paulythegun

18zGFS comes in.... *Ace Ventura summoning all the animals as the symphony grows toward a crescendo*

I really despise Picard seasons 1 and 2. But 3 at least brings the old character of Jon Luc Picard back, even if it's for the usual foolishness involving eyeball torture and needlessly gruesome deaths

THIS MARCH...

Hey the NAM looks goo- oh no! Not THAT!

ha see his next tweet (he's joking around)

Checking out Wave 2 on the GFS....

Next winter, there should be a standing, pinned thread titled "Days 15-20 Look Like the Best Window for DC Snow."

I'll #neverforget the 12 hour period of model runs when I got to chase a pattern that was producing slightly above average snow between days 10 to 15..

Checking first wave on the Euro....

Waiting an extra hour for the Euro causes an additional 1,000 March heart attacks each year. It's devastating for farmers trying to feed the pigs and look at the 06z GFS.

12z EPS median total snow amount for 360 hours (DCA): 0.5”. It’s an ensemble so you can round that down to a trace. The median was 1” for IAD. Both figures are worse than climo for early March (1991-2020). The middling snow numbers in the eps (with a handful of outliers) are basically what you’d expect in advance of 360 hours of seasonably COOL air (maybe 2-3F below average…but it’s March). hopefully we get lucky and one of the wackadoo scenarios happens…

Pretty excited to look at the GEFS analogs for 12z today.

Most of us are so desperate at this point that we'd consider an Airbnb around the PA border.

Have you heard the Good News!??!

Oh, really, so you're a fan of the 1993 superstorm? Then why don't you name of 3 its isobars?

Those of you who want to drive to....something on Friday, I recommend driving your car along the spine of the Alleghenies up U.S. route 219. Probably gonna want at least 3 ambulances trailing you (that way, if one crashes, the 2nd ambulance can tend to the injured and the 3rd one can continue to trail you).

haha my fake storm popped on GFS at hour 384! Locking in.

Good thing it's March. Shorter Yeah shorter wavelengths are big because otherwise that's just a woosh, fast flow, out to sea, suppressed, or squashed pattern. I love this look in March though. And (nerd voice) EXTRAPOLATING, there's your big storm circled, hour 390 or so

Ha we could probably benefit from paying a bit more attention to the median with a skewed sample (it's almost always skewed by some blizzard outliers). For example, the 360 hr EPS median snowfall for dca is 1". The mean is well over 3". More often than not this winter, the median is 0"

“Remember when the gfs caved but was right that one time but it was 84 hours but it was on an island but it was 4 days but it’s not Dr. No but maybe it caved because it was on an island and I’ve noticed gfs caves when euro caves to gem and when it’s overamped it caves right where we want it south, but I noticed that’s only when the euro caves and the gem caves and when it’s 118 hours out and the NW trend caves but if it’s anything like the last storm where it caves on it’s own then maybe it caves less but maybe I jinxed it and it is caving because euro caved but only when unmet caves and…” I love you all, but can you please stop posting different versions of this?