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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    KMA stays very progressive, doesn't even give us much in the form of IVT snow. The PANGU-IFS model is a bit better, but not great. And 12z ARPEGE is about as bad as KMA.
  2. paulythegun
    it's a relatively mature mid-latitude low. vertically stacking a low like that tightens the precip field for a variety of reasons when compared to what we usually see (a coastal surface low with a trailing 500mb low and trough) we usually don't see that occur at our latitude. it's something we'd be more attuned to if we lived in the northeast though.
  3. paulythegun
    ha yep look at that warm air wrapping into it on the 850mb panel
  4. paulythegun
    i don't think i've ever seen the pink horizontal lines on the left almost touch the temp/dew point lines
  5. paulythegun
    The money shot:
  6. paulythegun
  7. paulythegun
    *borat voice* IT ABOUT TO MAKE LIQUID EXPLOSION!
  8. paulythegun
    Simple setup
  9. paulythegun
    For this, I recommend the Nutty Professor remake, along with the Klumps sequels
  10. paulythegun
    12z RFFS (pronounced Arfs!) model. Used 10 to 1 to distort the snow upward
  11. paulythegun
    Look at these two friends getting together at the last minute
  12. paulythegun
    This site is now offering WeatherNext 2 for free. It's not totally functional yet (you can only get MSLP, 6 hour precip, and 2m temps) but still worth keeping an eye on: https://aguacerowx.com/app
  13. paulythegun
    I don't think anyone posted this yet - the 12z ECMWF AI QPF map is kinda wild.....
  14. paulythegun
    And the system won't be occluded for another 2-3 days
  15. paulythegun
    Mid-Atlantic cold air when moisture finally approaches
  16. paulythegun
    All of the models are too warm with their surface temps for this weekend..and here's why: Their snow cover estimates are too aggressive with melting. They're assuming typical snow density and compaction. They can't handle the slow pace of north facing snowcrete melt-off. Please hit the hot dog emoji
  17. paulythegun
    There was a massive sewage spill about a month ago just NW of DC. One of the largest (unintentional) spills in U.S. history. But right now, all of that sewage is sitting frozen (or under ice) in the canal area. An amped system would finally flush it out into our waterways where it will settle and create algae blooms along with an enormous stench throughout the spring and summer. Lets get this sewage moving. Amp this thing up! Unleash the sewage blob!
  18. paulythegun
  19. paulythegun
    I just mistook water dripping off my roof for flurries. They should probably issue a Special Weather Statement on that
  20. paulythegun
    every storm for the rest of the winter
  21. paulythegun
    Sublimation is our friend
  22. paulythegun
    *sniffs glue* Here it comes!!!!
  23. paulythegun
    It's 4 degrees at a station near me north of Capitol Hill but Virginia's DCA station, which is the official station for the city of DC, is at 15F
  24. paulythegun
    15z SREF still with 4 members out of 27(?) with over 10" of snow for DCA. Max is 26.3". Good times. The SREF is definitely sniffing out the north trend that I'm imagining on the radar.
  25. paulythegun
    yeah....sadly.
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