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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    Don't worry! The extended GFS/ECMWF models still look like El Nino analogs like they have all winter! [emoji848][emoji848][emoji848]
  2. paulythegun
    24 hours later..................................
  3. paulythegun
  4. paulythegun
    12z GFS was a Panic Room CLASSIC. Just amazing stuff. I agree with others though that the takeaway should be largely positive here. We're seeing multiple strong waves ride under us with plenty of moisture.
  5. paulythegun
    This made me chuckle. wonderful!
  6. paulythegun
    The Insult Each Other Room
  7. paulythegun
    Long range looks really good. There's no reason to be posting in here. But if I WERE going to post, I'd say, "March looks like at least 3 HECS rain storms"
  8. paulythegun
    Not in the cemetery!
  9. paulythegun
  10. paulythegun
    Day 15-20 looks like a period of interest in terms of starting to track March snow puddles after the February precipitation drought.
  11. paulythegun
    Can somebody tell me the exact moment when the wave breaks? I'm very excited for the wave to break. Also, when does the snow pattern make landfall? Have we sampled it yet? What about 06z/18z? Do we need more balloons?
  12. paulythegun
    For Feb 6th, 72hr into the 12z Euro, seeing some good confluence.....over the bahamas
  13. paulythegun
    ECMWF keeps hope alive for the 5th/6th (I guess). Slower, a bit north. 00z Euro had these two features (circled) crash down and seemingly whisk whole thing out to sea. 12z euro doesn't' have them.
  14. paulythegun
    Yeah I've always had this (noob) question of whether a higher resolution model could "trick itself" by aggressively identifying noise (smaller features) and failing to smooth those out. But I guess that's just a convective feedback loop?
  15. paulythegun
    4 out of 20 members of CMC Ens have snow reaching here Feb. 5/6. Two have a liquid explosion. Therefore, 10% chance of a liquid explosion. That's how this works.
  16. paulythegun
    The last 5 runs (here it comes! rain bomb!)
  17. paulythegun
    For the 5th/6th, EPS has these three panels + 48 panels of nothing or almost nothing.
  18. paulythegun
    haha the euro smashes that thing to oblivion on Feb 5th. Smashes it back into the gulf of mexico from whence it came
  19. paulythegun
  20. paulythegun
    I wonder what the analogs are for this one
  21. paulythegun
    GFS Ext. Control AO collapses into negative infinity LMAO
  22. paulythegun
  23. paulythegun
    Yeah the Euro - as depicted - would probably be almost 12 hours of White Rain in the city, changing from a rain snow mix around 9pm then continuing into the morning with zero accumulation. Probably over 0.3" of QPF in and around the city with a bit more NW of the city where maybe rates overcome 34F at the surface. I'd take this as a best case! And I'd wager about 2" on my elevated (20 feet high) metal deck!
  24. paulythegun
    Yep looks great! One thing i'd like to see is the good look at the end of the ensembles. They keep kicking it a day forward.....but i'll be patient! Here's yesterday's 12z EPS: VS today 12z EPS: Looking forward to seeing the blue connect with the blue!!!
  25. paulythegun
    the people who complain about complaints about complainers in the complaining sub-forum are the worst!
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