paulythegun

GFS ingested the Baja Recon data. Instead of waiting an hour, it became impatient after about 15 minutes and ingested MORE Baja Recon Data. Amateur hour.

GFS was not informed about the slightly anomalously cold temps in a tiny area of the Pacific. Once it learns, it will Make Less Snow For Us* *Source: SCIENCE

Dumb Dumb NAM

SREF OUT!

It's really quite funny if you reread it.

Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM...

I've got a flat roof (with internal drainage) that I can't really access myself, though trying to get up there on a ladder would be kind of fun, in a very stupid way. A week+ of pressure from 10" of snow + ice seems bad! The resulting melt would almost certainly cause tons of pooled water trapped under the ice cap. Anybody in this region ever deal with this? I know you can get gouged if you wait until its an emergency to schedule snow removal. I'm just a dummy here and most of my roof knowledge comes from yesterday, on ChatGPT, so keep that in mind.

Nothing too close but the top analogs based on 12z GFS (MAYBE NOT REALITY?) included: February 11, 1986: https://www.upi.com/Archives/1986/02/11/The-second-winter-snowstorm-in-a-week-blanketed-the/4624508482000/ The infamous 2021 southern ice storm (February 10-15, 2021) that crippled Texas. The christmas slop snowstorm of 2002 (I believe that's baltimore's last "White" christmas): https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html

people in central virginia who live at 700mb are going to be boiled alive saturday night

spot on

Sampling the Baja Vort. Will have data by 00z tomorrow

all the ingredients are in place. Ample moisture from the southern stream, exploding tree risk to our northwest

i deleted it almost immediately, you're quick!

This wasted about 50,000 gallons of water in a datacenter in the southwest.... EVAPORATED WATER THAT WILL FUEL OUR COMING SNOWSTORM!!!

the part i forgot: The trajectory of the WAA runs heavily north of the city, forming a finger-like stream of precip that stays north while the city stays dry for 12 hours

1) Dry air limits WAA thump 2) Sleet mixes in almost immediately in the city 3) After a few hours of heavy sleet, we transition to a sort of purgatory dry slot/freezing drizzle situation due to the low position and the transfer happening too far north. 4) Some light fluffy snow wraps around for 12 hours but the moderate band sits NW of the city until the coastal moves away and the band weakens and sputters through the city. RESULT: 1" of sleet washed away by sunday afternoon by the freezing drizzle jk it'll probably be one of the best storms in 20 years

This is a picture perfect overrunning precip profile. Would love to be tickled by some of that dark blue on the next run. The red on the Greenland coast is "rage"

this post made me laugh so hard

Also the euro issue with the 18 hour dry slot (freezing drizzle slot) while people 50 miles north get pummelled

Lol. rain now possibly?

Putting this in banter (because it's stupid) but we are about to witness the Most Important UKMET Run of All Time

558 FXUS61 KLWX 202014 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 314 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is continuing to increase for a significant winter storm for the region Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, snow accumulations increase for upslope snow showers in the Alleghenies Wednesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Significant winter storm expected across the Mid- Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. - 2) Accumulating snow is likely along the Alleghenies Wednesday night through Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. Broad upper troughing will remain established across the Great Lks into the northern Mid-Atlantic through at least early next week. Southern stream energy is expected to interact with very cold air to the north to produce moderate to heavy snow across the area this weekend. Looking at most recent model data, the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM remain the furthest south and weakest solutions as it leaves more energy cut off while the 12Z EC and Canadian models show more energy getting absorbed into the northern stream. The 12Z EPS and AIFS are more consistent with their deterministic runs while the GFES shows a very different solution to its deterministic run. Will continue to highlight a significant winter storm affecting the area this weekend in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.