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CCHurricane

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Everything posted by CCHurricane

  1. CCHurricane
    Are we concerned with the 12z GFS? Significant move east both on LP position and QPF...
  2. CCHurricane
    TBlizz will be disappointed somehow
  3. CCHurricane
    00z OP-EURO showing the same +10% QPF bump
  4. CCHurricane
    +10% juice relative to 18z AI-EURO, essentially back to 12z output.
  5. CCHurricane
    7AM-8AM
  6. CCHurricane
    seeing widespread 3-4"/hour rates with that banding...
  7. CCHurricane
    Does anyone know how to get a regional view of this MAP, vs. the zoomed out national perspective? https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/ Know there is an interactive map here, but would prefer it without the satellite / topography map background, and it appears that the above has a smoothing element applied which is preferred. https://www.weather.gov/crh/snowfall
  8. CCHurricane
    00z EURO-OP with a quasi rug pull for western areas…
  9. CCHurricane
    00z EURO-AI taking a minor step back. Split the difference between the 18z and 12z.
  10. CCHurricane
    Laugh out loud funny...
  11. CCHurricane
    incorrect output...18z
  12. CCHurricane
    Cape isn't mixing with those thermals. Thing bombs out and 925 / 850 temps are actually colder despite a closer track.
  13. CCHurricane
    Put it in the Louvre
  14. CCHurricane
    this has to be Euro-AI, right? And 10:1 or Kuch?
  15. CCHurricane
    Would have to imagine abnormally low ocean temps immediately around Cape Cod (< 35° if buoys are to be trusted), will assist with precip type remaining snow throughout. We shall see.
  16. CCHurricane
    I get the mental gymnastics of always expecting the worst, so you can never be disappointed, but isn’t this absolutely exhausting? Even when you do very well there’s always a “could have been better”. Just sit back and enjoy the ride!
  17. CCHurricane
    Think we’d all be well served if the model providers went back to 00z/12z. Too many model runs, hard to keep track of how each subset is performing from storm to storm, and almost no down time.
  18. CCHurricane
    For better or worse, the majority of users only want the big storm and max accumulations for their back yard (fellow board members be damned). Unfortunately few have the ability to set aside biases and ego, and look beyond that primary objective and simply enjoy the track and the ups and downs that come with the model mayhem. Saw it with the last storm, despite folks getting in the max +75% of outcomes, there was still disappointment pre/post storm.
  19. CCHurricane
    00z runs will be TENSE...
  20. CCHurricane
    It did, not all the way but a huge shift.
  21. CCHurricane
    Uh-Oh
  22. CCHurricane
    While the threat remained offshore, the EURO did have a 300 mile LP shift west between 84-96 hours out on the last coastal threat... Am I grasping at straws? Yes. USA USA USA (GFS)!
  23. CCHurricane
    EURO-AI shifting east to Operational cluster (sans GFS).
  24. CCHurricane
    FWIW: while still VERY far away from GFS solution, UKMET 12z vs. 00z changed upper level look quite a bit. Having said that, end result could still be the same with as we've seen time and time again this winter re: vort messing with track well off the coast...
  25. CCHurricane
    GEFS looks to be doubling down on OP run.
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