paulythegun

In case anyone still cares, the euro has trended EVEN WEAKER with the sw thursday.

Started reading this forum again today after DCA surpassed climo snow amounts (BARELY) on eps for 3 straight days. And I haven’t been around much, but I feel like there was more bullying of weenies in the past. mocking them helped create the space for a serious discussion of the upcoming storm threats by experts and hobbyists with smart questions. And it helped the weenies participate with good posts, because they feared being mocked. Anyway! Best not to overthink these things. Meta forum discussions suck. But this still is a smart forum, and a bit of heavy-handed moderation in the substantive topics might not hurt!

Get that bad euro taste out of your mouth, friends!

from last night's EPS, but worth it

love that people are getting excited about a snowmap that's right around climo

GEFS analog for day 12-14: cold/dry

Stop driving into the sky is my advice

Liking that west-based -NAO

My favorite thing about this model's panels is how the color scale makes things look way more potent. That's 3-4mm for the district. Unfortunately, the snow ratio is very low on this model - like less than 1 to 1", due to the metric system

Here's February 1958: Here's CFS February 2019 for reference

Snow puddles starting to get extreme in dc. A coating of puddle on wet surfaces, not to mention the roads, which are giving way to puddling UPDATE: I can confirm that the water in downtown dc has begun to move into organized pools that can be differentiated from each other. Classic puddle signature.

Puking drizzle in downtown dc. Frigid wet bulb of 34F. Accumulating on all surfaces

Folks,,, I’m here to tell you that in Davis, WV, in my cabin along the northwestern (up)slope of of some pathetic east coast mountain, it snows 90% of all winter hours including when the sky is almost 75% blue. All it takes is a cloud. A cloud makes snow, as long as it’s a tiny bit grey. It’s fantastic

hey uhhh can we talk about that hudson bay low and how awesome it's going to look on GOES?

WPC update on Mon/Tues: 1530 UTC Update... During days 6-7 (Mon-Tue), the most significant model differences continue with respect to the degree of phasing between northern/southern stream shortwave energy across the eastern U.S., and the implications for the track and timing of a potential low pressure system off the East Coast. The latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS showed very little in the way of phasing and thus a highly progressive system - a stark change from previous runs for the ECMWF in particular. The CMC, on the other hand, held onto a highly phased and amplified solution. A look at ensemble members does seem to suggest a solution at least somewhat less progressive than shown by the 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS, with perhaps even a few more members joining this idea over the past couple ensemble cycles. Thus, the WPC forecast is not near as progressive as the ECMWF/GFS, and resembles something closer to the ECENS/GEFS ensemble means, which comprised the majority of the forecast blend during days 6-7.

Not to get too far down that rabbit hole, but I suspect for most in this sub-forum, the love of snow (and strong feelings about it) are tied to early childhood when two things happened: (1) school was cancelled by it and (2) we had a blast outside in it. And on the flip side, when snow forecasts failed, we felt deep disappointment at having to go to school. For many of us, that's our lasting and formative memory of snow forecasts - both positive and negative. It all flows from that. So we have an emotional response. There are probably also some smaller factors as well. One is the way in which snow completely changes the landscape around our homes and communities - everything we consider familiar and mundane (because we see it day after day after day) is covered in white. And beyond those aesthetic changes, there are different sounds and smell different smells. A bustling city or suburb becomes calm and serene. And all of those things trigger your childhood memories and nostalgia.