landfall than the Operational ones, with the NHC stubbornly sticking by the more west track (despite Helene being outside the cone of uncertainty as it approached landfall). Wonder if we’ll see the same Hurricane Model bias, which is somewhat already beginning to show, with Clearwater / St. Pete still in play vs. the Operational shift to the south.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032137.shtml?gm_track#contents Check the "Track" option and zoom in

While it's happened before, historically its very infrequent for the Tampa Bay area. Looks like the last major hurricane (> Cat 3) to impact the Tampa region, with a west to east or southwest to northeast track, was back in 1921.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036 Approx Buoy Location in YELLOW