paulythegun

For this, I recommend the Nutty Professor remake, along with the Klumps sequels

12z RFFS (pronounced Arfs!) model. Used 10 to 1 to distort the snow upward

Look at these two friends getting together at the last minute

This site is now offering WeatherNext 2 for free. It's not totally functional yet (you can only get MSLP, 6 hour precip, and 2m temps) but still worth keeping an eye on: https://aguacerowx.com/app

I don't think anyone posted this yet - the 12z ECMWF AI QPF map is kinda wild.....

And the system won't be occluded for another 2-3 days

Mid-Atlantic cold air when moisture finally approaches

All of the models are too warm with their surface temps for this weekend..and here's why: Their snow cover estimates are too aggressive with melting. They're assuming typical snow density and compaction. They can't handle the slow pace of north facing snowcrete melt-off. Please hit the hot dog emoji

There was a massive sewage spill about a month ago just NW of DC. One of the largest (unintentional) spills in U.S. history. But right now, all of that sewage is sitting frozen (or under ice) in the canal area. An amped system would finally flush it out into our waterways where it will settle and create algae blooms along with an enormous stench throughout the spring and summer. Lets get this sewage moving. Amp this thing up! Unleash the sewage blob!

I just mistook water dripping off my roof for flurries. They should probably issue a Special Weather Statement on that

every storm for the rest of the winter

Sublimation is our friend

*sniffs glue* Here it comes!!!!

It's 4 degrees at a station near me north of Capitol Hill but Virginia's DCA station, which is the official station for the city of DC, is at 15F

15z SREF still with 4 members out of 27(?) with over 10" of snow for DCA. Max is 26.3". Good times. The SREF is definitely sniffing out the north trend that I'm imagining on the radar.

yeah....sadly.

It's 8 inches of compressed snow and sleet (harder than concrete) plus a week of record cold. a generational weather event in a municipality that doesn't control its own budget. public transit is barely functional (bus lanes are blocked by mountains of ice) so people are understaffed. Plus it's dangerously cold out. i'm not sure what people are expecting. wednesday and thursday, i had to walk 2 miles to work with my dog on my back in a backpack because there was no one to watch him. great exercise though!

I mean it's a double barrelled low with the second one like 1000 miles southeast of it, originally developing over the Bahamas. Think about it like that, and the precip shield won't bother you as much

OUTRAGEOUS. 10 to 1 snow ratios vastly undersell those totals. I demand a correction!!!

The SREF was created to deal with the failure of January 2000. Therefore, the SREF is right. The End.

SREF has between 0 and 39.56" for DCA. The mean is 11.97' and the median is 2.97". Instead of using either of those, let's go with the average of the max and min: 19.78" of snow for DCA. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

Cyclogenesis going on at the surface under those messy dashes

Need to use the Tropical Atlantic view to really understand what GFS is doing at the surface. It's offscreen on the CONUS view.

I asked Google Gemini to take a look at the 12z WeatherNext model and compare it to 06z. First, it made up a bunch of stuff. Then it made up more stuff. After insulting it literally a dozen times, I was able to get it to at least pretend to give me some data that was plausible. Here, I asked it about trends in the precip shield: The 06z Shield: Showed the edge of the precipitation (roughly 0.01"–0.05" liquid) flirting with the DC/Baltimore line. The 12z Shield: Pushed that shield about 40–60 miles further southeast. The 12z panel for 84 hours out shows DC entirely in the "dry zone" (the white space on the map), with the moisture field cut off near Fredericksburg and the Chesapeake Bay.