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ariof

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Everything posted by ariof

  1. Radiation? I know MVY can radiate quite well.
  2. Maybe the grinch will come early this year. (I know, I know, he'll be right on schedule.)
  3. Wishing a happy Model-Runs-Come-Out-An-Hour-Earlier Day to all who celebrate. [Which is probably just this forum, but still]
  4. I have a vested interest on the weather on Monday between Hopkinton and BOS, starting a thread here in case anyone else wants to discuss. BOX says: Sunday appears to be the transitioning point towards more unsettled weather as a robust cutoff low approaches from the southwest. At this time, it appears that this low will pass well to our northwest over the Great Lakes region , but an associated cold front may bring the first chance for appreciable rain to the region during the late Sunday-early Monday timeframe. That seems reasonable and has ensemble guidance, although models are now suggesting the fropa might get held back. The big question is the timing. If the fropa is on Sunday afternoon or evening, it could lead to a mild-but-not-hot, dry, and breezy (with a tailwind!) marathon. (April has the most easterly winds of any month in BOS, which of course the marathon often tries to run into). Slower evolution of the big ULL may allow a backdoor cold front to push in from the coast and keep it cool (the GFS and Canadian have this on Saturday afternoon). If it doesn't, though, a more SWerly flow could push warmer temperatures in, and then there could always be rain (although maybe not 2018-level biblical flood rain) as the 12Z Canadian shows (but rain and cooler temperatures than the GFS). The latest GFS has a slower fropa with warmer, muggier conditions on Monday overwhelming the NE surface flow during the race and the fropa not until Monday evening, while at another extreme 18Z last night it was a faster fropa with strong WSW tailwinds (cough 2011 cough). With Eliud Kipchoge running, that could lead to a course record and perhaps close to the two hour barrier, which has never been done without pacers (although it wouldn't count as a world record because the Boston course is downhill and too straight). Anyway, I'm hoping for 52, cloudy, with a W-WSWerly breeze (really WSW shifting WNW right around when I make the turn by the firehouse in Newton) but I'll have to follow the model evolution for the next few days.
  5. Checking the snowfall at Pinkham Notch on xmACIS which has data back to 1930 (thanks, Joe). Data isn't perfect but is pretty good. Their highest year was 1968-1969 with 323" which may never be touched including 160" from Feb 4 to March 5. This year was BN through January, on Jan 21 it was at 52" (9" BN). Since then, ~150" has brought it to 8th overall, and 4th highest for this day. If the models are to be believed, it will be third overall within the next couple of weeks, trailing only '69 an '58. You wouldn't know it 100 miles south, but they're having a snowy winter up there even if it's warm. Tucks might ski well into May this year!
  6. 2020 and 2022 yes, but 2021 was wet (especially down in SNE but even up north).
  7. Yankee Publishing has a webcam which takes a static image every hour. They've been in the pivot firehose since the storm started at 1600', I assume they're north of 24" by now. Here's a GIF of the storm (missing the image from 0700).
  8. Meanwhile Mount Snow is reporting 34"
  9. Mixed RASN in Cambridge. "Chunky Rain" status.
  10. Not even close. Most recent months have cracked 200 (with no threats that happens. Mehbruary indeed.) but last January’s storm was 406!
  11. GFS out to 3/28 has a high in BOS of 55 … which would give March a lower high temp than Dec, Jan or Feb. Of course, the real outlier was 2020, when April had a high of 62, lower than any other month that year (or the preceding Nov or Dec).
  12. 15 mb in 12h over CHH … it's not quite bombogenesis, baby, but it's going in the right direction.
  13. 06Z on Tuesday has gone from 992mb at 41.72, 70.14 to 1000mb at 37.11, 70.14. Just a 4˚/276SM shift south. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  14. A friend out in TRK had photos of the Auburn Ski Club building up on Donner Pass (right near the snow lab) from a few years ago where people were going in and out the third floor by the end of the season. Great photos on their linked Facebook. They build warming cabins on stilts and they're still drifting over (or as a friend says: "it's not a warming hut, it's a snow gauge"). They're up on I-80 so at the whims of the highway and it seems they've been closed more than open recently. They're talking of skiing until July 4.
  15. Looking back at that; April 1 1997 reported 22.4" of snow on 0.65" of QPF and having shoveled that storm I'm guessing a lot of that snow didn't make it in the can because it was not, as I recall, 30:1 ratio snow.
  16. ofc they spent most of the week selling it as a "historic" storm in the top 10 (to be fair, their top 10 is kind of weak sauce) and then it turns into a foot of snow. Only one poster who started this thread was doing that here. (And to be fair, the models were pushing 12-24 for a while, and it wound up at the lower end of that anyway.
  17. Technically that was in 2011. In October.
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