paulythegun

All eps members agree on at least 0.5 in negative ao accumulation

Euro

There are many fine plumes...on both sides

FOLKS,,,, the 18z ARPEGE is LIT

worth noting that for areas 30+ miles SW of DC, a 1-2" of that is from Friday's weak system. As for DC - that's all on the backend of the weekend system.

too funny not to share

Good trend on ICON. Less amped. Stronger high extends without interruption

the "cold chasing" portion is basically an anafront, right? Had some nice jet entrance zone interaction during the March 5, 2015 event too. Sadly not seeing much of that in this one but i guess something to watch.

ECMWF holds onto the snow pack for the fall-line and areas NW through the arrival of Saturday's storm. One thing we don't get often in this area is snow on snow so it'll be interesting to see how that impacts the initial CAD front end event as well as the ultimate trajectory of the low. There have been quite a few studies on the southern edge of snow cover extent influencing the placement of the baroclinic zone: Here's one: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.688.9620&rep=rep1&type=pdf The extent to which models can deal with marginal snowpack is unknown to me. I do know that ECMWF currently has a bias toward holding on to snowpack too long...see here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Known+IFS+forecasting+issues

Just measured about 12" on GFS

Flakes flying by sideways like Phillip Rivers' throwing motion

Roads giving way like a chargers punt returner

It's been so long since I've seen snow...i'd forgotten that it was white. I thought it was purple with blue around the edges

Icon fringes the northern folks

Eps SLP mean basically the same during prime time (Sunday 06z) in 00z and 006z. Didn't see anything else major.

trying not to be too bantery, but this really gives you a picture. here's the vort, hour 64-140 moving from Oklahoma across North Carolina, as depicted on ICON/Euro/etc

Icon looking a bit less strung out/smushed at 12z. The end result isn't much better.

Vigorous southern slider pounds NC then moves off the coast before northern energy phases with it, trough turns negative, tracks north to the benchmark. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Starting to see some clustering Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

I saw some talk earlier about the Euro Control HECS. Here it is in ANSI:

ok i should probably be shot for this

How bout some Happy Hour NAM to lighten the mood? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

yeah i'm deeply ashamed of doing that. amateur hour. Anyway, here's the latest CRAS