ariof

Come on, you left this just sitting there …

It's only about a 450 mile jump. Like when we see a low go from ACK to BUF …

Congrats ACK

~133 miles, which is just about the GFS 12" gradient (BGR-BOS) versus the NAM (PHL-HPN-???)

NAM vs GFS are only two degrees apart at 84h.

Just going to point out that this thread is now at 121 pages and we are only getting into the meso range. And the local stores aren't yet out of two-prong toasters (yet).

Feb 06 2013 12Z NAM had 50-70" in BOS-BED-BVY, and showed 30-45 right up until the start of the event. Not even a huge bust; GFS was 15-20 and the final tally in Boston was 25.

SOP at BOS is that if there's something along the lines of this, BOS closes. The state issues a travel ban, they don't want people on the roads, and BOS wants the ramps empty so they can clear snow. It works exceedingly well, and the airport can get back to full ops the next day, as opposed to JFK, which usually takes a week to dig out. So unless this goes well inland or ots, I wouldn't be surprised if this flight is proactively canceled on Friday.

GON-PSM is only Western Mass if you're in Boston. That would be a track which would make anyone west of Worcester pretty happy.

Looks about right. Hard to complain though living on Randolph Hill.

Some wild inversion temperature differentials in NNE right now. A station at Appalachia is reporting 37˚ and it's 17˚ in Gorham. Berlin is reporting 38˚ while KBML in the valley up the road is at 11˚ with a daily high of 15˚ (so far). Nowhere in interior Maine north of PWM made it past 20 with the CAD in place, everything NW of the notches is nearly 40. Models had Maine up in the 30s today FWIW.

And right back to -15 it seems.

It's all about timing and not being on the ball with any treatment. My favorite was 2/8/17. Not a flash freeze but CAD which I think was discussed but didn't even show up on the mesos. And then it would have been fine except a light rain shower passed through (aircraft were reporting 25 at KBOS and 56 a few thousand feet up) and put down 0.1" of ice on everything right before morning rush hour and the results were about as expected up to and including a 55-car pileup on 128. Basically this + this = chaos, when the first this was 5 or 10 degrees colder than modeled. Just an epic, epic bust. And worse, ZR the morning before had been forecast but benign, not that this was forecast until this forum (your's truly included) went out and tried to run in the morning.

This event is like Pedro facing the NL all-stars in 1999: All whiffs.

The radar shows a mix up to the Notch, but the Cranmore webcam shows SN. Looks like the Coos County Line is the boundary on radar

The deformation band over YYZ looks impressive based on the traffic maps. Toronto doesn't get lots of big storms; they average about as much snow as BOS but to get a storm of this magnitude sort of requires this odd track. I can't find full data but they haven't had a calendar day with >12" of snow since 1999. Everyone appears to have gone to work per webcams, so they're a couple of spinouts from a Dec, 2007 in Boston where the plows can't keep up and everyone gets snowed in. They won't have a Virginia situation, probably, because people have snow tires and generally know how to handle snow.

Cheap high at KBOS this evening; it was 26˚ at 2000 and now 34˚ and climbing. Quite a gradient roughly along Route 1 north of 128 per wundermap stations; 33 east of it, 22 west, and temps climbing over the course of the hour likely given the wind shift. Those stations (this one for example) in the mid-30s were in the mid-10s at 2000.

I've made the drive over 101 from Peterborough to Keene many times. Often green grass on either side and a foot of snow up the hill. The microclimates of 1000' of elevation in southern/central New England are very real. There's also the northwest-of-the-Whites snow hole. It's colder there, but anything with an easterly fetch gets dried up.

Since a lot of it is a nat gas issue they should probably be everywhere they can telling people that if it gets real cold to turn the heat down to 60. No need to bust pipes, but if enough people went from 68 to 60 it would save a good deal of gas which could be put back into the electricity system. Doubt they'll try that, though. Now, if a few prissy folks on the Cape and Vineyard hadn't been tilting at windmills for the last two decades, we'd have a lot of extra generation power offshore for much of the cold events.

Between hours 60 and 72 the NAM SLP moves west by 0.75˚ of latitude. Which would be fine if it weren't starting over ORF.

I'd take that snowfall map. But, yeah, there's a long way to go with this one.

I think that was more of a "no one believes this" but yes it was forecast several days out. The numbers kept going up, I too remember 6-12" the night before (afternoon high of 63) and 10-14" the morning of. I think it took some time to change over on the coast, KBOS only reported 3" on the 31st but MQE had 15". Yeah climo would not suggest 2'+ that time of year. If it happened today this site would mostly be posts about sun angle.

IIRC we walked out of middle school wondering where the snow had come from. No one as prepared. And this was only a few months after April when the mets had called for a changeover between 1600 and 1800 and it changed at 1030.

Yeah I was driving SYR-BOS the day before that and had to leave early to make sure I didn't get caught in it. From various notes, logs and memories it stayed mostly snow NW of a LEB-IZG line. The wikipedia page for that is mostly about the severe wx down south, but has a nice shot of the satellite. Looks like it was over TN, so it must have bounced east.

It's (ic)on