paulythegun

GEFS, GEPS, EPS all have this trend at the end of the run (vs previous runs)

someone can correct me, but i think the problem is not just that it's warm here. it's the fear that our cold source (canada) would get scoured out as well. so you've got mild air here with anomalously warm air north of it.

this analog for next weekend shows what might have possibly been with some cold air

canada totally deflated. no pressure up there at all.

GEFS extended (which I assume just reverts to el nino analogs after two weeks out, but that's an uninformed cynical guess) looks good in early to mid february.

REMINDER: Snow on top of your car is INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS. Do not touch it or try to remove it!

Icon shifted a little south from the earlier run.

Virga Tonic

VirgaFest2024 over the mid-atlantic right now

my mistake - reposted below. looks more significant on teh real thing!

son of a gun, posted the wrong gif. here's that jet streak trend.

Look at the jet streak shifting south (6z nam vs 12z nam). Puts DC proper (and areas just north) closer to the left exit area.

Love the MOISTNESS trend at mid-levels. this is comparing the last couple nam 3k runs

00z GRAF

Get this to weatherpeens!

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE!!! "WE GOT GRAF'D!!"

18z RGEM is a little dryer (EDIT: it's tough to really tell with this map) but still lots of light snow for dc and points north. Philly jackput with the inverted trough. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Model grab bag. JMA total precip (looking very good!) 12z ARPEGE (JUICY!!!) ACCESS-G shows about 0.25 to 0.35 in liquid equivalent, tough to tell with this scale. And of course the UM(mmmmm) model is the driest. does UM have a dry bias? we'll see 557ww model...well...it doesn't have many good parameters other than 700mb RH and that looks north throughout the event, including at 00z on saturday. Though this is the 00z run of 557ww. so take it with a grain of salt until the 557ww computer processes the new 12z data. And last but not least is the RHMC model, which I assume stands for Ronald McDonald House Charities. Looks like widespread.....1 and 2 throughout the forum.

Hahaha this should be a running joke for now on

For me, the Jan 2000 surprise storm led to over 2 decades of radar hallucinations. Still, no regrets.

I was mourning the loss of the squall line tomorrow in my own bitter, bitter way. carry on all! I’ll keep my whining to the panic room. Squall lines are fun though!