paulythegun

wow, even the SPIRE model is moving our way. 00z: 12z

reverse jinxed it

I remember these well! before I knew to look at the 500mb stuff (and just stared at surface pressure and precip depictions) these were insanely frustrating. precip would build near the gulf with a low approaching from what appears to be the right angle. then the precip would suddenly disappear at the mountains, leaving DC high and dry....before it EXPLODED back onto the scene when the low bombed off the NJ coast. to a snow weenie with no clue why precip goes where it goes, this is one of the most painful events to witness. please be kind to surface map watchers.

RE: January 16th:

uh oh!

great points all. i just wrote all those wobbles off as "different cows being hit by rain or snow" but now i remember that there are cities in the midwest

Next weekend's cutter has been well modeled for a while. GFS remarkably consistent. I wonder if it's just easier to model inland storm systems? No messy coastal transfer/redevelopment? Or if there's something else about this setup that's easier for models to resolve? I suppose this just doesn't seem very complex. Just a vort orbiting around a well defined trough.

They have maybe 0.5% more skill than throwing darts. Mostly printing out old El Niño analogs from what I’ve seen

This seems extreme

January is ROCKIN'!!!

38F and light sleet and rain at the base of dc’s mighty Mount Hamilton

The 925mb hole setting up over Roanoke

YES. radar hallucinations have started!

For those who didn't get what "convection over the MC" is (me until 60 seconds ago) here's a neat little study where i figured it out: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022MS003503 Summary: Large-scale convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) initiates over the Indian Ocean and propagates eastward across the Maritime Continent (MC). Over the MC, MJO events are generally weakened due to complex interactions between the large-scale MJO and the MC landmass.

10 to 1! and half of this is from "tomorrow" (!!!)

Really stinks for Virginia ski resorts if they can't get a nice clean snow to drizzle event. Seems reasonable. Not your focus, but the euro (and to a lesser extent, GFS) had some interaction with that trailing low that provided some hope for NYC/Boston.

ok this is just funny now.

CLASSIC surface level setup for an HECS on NAM. Got your three low pressure systems (triangle defense) chasing two weak highs off the continent

you beat me to this. whenever someone complains about a long range map, gotta up the ante with some CFS

Model trend momentum is accelerating toward some extreme snowmap colors Models were accelerating in another direction earlier today. But - as we all learned in meteorology class - model trend momentum is moving toward snow now.

So because I’m a hobbyist, my friends sometimes ask me about the outlook for snow, as they did tonight. I rely on the long range threads here to some extent to get a feel. Plus common sense, reading trusted voices on twitter, and my own access to ensembles. Tonight, when posed with the question about our snow chances, I told a story. I told them about how there’s this weather forum where people discuss the long range forecasts for signs of potential snowstorms. And i told them that for the last few years, they had to create a separate thread called “The Panic Room” where people who loved snow could go to have a meltdown without disrupting the discussion. They got a kick out of that.

Anybody know the history of this kind of west meandering cut-off low in late December? Feels extremely rare, but I don’t really know. I suppose we’ve had tons of big low pressure systems delivering warm temps in dc and blizzards in the Midwest around Christmas time. Remember Santabomb? But I can’t remember a cutoff low that drifted.

PANIC https://x.com/hotwxexpert/status/1740134509008281952