Random Chaos

Every. Major. Model.

New advisory up, haven’t seen this one before that I recall: Freezing Spray Advisory URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 312 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543-200415- /O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-250120T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.UP.Y.0001.250120T0500Z-250120T2300Z/ Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 312 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft. For the Freezing Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray expected. * WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island MD to Smith Point VA, Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA, Chester River to Queenstown MD, Eastern Bay, Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River, and Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EST Monday. For the Freezing Spray Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may result in some loss of stability. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare for ice accumulation on their vessel and consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous conditions. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

37.3F, SN, accumulating Ground must be colder than the air.

It’s less than the 43" given to me yesterday. Toss.

7" in fairly undrifted area. Measured drifts up to 21".

Been some nice steady snow for the last 2 hours. Not a ton of accumulation from in, maybe an inch. So hard to tell with the drifting I get.

Comparing the H5 vorticity to past runs, very similar to 18z yesterday.

And 43" on the run before that. If only lol.

Puking snow here in Annapolis:

I finally got outside to measure. I have a modest amount of drifting so had to walk to where I was both out of the wind and out of drifted snow. Measured 6" there. Rest of the area measured 0 to 8" depending on drifting. My deck is bare in places from the light wind removing the snow.

Eyeball estimate of 2" on my deck. Haven’t gone outside to measure yet. Heavy SN+.

Only the 5 foot radius around the DCA snow board. Rest of the city still getting 8+.

SN- where I am near Annapolis. Just started.

Look at KDOX radar. It’s because of beam altitude. Snow is falling but not reaching the ground. So the closer to the radar you lose returns.

33.5/15.9 near Sandy Point State Park, station is affected by the warm bay so expect it to drop once snow starts.

The "yes" icon is broken on mobile:

Gale watch just popped for the tail end of the storm: URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 712 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 ANZ531-532-060815- /O.EXA.KLWX.GL.A.0002.250107T0300Z-250108T0300Z/ Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- 712 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft possible. * WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island MD to North Beach MD. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

I’m honestly hoping that we don’t get 43" in Annapolis. Not sure how well roofs will handle that much.

That’s a 40.2" number right over me!

Now that’s a deathband! 18z gfs hr 156, that’s some crazy modeled snow rates over Phili!

33.9/12.7

I’m loving the 7% chance of 18"! (From LWX winter page) Location Low-End Amount Expected Amount High-End Amount Chance of Seeing More Than 0.1" 1" 2" 4" 6" 8" 12" 18" Annapolis, MD 4" 7" 17" 100% 98% 97% 92% 80% 65% 35% 7%

My Vantage Pro is about 15 feet above the Chesapeake Bay at the end of 100ft pier. Never close to any inland sensor.

32/11 high thin clouds

31F / 11F dew point. Let’s bring this storm!