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CCHurricane

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Everything posted by CCHurricane

  1. CCHurricane
    this has to be Euro-AI, right? And 10:1 or Kuch?
  2. CCHurricane
    Would have to imagine abnormally low ocean temps immediately around Cape Cod (< 35° if buoys are to be trusted), will assist with precip type remaining snow throughout. We shall see.
  3. CCHurricane
    I get the mental gymnastics of always expecting the worst, so you can never be disappointed, but isn’t this absolutely exhausting? Even when you do very well there’s always a “could have been better”. Just sit back and enjoy the ride!
  4. CCHurricane
    Think we’d all be well served if the model providers went back to 00z/12z. Too many model runs, hard to keep track of how each subset is performing from storm to storm, and almost no down time.
  5. CCHurricane
    For better or worse, the majority of users only want the big storm and max accumulations for their back yard (fellow board members be damned). Unfortunately few have the ability to set aside biases and ego, and look beyond that primary objective and simply enjoy the track and the ups and downs that come with the model mayhem. Saw it with the last storm, despite folks getting in the max +75% of outcomes, there was still disappointment pre/post storm.
  6. CCHurricane
    00z runs will be TENSE...
  7. CCHurricane
    It did, not all the way but a huge shift.
  8. CCHurricane
    Uh-Oh
  9. CCHurricane
    While the threat remained offshore, the EURO did have a 300 mile LP shift west between 84-96 hours out on the last coastal threat... Am I grasping at straws? Yes. USA USA USA (GFS)!
  10. CCHurricane
    EURO-AI shifting east to Operational cluster (sans GFS).
  11. CCHurricane
    FWIW: while still VERY far away from GFS solution, UKMET 12z vs. 00z changed upper level look quite a bit. Having said that, end result could still be the same with as we've seen time and time again this winter re: vort messing with track well off the coast...
  12. CCHurricane
    GEFS looks to be doubling down on OP run.
  13. CCHurricane
    CMC going the way of the EURO. Not looking good for the GFS
  14. CCHurricane
    Confirmation bias here we come. 18z ICON with the big bump NW for SE New England.
  15. CCHurricane
    It won’t take much to move it another 50 miles…
  16. CCHurricane
    Nuke for the Cape...widespread 8-12 for most of SE New England.
  17. CCHurricane
    Likely the last flood of the pond this winter here on Cape Cod. What a stretch of cold…snowstorm from 3 weeks ago that dropped 15” still very much OTG. Since January 24th (22 days): 19 days with high temps below 33°F 18 nights with lows below 20°F 9 nights with lows below 10°F
  18. CCHurricane
  19. CCHurricane
    In over +100 years (since 1918), Boston is looking to make a run at the longest stretch (19-days) where day-time highs failed to break above 34°F (currently at 16). Impressive stuff to not have a few days pop into the 40's, while also considering the potentially warm-biased Logan readings vs. history.
  20. CCHurricane
    So just a tad more than 1 inch. Gotta stay positive! Results to the north boded well for you.
  21. CCHurricane
    Looks light on Cape, have +30" WTD in Barnstable
  22. CCHurricane
    I fundamentally do not understand coming to a conclusion based on a 360-hour EPS run. If this past storm was any indication, these sort of model "means" can be wildly inaccurate even at just 120 hours out. Modeled period of elevated activity =/ snowfall.
  23. CCHurricane
    We watch
  24. CCHurricane
    There’s gotta be some +4” reports coming from this south shore band when it’s all said and done, no?
  25. CCHurricane
    2-4 mm
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