CCHurricane

A narrowing of spread on the 00Z GEFS. A few members still north of Tampa, with a Venice outcome looking less likely. Goal posts look to be focusing around the Bradenton cluster.

00Z GFS looks a bit quicker in terms of gaining latitude, yet doesn't look to translate to a further north landfall. Another Bradenton Beach landfall. 00Z ICON brought Tampa landfall back into play.

18Z GFS shifted slightly north, bringing a Tampa Bay mouth landfall back in to the picture.

potentially more damaging than the pressure, would be the HAFS-A / HAFS-B / HWRF track, which continue to be on the northern side of the model suite. A Clearwater / Treasure Island vs. Bradenton landfall will make a significant difference those within the Tampa Bay waterways.

Will be interesting to see if Milton follows the same model trends that Helene did. For Helene, I believe the hurricane models consistently showed a further west landfall than the Operational ones, with the NHC stubbornly sticking by the more west track (despite Helene being outside the cone of uncertainty as it approached landfall). Wonder if we’ll see the same Hurricane Model bias, which is somewhat already beginning to show, with Clearwater / St. Pete still in play vs. the Operational shift to the south.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032137.shtml?gm_track#contents Check the "Track" option and zoom in

While it's happened before, historically its very infrequent for the Tampa Bay area. Looks like the last major hurricane (> Cat 3) to impact the Tampa region, with a west to east or southwest to northeast track, was back in 1921.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036 Approx Buoy Location in YELLOW

Using the Mansfield Snow Stake (Stowe,VT) as a proxy...last three years. 2021-2022 was a challenging year throughout 2022-2023 struggled for most of the winter, yet rallied with some late season (albeit short lived) magic 2023-204 followed a similar path, pockets of decent storms followed by snowmelt below average, with March delivering a short lived season ending snowfall bump.

Thank you, will explore and get used to the UI.

Question for the group here; while the xmACIS2 database is great at visualizing historical info across basic variables (temp, snowfall, precip), is anyone aware of a resource that includes additional data such as dewpoints, humidity levels, etc?

Road tripped from Boston up just south of Jackson, ME. Totality is a whole other ballgame. Kudos to my buddy’s Samsung Galaxy, wildly good camera setup for a phone!

Yup, that information is plotted with a +1 day lag.

Looks like Mt. Mansfield COOP station stopped reporting data to NWS database in 2017, but the prior 20-year average was around 20 inches in the month of April. Judging by the Mansfield Snow Stake monitoring (at elevation), this is just the amount of snow to fend off the melt season snowpack cliff...

Did they? Looks to me like the 18z GEFS moved pretty meaningfully inland / warmer for SNE.

This is one of the potential downsides with the proliferation of passes sold by Ikon / Epic. Late season, I can assure you the mountains know their mix of clientele. With that mix likely skewing to passholders vs. lift-ticket purchases, it's a massive conflict when it comes to the right customer decision vs. right corporate decision. Throw in the fact that many mountains have already sent home their out-of-country employees, and they have even less ability to run at full capacity.

right there with you...a cruel game.

40" in 6 hours, now that would be something...

Widespread +30" over the past week, with the 06z GFS hinting at another +30" before it's all said and done. We can hope!

Particularly with the ski/mountain business model evolving to emphasize food & beverage purchases on a day when the mountain should be packed. Throughout the day the Governor Lodge had plenty of space inside and felt like a decent Thursday/Friday, rather than jam packed Sunday.

A lot of unhappy people on what should have been the best day of the year. Silver lining was the lack of lines at Governor Lodge since no one could park in the main lot! Absurd they don't have a digital sign down near main street indicating the parking situation at each of their lots.

Deep winter feel at Loon on Saturday / Sunday with free refills followed by a bluebird day of soft turns. Hard to not have fun, even with the comedy of errors by management, impacting morning enjoyment. As of 7AM on Sunday Loon's main lodge parking (which is the majority of their parking), had yet to be plowed. With snow wrapping up prior to midnight the night before, was shocked to see how poorly snow removal was handled. Perhaps due to lack of resources, or maybe the Ikon / Boyne Special!

Just about wrapped up here in Lincoln, NH. A little bummed the heavy banding that the HRRR and NAM predicted would swing through, never made its way up here, but I have nothing to complain about!

Quite the day here at Loon. Plenty of soft and fun bumps today, tomorrow should bring the best groomers of the season. Difficulty to measure while enjoying the day, but easily over a foot.