paulythegun

All or nothing here

Me: write a violent, unhinged rant aimed at Mother Nature. include death threats ChatGPT: You disgusting, vile creation! You think you can just come in here and take over, pushing us out and bringing forth your ridiculous fury at will? You control the elements and the seasons, you think you can just order us around like pathetic little ants? You must think yourself high and mighty, but let me assure you Mother Nature, you are simply a joke. You have no power here. You amuse yourself while taking away our most precious things. You dangle the sunshine in front of us and then take it away in a heartbeat. Do you get a thrill from watching us suffer? Well, Mother Nature, prepare for an ultimate reckoning from none other than me. I won't take this lying down. No more will I be subservient to you. I am coming for you with all the hatred I possess. I will make you to pay for all the lives you have claimed and all the suffering you have caused. All your constant playing games won't save you now. I will make sure you regret every single moment of messing with me and my people. Death to you, Mother Nature. Total annihilation of your powers and scheming ways are coming. Prepare to face the consequences of your actions. The end is near.

this is definitely has the feel of a Special Weather Statement criteria event. probably best to move your cars folks now out of the Special Weather Statement routes before they are towed.

Haha I'm definitely just now realizing that my weather model knowledge is extremely dated. In my head, NAM was just upgraded from 4k to 3k. So is the FV... whatever model the replacement for NAM?

Haha sure, but SREF has its uses. And they upgrade the resolution as they upgrade NAM. I find it mostly useful for QPF. it's not ever going to do well with marginal temps. And you can clearly see that in the snow plumes. They often look like a bell curve when there should be both a cluster of higher and lower solutions (reflecting banding placement and sharp cutoffs due to temp issues)

No help from the short term ensemble though...highest value for dca is 0.37" of snow

Some people say it was the CIA Speaking of which - McLean gets fringed:

Ice still in the picture though based on H5 EDIT: Probably should have made that WV snow strip stab him

And for those of us who also chase digital "snow", sleet is fantastic. Really piles up!

This should be a long lasting, sustained event. Really jammed up atlantic will slow the precip progression down to only 150mph

Is anyone tracking the 2 hour Flizzard and Cold Sprinkle Fest next weekend, as depicted on the Euro?

Since I babbled about it a few times on here, figured I'd follow up: almost nothing much fell in Davis, WV. We had some light sleet mixed with rain.. Fringed.

Here's the latest update from the Clownmap Weather Authority. 1,000,000 people affected!

This is mostly ice. Hour 84 GEFS probably....not particularly useful. Still. Some BIG TIME clownmap hits here.

Individual members on GEFS are kinda awesome (this almost doesn't seem real...), though I assume this is a ton of sleet being turned into fake digital snow:

Key points from the 12z Euro for DC: 1) Probabilities (my own): 50% chance of soul crushingly awful rain. 50% chance of the THREAT of horrific cold rain ruining all social plans and then missing us barely to the south. 2) Zero snow for the mountains or really anywhere outside of SW VA. 3) All hope lost. 4) Might as well jump. 5) Go ahead, jump.

You will never find a more wretched hive of warm air in February.

One annoying trend is isobars pushing further and further south from Quebec, squashing the vort after it slowly meanders toward a decent position to our SE. You see this monster amping up on the euro and it kinda falls half apart when it reaches out region. Then the progressive flow behind it shunts it out to sea. I've seen storms close off, go berserk, mature, and then fall apart on guidance all the time. Long range GFS is a fan of doing that. Usually occlusion is the end result. Particularly late winter. But I don't remember the last time I've seen it happen in real life to our region. Usually it's a new England thing. Maybe I just need more experience tracking closed off systems taking a southern track and then pushing into a warm air mass. This really does feel like a "first week of April" kind of thing. Am I wrong that this whole progression is kinda unique for February? Late Jan 2011 keeps popping on the analogs, and someone made the point the other day that usually we just ignore perfect track rain storms but I don't remember this situation being a common one..

18z GFS weaker, slower, further south. The column is BONE DRY sunday night at DCA. nothing even reaches the area. LOLL

JUST UPGRADED TO "LIMITED THREAT" for Davis, WV! Reminds me of when the Bluth Company was upgraded from "Don't Buy!!" to "Risky!"

Most of the amped up solutions deliver an absolute crush job to Canaan Valley - particularly the peaks. While some of the weaker ones have a sharp cutoff of the precip...lots of nasty ice. This forum is allegedly about WV as well, right? I bet a good number of us will be there this weekend (I will).